> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** 中银国际固定收益研究BOCI Fixed Income Research 2026. 01. 29 Wiley Huang (黄为一), CFA (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com 利率、汇率、信用 Rates, Currencies & Credits 中国固定收益研究China Fixed Income Research # 1月FOMC：按兵不动、模糊指引 本次会议波澜不惊。鉴于12月美联储已暗示将放缓降息步伐，加之近期失业率回落、通胀依然高企，一系列数据进一步强化了“按兵不动”的基调。因此，1月FOMC维持利率不变符合市场一致预期。 # 会议声明措辞略显鹰派，主要反映近期经济的进展。 ■ 声明将增长的表述从“moderate”升级至“solid”，失业率描述改为“逐渐稳定”。在风险评估部分，删去了“就业下行风险上升”的表述，意味着风险趋于均衡，进一步强化暂缓降息的政策基调。 投票环节中，Miran和Waller投反对票，认为应该进一步降息25个基点。Miran的鸽派立场在预期之内；Waller的反对票或暗示Waller仍试图在美联储主席提名落定前，通过鲜明的政策主张进行最后的博弈。在提出异议后，预测市场对其提名的预期有所攀升。 # 新闻发布会Powell基调中性偏鸽，对冲鹰派声明。 ■ 辩证看待劳动力市场Powell解释删去“就业下行风险上升”的表述，是因为1）劳动力市场有企稳迹象；2）经济前景的改善将对劳动力需求产生积极影响。但后续Powell淡化删去该表述的重要性。Powell指出Conference Board职位空缺指标处于低位，U6失业指标中因经济原因而从事兼职工作的子项明显上升，均是劳动力持续降温的信号。针对GDP数据强劲与就业数据疲软的矛盾，Powell引用传统观点表示，此类背离出现时，劳动力市场数据更为可靠。此外，当前劳动力供需同步下降的弱平衡，虽可被视为“充分就业”，但并非美联储所追求的“最大就业”理想状态。 通胀走势鸽派指引Powell对通胀的态度也偏乐观，他指出大部分关税已经传导到整个经济中。现在之所以依然保持警惕，是因为关税大部分成本由中间企业承担，而这些企业明确表示，计划将剩余成本转嫁给消费者。基于此，美联储预计关税带来的通胀效应将在年中左右见顶。值得注意的，在12月议息会议中Powell认为商品通胀将在26年一季度见顶，本次表述时间节点略有延后。 货币政策仍处降息周期，但暗示空间有限Powell指出当前利率处于中性区间的偏高端，12月点阵图中19位官员有15位认为有额外降息空间；加息并非任何官员对下一步行动的基本假设。从数据来看，政策应该属于大致中性的，或者略微偏紧一些（“loosely neutral or somewhat restrictive”）。这一表述确认当前仍处于降息周期之中，但也暗示如果降息的终点是中性而非宽松，未来降息空间相对有限。 Powell 回避了特朗普政府施压、其任期结束后是否留任理事和美元汇率等热点问题。但在被问及给继任者的建议时, Powell 表示应该远离政治, 努力赢得国会的信任, 并对美联储员工的专业性给予高度赞扬。 总体来说，这次会议是一个过渡性的会议，对资产价格的影响非常有限。基于会议释放的信号，我们依旧维持今年两次降息判断。年中通胀见顶的基准情形，也意味着两次降息大概率将出现在新联储主席任上。 附录1：FOMC声明变更 <table><tr><td>Economy 经济</td><td>Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have slowed this year remained low, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September shown some signs of stabilization. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.</td></tr><tr><td>Target 目标</td><td>The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.</td></tr><tr><td>Decision 决定</td><td>In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower maintain the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.</td></tr><tr><td>Assessment 评估</td><td>In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.</td></tr><tr><td>Vote 投票</td><td>Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Anna Paulson. Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2¼ percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.</td></tr></table> 数据来源：美联储官网，中银国际研究 # Certifications and Important Disclosure All views expressed in this material reflect the personal views of each analyst about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. In addition, no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this material. Except as disclosed herein, each analyst declares that (i) neither he/she nor his/her associate has any financial interests in relation to the issuer reviewed by the analyst, and (ii) neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of the issuer reviewed by the analyst. For the purposes of these certifications, the term "associate" includes members of the analyst's household as defined by FINRA. 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