2024-09-01-世界银行-坦桑尼亚经济更新_第21期-利用机会在坦桑尼亚建立气候智能型和有竞争力的畜牧业（英）_72页_4mb

Tanzania Economic Update Summary

Recent Economic Developments

• Tanzania's economy grew steadily at 5.2% YoY in 2023, supported by strong services and tourism.
• Poverty reduction remains slow, hindered by structural issues, though inflation stayed low at around 3% in 2024.
• Public spending rose during FY23/24, narrowing the fiscal deficit to 3.2% of GDP.
• The current-account deficit improved due to gold exports and reduced imports.

Macroeconomic Outlook

• GDP projected to grow at 5.4% in 2024, averaging 6% medium-term.
• Inflation expected to remain stable under monetary reforms.
• Public investment key to narrowing the CAD and financing climate-smart initiatives.

Special Focus: Climate-Smart and Competitive Livestock Sector

• Tanzania's livestock sector is large but underproductive; public investment needs $546 million over five years.
• Climate change impacts include heat stress, water scarcity, and disease, requiring adaptation strategies.
• Opportunities include market diversification through processing, value addition, and leveraging indigenous breeds.
• Recommendations include boosting productivity, enhancing private investment, carbon finance, and One Health approaches.

Policy Recommendations

• Prioritize climate-smart investments in livestock with significant public expenditure.
• Strengthen private sector collaboration and innovation for transformative growth.
• Ensure effective implementation of policies to enhance resilience and competitiveness.

Executive Summary

• Tanzania's economy performed robustly amidst climate shocks, contributing to slow poverty reduction.
• Focuses on catalyzing private investment, ensuring fiscal sustainability, and transitioning to low-carbon growth.

Recent Trends

• GDP Growth steady at 5.2% YoY, fueled by services and tourism.
• Poverty Rate drops slightly but remains high at 43% (international line).
• Inflation controlled despite external pressures; core inflation subsiding.

Fiscal Performance

• Fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.2% of GDP, reflecting tax revenue gains and spending control.
• Revenue collections surged by 27.4%, driven by IT systems and campaigns.

Balance-of-Payments

• CAD narrowed to US$425.7M (2.2% of GDP), aided by tourism and gold exports.
• Foreign reserves at US$5.3B, but forex market tensions persist.

Macro Outlook and RisKS

• GDP growth projected at 5.4% (5.6% prior revision).
• RisKS: Delayed reforms, climate change, global slowdown.

List of Recommendations

• Boost public investment in climate-smart livestock (US$546M over five years).
• Enhance private sector participation and innovation.
• Implement methane mitigation strategies for carbon finance.
• Strengthen sector governance and coordination.

Summary of Special Focuses

• Prioritizing climate-smart livestock development to achieve economic and environmental goals.
• Catalyzing investment, productivity, and market access through key reforms and innovations.