> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 利率下行，风险上行 2025年12月美联储议息会议点评 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布下调基准利率25个基点到 $3.50\% - 3.75\%$ ，与市场预期一致。尽管当前美国通胀水平尚未回到目标区间，但需求回落与通胀粘性削弱的组合已逐步显现。劳动力市场亦呈现温和恶化，企业在成本与需求双重压力下缩减招聘，失业率抬升至 $4.4\%$ 的水平。针对未来的货币政策，美国旧金山联储近期的工作论文指出关税上调对宏观经济的影响可能与传统理论预期有所不同。研究显示，关税冲击并不推升通胀，反而具有萎缩需求、抑制通胀的特征。在高利率与贸易不确定性叠加的环境中，这种冲击或将导致先衰退、后通缩的风险。这为未来美联储判断关税政策的具体影响提供了理论参考。对于美国经济而言，一方面，高利率的累积效应下实体经济承压，居民消费能力和信心正在弱化。另一方面，资本市场受人工智能主题推动繁荣，支撑了部分消费支出。但若金融-消费韧性链条断裂甚至反转，衰退可能迅速显性化。在此背景下，货币政策重心转向稳定增长与稳固信心是更为合适的。2026年预计美联储下调政策利率总计50-75个基点，使其回归大约 $3\%$ 左右的中性区间水平，以应对贸易政策与财政不确定性带来的持续扰动。 美联储如期降息25个基点。北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布下调基准利率25个基点到 $3.50\% - 3.75\%$ ，与市场预期一致。面对需求下滑与劳动力市场降温，美联储选择顺应当前经济环境，稳定增长信心。一方面是稳中放缓的通胀水平。美国9月PCE物价指数环比上涨 $0.3\%$ ，同比上涨 $2.8\%$ ；核心PCE物价指数环比上涨 $0.2\%$ ，同比上涨 $2.8\%$ ；超级核心个人消费支出同比下滑至 $3.25\%$ 。整体来看，尽管通胀水平尚未回到目标区间，但需求回落与通胀粘性削弱的组合已在逐步显现。另一方面是疲软加剧的劳动力市场。9月非农数据显示，失业率升至四年来高位的 $4.4\%$ 。由于政府停摆影响，10月非农数据将不再发布，11月非农数据亦未能在本次议息会议前公布。官方就业指标的缺失可能使得市场对其他就业数据的依赖度上升，最新ADP私营部门就业数据显示美国劳动力市场显著降温，11月私营岗位减少3.2万个，企业招聘意愿明显减弱。其中小型企业为主要拖累减少12万个岗位，而大型企业则净增9万个岗位，显示市场调整阶段资源向规模优势企业集中。仅有少数行业实现就业增长，薪资增长也有所降温。综合通胀和就业的最新变化，其扰动力主要来自三方面：一是高利率政策的累积滞后效应正在加速传导，二是关税政策推升成本与不确定性，三是政府停摆对私营部门的扩散效应正在显现。 关税冲击可能反而抑制通胀。传统认知和市场预期普遍认为关税上调将推升进口成本，进一步传导至消费品价格，从而迫使央行放缓降息节奏。然而，美国旧金山联储2025年发布的工作论文1发现关税上调对宏观经济的影响与传统理论预期有所不同：关税冲击或并不推升通胀，反而具有萎缩需求、抑制通胀的特征。该研究基于1870年至今长达150年的历史数据，剔除了经济周期主动调节的干扰因素，识别出外生的关税变动，并将其视为经济体面临的真实政策冲击进行分析。历史经验显示，关税上调提高了政策和贸易环境的不确定性，强化了金融市场的风险偏好收缩，股市回报率下跌、波动率上升，财富效应转弱进而制约消费支出。企业生产和投资计划延后，进口替代难以完全弥补外部供给冲击，导致经济增长承压。关税主导效应表现为典型的负需求冲击，包括抑制需求、推高失业率与拉低经济增长。需求收缩在多个渠道同时显现，使得通 2025年12月11日 程实，博士 (852) 2683 3231 shi.cheng@icbci.com 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.com # 相关研究： 12/5/2025：《人工智能浪潮中的真实与泡影》 11/24/2025：《在临界中博弈路径——2026年全球大类资产展望》 11/21/2025：《在交汇中重塑平衡——2026年香港经济展望》 11/20/2025：《在变化中破局开新——2026年中国经济展望》 11/17/2025：《在混沌中构建秩序——2026年全球经济展望》 10/30/2025：《加速降息进行时——2025年10月美联储议息会议点评》 10/22/2025：《从安倍经济学到早苗经济学》 10/14/2025：《创新的力量——2025年诺贝尔经济学奖点评》 10/14/2025：《货币政策跨境传导的美元渠道》 9/30/2025：《顺应民心所向，激发内需动能》 9/18/2025：《规则之外，预期之内——2025年9月美联储议息会议点评》 9/11/2025：《老去的债务与新生的风险》 8/27/2025：《厚积薄发，静水流深-人工智能+的微观观察与宏观潜能》 8/25/2025：《以变应变：美联储政策的转折与框架的回归——2025年Jackson Hole会议点评》 8/13/2025：《数字的修正与预期的转折》 7/31/2025：《持之有故——2025年7月美联储议息会议点评》 7/28/2025：《地缘的围墙创新的阶梯》 胀下行压力增强。而市场担忧的成本推动型通胀效应往往不具备持续性，且幅度更弱。因此，关税上调可能未必会如传统供给冲击那样引发通胀加速，总体来说，该研究认为关税冲击的主要宏观特征与传统观点恰恰相反。短期内，关税上调会抑制经济活动并降低通胀，表现为总需求收缩冲击的特征，而非标准模型中的成本推动冲击。这为未来美联储分析和应对关税政策带来的复杂效应提供了一定的理论参考。 美国经济冰火两重天，联储内部分歧加大。关于关税的影响及其对物价走向的传导机制，一直是联储争论和关注的核心议题之一。经济结构性的“冷热不均”进一步放大了联储内部在政策路径上的分歧。一方面是企业定价行为的分化。美联储近期发布的褐皮书提到部分企业尝试将价格压力向消费者转嫁，通过提高商品售价来维持利润空间；但也有部分企业由于需求偏弱、竞争激烈、消费者价格敏感而不敢贸然提价，只能自行吸收成本。这直接压缩了利润率，也让企业在投资、扩张和招聘上变得更加谨慎。利润缩减与成本上升的双重夹击，使企业经营风险显著上升，特别是零售领域承受着成本和需求的双重压力。另一方面是消费者行为的分化。关税带来的成本上涨正在逐步侵蚀居民实际购买力，并抑制未来消费增长。消费者特别是中低收入群体的消费趋于谨慎，使零售商品价格传导能力受限。密歇根大学消费者信心调查也显示，消费者信心普遍下降，且这种下降趋势在不同人口群体中普遍存在。而股票持有者则除外，股市繁荣正在支撑一小部分富裕消费者的支出，但这并不能反映大多数美国人的财务状况，同时这也正是美国经济的一个风险所在。当前美国股市上涨主要由人工智能相关企业推动，这些企业仅占就业的一小部分。美联储官员沃勒在演讲中曾提过，尽管人工智能在2021年至2024年间对股市增长和企业利润的贡献显著提升，人工智能相关企业的就业人数却稳定在非农就业人数的 $3\%$ 以下。考虑到美国个人消费支出占GDP比重近七成，支出放缓对GDP增长产生的负面影响可能更为显著。因此，保持适度宽松的货币政策走向是更为合适的。2026年预计美联储降息共计50-75个基点，使联邦基金利率接近更中性的水平。此后联储可能保持一段时间的观望立场，以评估货币政策传导、财政与金融多重不确定性对经济的持续影响。 # 参考文献： Barnichon, R., & Singh, S. (2025). What is a tariff shock? Insights from 150 years of tariff policy (FRBSF Working Paper No. 2025-26). Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其载明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2025版权所有。保留一切权利。 # UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). 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