2022-09-13-兰德-美国经济是否受益于美国联盟和前沿军事存在_（英）_89页_608kb

Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence?

The report examines the economic impacts of U.S. alliances and forward military presence as part of U.S. grand strategy decisions. Advocates argue these security policies enhance economic welfare, while others question these claims. The U.S. explores how alliances and military engagement might benefit the economy, but the debate remains unresolved due to gaps in research.

Key Case Studies and Findings

• Alliance Impact on Trade: Studies globally show alliances correlate with higher trade between partners, but the direction of causality between trade and alliances is uncertain. Further, defense alliances may influence trade costs, with simulations suggesting equivalent effects to moderate tariff reductions.

• Bilateral Trade and Investment: Economic data indicates U.S. alliances lead to increased exports, though the impact on U.S. GDP is modest. A model testing NATO’s influence found a positive effect on U.S. manufactured goods trade and consumer purchasing power if the U.S. continued its NATO participation. Withdrawal from NATO projected a welfare loss for the U.S. economy.

• War and Economic Stability: Foreign conflicts negatively impact U.S. trade and investment by straining supply chains, but the literature does not fully assess long-term economic welfare impacts. Alliances reduce risks of conflict, offering potential indirect economic gains.

Limitations and Recommendations

• The literature focuses on intermediates such as trade and investment, not overall U.S. welfare. Gaps exist in understanding distributional effects, mechanisms linking alliances to increased trade, and comparing military engagement with trade agreements.

• Future research should examine military engagement on U.S. economic welfare directly, explore mechanisms (lateral leverage or risk reduction), and assess adjustment costs from foreign wars and alliance termination. The globalized impacts of war require deeper analysis specific to U.S. interests.

Conclusion

U.S. alliances and military presence yield substantial benefits in trade, particularly with NATO allies, but the overall effects on U.S. economic welfare are mixed given methodological constraints. These findings should inform discussions on U.S. grand strategy beyond narrow economic considerations. Further systematic research is needed to understand the economic impacts of U.S. strategic posture.