> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 每一代人都有自己的 Labubu # 从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局 “每一代人都有自己的 Labubu”看似是对潮流的调侃，实则是对消费代际更替的归纳总结。在中国经济迈向高质量发展的关键阶段，能否以新供给承接新需求，正成为判断优质资产的关键。Labubu 的走红并非偶然，而是代际审美、情绪符号与身份表达共同作用的结果。每一代人都愿意为其反复买单的精神载体，而《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》（《实施方案》）为这一轮代际更替提供了制度化框架，使新需求×新供给的结构性变化更加清晰。在这一背景下，如何寻找新一代的代际符号？这样的标的在于具备捕捉情绪趋势、打造可延展的世界观、拥有柔性高效的供应链，并能够在多场景、多业态和多渠道中实现商业化。换句话说，它们具备持续造梦的能力。 每一代人的Labubu本质上是那个时代的精神载体。对70后而言，它是象征工业文明奇迹的变形金刚；对80后、90后而言，它是耐克Air Jordan、索尼Walkman、任天堂红白机、小霸王游戏机，是个性觉醒与身份认同的象征；而对当下的Z世代，盲盒、电竞皮肤与各类数字化IP，则构成了新的情绪坐标系。代际审美与情绪结构的迭代，折射出中国消费市场的新需求变迁。也正是在这一趋势之下，《实施方案》提出培育的3个万亿级与10个千亿级消费热点，以精准政策作为基础，提高资源配置效率，以柔性制造和数字化能力作为骨架，使供给端能够快速响应细分需求，以文化叙事与IP生态作为灵魂，为产品注入可传递与可共鸣的精神价值。因此，“每一代人都有自己的Labubu”并不是一句简单的调侃，而是观察消费趋势、理解代际需求、判断结构性机会之后的归纳总结。它提醒我们，未来消费增长的空间是捕捉每一代人的文化、情绪与身份的微妙变化。也是正是在这样的框架下，3个万亿级、10个千亿级消费热点，承载着中国消费新需求的长周期潜力。 未来的消费：从购买商品转向订阅生活。此次《实施方案》政策例行吹风会上“未来的消费，不再是购买一件商品，应该说是订阅一种生活”，这一表述刻画了新消费的新变化。人群分层、兴趣导向与场景叠加共同推动消费从物质获取迈向体验认同，而这包含了三个维度的变化。一是空间维度方面，消费场景从传统商场延展至文旅小镇、露营营地、主题乐园、体育街区，并与虚拟空间深度融合，使消费在不同的生活半径中随时触发。二是时间维度方面，消费从一次性购买走向长期关系，盲盒的随机惊喜、会员订阅的持续交互、内容更新的循环消费。三是关系维度方面，消费者从单一的买家角色进一步发展为内容共创者与情绪传播者，品牌价值由社区关系与文化认同共同构建。正因如此，此次《实施方案》中关注“首发平台”、“沉浸式体验”、“电竞娱乐”、“文旅数智化”等关键词，明确指向一个以场景为单位进行供需匹配的阶段，新供给主动进入消费者生活的每一个情绪节点。 新需求：每一代人心中的Labubu。从订阅生活到情绪消费，新需求的具象化往往来自代际的集体选择，也正因此，新需求最直观的形式就是每一代人心中的Labubu。例如，潮玩市场的快速扩张，背后是需求结构的深层改变。《潮玩产业发展报告》数据显示，中国潮玩市场预计在2022至2026年保持约 $24\%$ 的复合增速。对于年轻人而言，Labubu之所以能够脱颖而出，是因为它精准击中了三类情绪需求。一是身份认同，它象征着某个社交群体，是圈层关系的通行证。二是情绪治愈，盲盒的随机性与IP的陪伴属性构成了高压生活下的情绪出口。三是自我叙事，每个IP背后都预留足够的想象空间，使消费者得以在其中投射自己的故事。这些特征与《实施方案》中强调的兴趣消费场景赋能国潮文创等方向高度一致。政策所瞄准的目标并非复制某个爆款，而是打造一套能够持续 2025年12月16日 程实，博士 (852) 2683 3231 shi.cheng@icbci.com 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com # 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重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其裁明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2025版权所有。保留一切权利。 # 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