> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # FDI Summary for 2025 and Outlook for 2026 ## Core Content Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased by 15% in 2025, reaching USD 1,660 billion. When excluding large fluctuations in selected European economies, the growth was more moderate at 6%. The increase was uneven across OECD countries, with some European nations showing the largest gains, while non-OECD G20 economies experienced more consistent growth. China saw a rebound in FDI inflows after three years of decline, driven by intra-company loans and reinvested earnings. The United States, China, and Brazil were the top three FDI destinations in 2025, while the United States, Japan, and China were the leading sources of FDI outflows. Cross-border M&A activity remained resilient, with a notable rebound in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) from a decade-low in 2024. However, greenfield investment stalled in 2025, with a decline in both the number of announced projects and capital spending, particularly affecting EMDEs. Looking ahead, geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are expected to negatively impact the FDI outlook for 2026. The conflict in the Middle East and continued economic uncertainty are likely to dampen investment activity, while prolonged inflation, influenced by higher energy prices, could further challenge growth prospects. ## Main Points - **FDI Flows in 2025**: - Global FDI flows increased by 15% to USD 1,660 billion. - Excluding European fluctuations, growth was 6%. - Inflow growth was uneven, with notable increases in EMDEs and rebounds in some OECD countries. - China rebounded after three years of decline. - **FDI Inflows**: - OECD area FDI inflows increased by 9% to USD 748 billion. - Inflow declines were observed in Austria, Norway, and Australia, primarily due to reduced equity inflows. - EU area FDI inflows dropped by 5%, with declines in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, partially offset by rebounds in Ireland and a surge in Germany. - **FDI Outflows**: - OECD area FDI outflows increased by 12% to USD 1,221 billion. - Excluding European fluctuations, outflows were stable. - Japan was the largest OECD source of FDI outflows, followed by France and the United States. - G20 non-OECD economies saw a 42% increase in FDI inflows, excluding Argentina, Indonesia, and South Africa. - **FDI Income**: - FDI income in the OECD area reached 2.6% and 3.3% of GDP for inflows and outflows, respectively. - FDI earnings payable by OECD affiliates increased by 10%, with reinvested earnings rising by 24%. - FDI earnings receivable by OECD parent companies also increased by 10%, with reinvested earnings rising by 34%. - The United States was the largest recipient of FDI earnings receivable. - **M&A Activity**: - Cross-border M&A activity remained resilient in 2025, with deal values up 8% and a rebound in EMDEs from 2024. - The top five target economies accounted for over half of the total deal value, with the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands being the most targeted. - The top five ultimate investing economies accounted for 53% of total deal value, with the United States, Canada, France, Japan, and Germany as the main investors. - **Greenfield Investment**: - Greenfield investment stalled in 2025, with capital spending and the number of projects declining by 3% and 14%, respectively. - EMDEs were particularly affected, with capital expenditure decreasing by 24% in the manufacturing sector. - AEs saw an 18% increase in greenfield investment, mainly in infrastructure, with notable projects in France and the United States. - Greenfield investment was highly concentrated, with 46% of capital expenditure directed to five host economies (United States, France, India, the United Kingdom, and Australia). ## Key Information - **FDI Destinations**: United States (USD 288 billion), China (USD 80 billion), and Brazil (USD 77 billion) were the top three FDI inflow destinations in 2025. - **FDI Sources**: United States (USD 310 billion), Japan (USD 186 billion), and China (USD 157 billion) were the leading FDI outflow sources. - **M&A Activity**: The three largest M&A deals in 2025 were in the Netherlands (USD 18 billion), Germany (USD 16 billion), and the United Arab Emirates (USD 14 billion). - **Greenfield Projects**: In 2025, greenfield investment in EMDEs declined, while AEs saw an increase, driven by infrastructure projects. - **Outlook for 2026**: Geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are expected to negatively affect FDI flows, with a possible slowdown in M&A activity and continued stagnation in greenfield investment.