2025-05-15-Jefferies-富邑葡萄酒集团（TWE）_蒂姆决定时间_7页_176kb

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) equity research maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of AUD 15.00, representing a 68% upside from the current price of AUD 8.95. The report highlights a CEO change, with outgoing CEO Tim Ford leaving on September 30, 2025, and new CEO Sam Fischer taking over from October 27, 2025. Ford's departure without a transition period suggests continuity, but potential risks arise from persistent US market weakness and growing inventory issues in China.

Financially, TWE expects FY25 earnings before interest, tax, and amortization (EBIT) to be at the low end of AUD 780-810 million, tracking in line with previous guidance. Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a price target based on a discounted cash flow model, though long-term Penfolds targets face de-risking due to Chinese inventory buildup. The current valuation includes a dividend yield increasing to 5.4% and a downward EV/EBITDAS to 9.3x.

Key risks include market volatility and potential share price decline, offset by TWE's position as the world's largest self-distributing wine company, with iconic brands. The stock is considered undervalued given depressed pricing despite low expectations.