> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Global Insolvency Outlook: Brace for Middle East Spillovers ## Core Content The **Global Insolvency Outlook** report, issued by Allianz Research on April 22, 2026, highlights the ongoing and prolonged rise in global business insolvencies, with significant impacts from the Middle East crisis. The report outlines the global trends, regional contributions, and key risks that could further exacerbate the situation. ## Main Points - **Global Trend**: - Business insolvencies increased by **+6%** in 2025, marking the **fourth consecutive year** of growth. - The **Global Insolvency Index** rose to **+19% above its pre-pandemic average**, but still **6% below the level during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC)**. - The **plateau** in global insolvencies is now expected to occur in **2027**, postponed from the original forecast due to the Middle East crisis. - **Regional Contributions**: - **Asia** remains the **largest contributor**, with **China's insolvencies projected to rise by +9% in 2026** and **+5% in 2027** due to ongoing structural challenges. - **Western Europe** is expected to see a **prolonged rise in 2026 (+3%)** followed by a **moderate decline in 2027 (-3%)**. - **North America** shows **contrasting trends**: the **US** continues its **rebound (+9%)**, while **Canada** sees a **decline (-4%)**. - **Country-Level Impacts**: - **Germany** and **France** are among the top contributors to the rise, with **Germany's insolvencies expected to reach 24,650** in 2026. - **Western Europe** accounts for **+3,750 and +3,600 additional cases** in 2026 and 2027 respectively, while the **US** accounts for **+4,100**. - **Asia** is the most vulnerable to oil price and supply shocks, with **China** and **Japan** showing continued increases. - **Job Risks**: - The extended rise in insolvencies is expected to **put 2.2 million jobs at risk globally in 2026**, followed by a **marginal decrease in 2027**. - **Europe** is projected to be the hardest hit, with **1.3 million jobs at risk**, particularly in **construction, retail, and services**. - **Key Sectors at Risk**: - **Construction, retail, and services** are the main sectors affected globally. - In **Western Europe**, **real estate and technology** are expected to suffer the most from margin squeezes. - **Energy-intensive sectors** such as **transportation, chemicals, and metals** are particularly vulnerable due to rising input costs and supply chain disruptions. ## Key Downside Risks - **Prolonged Middle East Conflict**: - Could push global insolvencies up to **+10% in 2026** and **+3% in 2027**, significantly higher than the current baseline. - This would affect **transport, energy, and supply chains**, leading to **higher costs** and **reduced confidence**. - **AI Boom Collapse**: - A potential collapse of the AI-driven economic boom could mirror the **dot-com bubble burst**, leading to an additional **+15,600 insolvencies in the US and Western Europe** over 2026–2027. - **Fiscal Concerns**: - High debt levels and confidence shocks could further amplify insolvency risks, especially in the **Eurozone**. ## Regional Outlooks - **Western Europe**: - Expected to see a **prolonged rise in 2026** and a **moderate decline in 2027**. - Most countries (10 out of 17) are within the **-4%/+4% range**, indicating a **quasi-stable number** of insolvencies. - **Germany, France, and the UK** are key markets, with **Germany** and **France** recording **+10% and +4%** increases respectively. - **Asia**: - The region remains the **largest contributor** to the global increase in insolvencies. - **China** and **Japan** continue to show **strong upward trends**. - **India** and **South Korea** are among the countries with **significant decreases** in insolvencies. - **North America**: - The **US** continues its **rebound**, while **Canada** sees a **decline**. - **Latin America**: - **Brazil** and **Chile** are among the countries with **notable increases**. ## Statistical Appendix - **Global and Regional Insolvency Indices**: - The **Global Insolvency Index** is based on the **2016–2019 average**. - The report includes **heatmaps** and **sector-specific analyses** to highlight **vulnerability levels**. - **2025 Insolvency Trends**: - The **Global Insolvency Index** increased by **+6%** in 2025, with **notable increases** in countries like **Switzerland, Greece, and Türkiye**. - **Stable or decreasing** insolvencies were recorded in **19 countries**, with **double-digit decreases** in **Europe, the Americas, and Asia**. - **2026 Forecasts**: - The **Middle East crisis** is expected to **add +7,000 cases in 2026** and **+7,900 in 2027**. - The **US** and **Western Europe** are the **main contributors** to the increase, with **Asia** remaining the **largest**. ## Conclusion The **Middle East crisis** has **spilled over** into the global economy, **delaying the plateau** in insolvencies to **2027**. The report emphasizes the need for **close monitoring** of **critical buyers and suppliers** and highlights the **potential for further shocks** such as the **AI boom collapse** and **fiscal concerns**. The **main sectors at risk** include **construction, retail, and services**, with **Western Europe** being the most affected. The **job risks** are significant, with **2.2 million jobs** globally at risk in **2026**.