2025-06-10-Bernstein-豪瑞有限公司（HOLN）_豪瑞（Holcim）_关于两个令人兴奋部分-豪瑞与Amrize的入门介绍；为什么我们认为其被深度低估以及估值敏感性_78页_13mb

Holcim & Amrize Analysis Summary

Overview

• Company Background: Holcim Ltd (previously LafargeHolcim) was formed in 2014 through the merger of two global cement giants. It has undergone significant portfolio optimization, divesting underperforming markets and expanding in attractive regions like Europe, Latin America, and Asia Middle East Africa (AMEA).

Key Events: Spin-off of Amrize

• Event: Holcim is spinning off its North American business, Amrize, scheduled for June 23rd. This creates two independent entities:
  • Holcim: Retains operations in Europe, LatAm, and AMEA.
  • Amrize: Becomes a standalone cement and building materials company with a primary focus on the US and Canadian markets.
• Investor Interest: The spin-off is a major catalyst, with strong investor interest globally. Amrize (tickers: HOLN.SW for Holcim, AMRZ for Amrize) trades separately.

Company-Specific Analysis

Holcim

• Core Business: Cement (51% of sales), aggregates (15%), RMX (12%, low margin), and Building Solutions (12%).
• Investment Thesis: Deeply undervalued due to:
  1. Decarbonization: Holcim leads in low-carbon cement (ECOPlanet) and carbon capture; market not pricing in cost savings and margin expansion from environmental initiatives.
  2. Latin America: Strong exposure to consolidated markets (e.g., Argentina, Mexico); high GDP growth and brand equity (Fuerte, Maestro).
  3. Pricing Power: Attractive markets with high margins (LatAm EBIT margin > Europe), driven by portfolio rotation and exit of weak markets.
  4. Value from Spin-off: Holcim can now focus on LatAm and Europe, leveraging its balance sheet to pursue bolt-on acquisitions.
• Valuation: DCF model implies a 1-yr fwd EV/EBITDA of 10.8x; price target raised from CHF 115 to CHF 120, reflecting standalone potential.

Amrize

• Core Business: Cement (36% of sales), aggregates (36%), and Building Envelope (28%).
• Investment Thesis: Undervalued due to:
  1. Strong Market Position: Largest US/Canada cement producer (capacity 1.7x competitor); exposure to high-growth inland markets insulated from imports.
  2. Pricing Power: Cement pricing increased 9.4% CAGR (2021-2024); excellent logistics (Mississippi River network).
  3. M&A Strategy: Aggressively expanding footprint in aggregates and roofing; organic growth supported by US infrastructure spending (IIJA).
  4. US Exposure: Benefits from infrastructure investment and reshoring trends.
• Valuation: DCF yields 11.9x EV/EBITDA; price target of CHF 55, representing ~46% of group value.

Investment Implications

• Holcim: 54% of PT value; benefits from decarbonization, LatAm growth, and improved portfolio focus post-spin.
• Amrize: 46% of PT value; cheaper multiples than US peers due to market misunderstanding of its standalone potential.
• Combined Value: PT of CHF 120 reflects increased conviction that both entities are undervalued.

Financials & Growth Projections

• Revenue Growth:
  • Holcim: LatAm drives growth; organic + acquisition-driven expansion in Europe.
  • Amrize: Cement & aggregates grow ~8% CAGR (aggressive M&A and domestic demand).
• Margins: Both companies show margin expansion potential through operational efficiency and innovation.
• Balance Sheets: Strengthened deleveraging; Holcim net cash by 2028, Amrize maintains balance to fund bolt-ons.

Risks

• Holcim: Execution risk on decarbonization; competition in light-side markets could limit margin growth.
• Amrize: Tariff risks (US tariffs); over-reliance on US pricing power could be affected by market conditions.

Valuation & Sensitivities

• Target Price: CHF 120 (up from CHF 115); implied multiples 10.8x for Holcim, 11.9x for Amrize vs. current market multiples (Holcim at 8.3x, Amrize aligned with peers).
• Growth Assumptions: Strong organic and acquisition-driven growth, decarbonization milestones met.

Conclusion

The spin-off separates two high-quality businesses with strong growth catalysts. Holcim is positioned for premium due to decarbonization leadership and LatAm exposure, while Amrize offers direct access to U.S. market growth at attractive valuations. Both entities warrant investor attention.