IMF-经济构造_美国经济结构变化和生产率趋势（英）-2025.8_52页_5mb

Economic Tectonics: Structural Changes and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy has undergone significant structural transformations in recent decades, marked by a divergence in employment, value added, and productivity between the tradable and nontradable sectors.

Key Changes in Economic Structure

Employment and Value Added

• By 2023, the nontradable sector accounted for 77% of total employment and 68% of real value added, absorbing nearly all incremental employment gains.
• The tradable sector's employment share leveled off after declining for several decades, though its value-added growth remained stronger.
• During the COVID-19 pandemic, the nontradable sector (excluding healthcare) experienced a sharper employment decline compared to the tradable sector due to its domestic demand constraints.

Resiliency and Teleworkability

• Remote work capabilities were highest in the knowledge economy, which is largely part of the tradable sector.
• Teleworkable industries showed greater resilience during the pandemic, such as computer systems design and related services.
• Nontradable industries showed varying levels of resilience, with some, like information and finance, benefiting despite their nontradable nature, partly due to the knowledge economy's influence.

Productivity Trends

• The tradeable sector experienced robust productivity growth (near 3% annually from 1998 to 2023), while the nontradable sector grew at just 0.7%.
• Widening productivity gaps contribute to rising income inequality.
• Productivity declined broadly during the post-GFC period and post-pandemic until 2023.
• Within the tradeable sector, manufacturing, especially in tradable services like finance and information, drove productivity gains. Digital and AI advances may boost productivity further if widely adopted.

Policy Implications

• Labor reallocation toward low-productivity nontradable sectors negatively affects aggregate productivity.
• Free trade and globalization, along with policies that remove trade barriers and promote supply chain changes, will enhance future economic growth.
• AI and technology adoption offer potential to reverse productivity trends, but distribution issues and adoption barriers could continue disparities.

Conclusion

The U.S. economy is moving toward service-based employment with slow productivity growth in nontradable segments, creating polarization. The supply side remains a key gatekeeper for future growth, with international trade constraints and demographic shifts posing additional challenges.