美联储最新美国经济状况报告（俗称_褐皮书_）_关税焦虑_大爆发（英）2025_56页_1mb

报告摘要

Economic Activity: Overall growth minimal; non-auto spending declined, but vehicle/some nondurable sales robust due to tariff anticipation. Leisure and business travel down. Home sales increased but inventories low. CRE slight expansion supported by multifamily. Loan demand flat, some non-financial services demand deteriorated.
Labor Markets: Employment little changed or slight increase; hiring cautious due to uncertainty. Government/recipient roles saw more declines. Wages modest growth, but slower in many areas. Supply constraints noted in some sectors.
Prices: Prices increased moderately to significantly, attributed mainly to tariffs. Firms anticipate higher costs, but some face margin compression.

Boston: IT services strong growth, tariffs heighten uncertainty. Tourism/retail mixed, declining in some areas. CRE demand slowing due to policy cuts/uncertainty.
New York: Manufacturing decline, employment/stable, prices up significantly. Concerns over trade tariffs. Tourism/hospitality softened, international visits drop.
Philadelphia/Other: Slight economic declines, employment muted, price increases steady/moderate. Retail declined slight. Auto sales strong due to tariff avoidance.
Overall Trends: Tariffs reduce confidence, pulling forward demand. Energy mixed; agriculture stable regionally. Banking cautious on loans despite varying demand forecasts.

Across regions, prices increased moderately to significantly, tied to tariff impacts and input cost hikes.
Passing through tariffs to consumers widespread, but with strategic pricing by some.

展开完整摘要