欧洲议会-数据流，人工智能和国际贸易：未来价值链的影响和前景（英文）-2020.11-64页_1mb

Summary of "Data flows, artificial intelligence and international trade: impacts and prospects for the value chains of the future"

Core Content

This document provides two briefings and an in-depth analysis on the socio-economic effects of digital trade and artificial intelligence (AI) on EU industries, their value chains, and international trade dynamics. It was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade and completed in November 2020.

Main Points

Briefing 1: Socio-economic effects of digital trade and AI on EU industries

• Digital trade involves the production, distribution, marketing, sale, or delivery of goods and services via electronic means, including digital goods and services, data transfer, and online platforms.
• AI and digital technologies are transforming trade by reducing geographical barriers and enabling new business models.
• AI is being adopted across both digital and non-digital sectors, though the rate of adoption varies significantly across EU member states.
• Data plays a central role in digital trade, enabling personalization and improving transaction efficiency.
• The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Free Flow of Data Regulation govern data flows in the EU, with a focus on data minimisation and portability.
• Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are particularly affected by data-related trade restrictions due to limited capacity to absorb costs.
• Data-driven economies of scope and network effects can lead to market concentration, increasing entry barriers for SMEs.

Briefing 2: Legal Analysis of International Trade Law and Digital Trade

• The legal framework for digital trade is evolving, with a focus on regulating data flows and ensuring fair competition.
• The OECD Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (DSTRI) indicates that EU countries (except Latvia and Poland) have relatively low restrictions on digital services trade, compared to countries like Brazil, China, and India.
• The WTO plurilateral negotiations on e-commerce may reduce trade barriers, but multilateral disciplines need to be complemented by bilateral or regional agreements for meaningful improvements in market access.
• Data portability and trust in online ecosystems are key to enabling cross-border digital trade and consumer confidence.

In-depth Analysis: Geopolitical Aspects of Digital Trade

• The next phase of globalisation is driven by digitally-delivered services, which is expected to have a greater impact on service trade than on manufactured goods.
• AI and digital technologies are likely to increase the tradability of services, especially those involving high-skilled labor.
• 3D printing (additive manufacturing) is expected to shorten product development cycles and reduce offshoring, while also localizing production near the point of consumption.
• The socio-economic implications of digital transformation include changes in employment, with a shift from manufacturing to services and potential job displacement for certain sectors.

Key Information

• AI Readiness Index highlights that Northern European and Anglo-Saxon countries lead in AI adoption, while Southern and Eastern Europe lag behind.
• Digital business models such as platforms and blockchain are reshaping trade by reducing costs, increasing transparency, and enabling secure, peer-to-peer transactions.
• Platform ecosystems have become a key mechanism for digital trade, allowing for global scale and efficiency gains.
• Blockchain offers a non-intermediated alternative for secure transactions, enhancing trust in digital trade.
• Digitally enabled services are becoming more tradable, especially with the help of AI and machine learning, which can enable tele-migration and remote work.
• The impact of AI on manufacturing may lead to job displacement, while services could see increased delocalisation to countries with low-cost skilled labor.
• Education and retraining are essential for societies to adapt to the digital transformation, especially in the Nordic model of flexi-security.
• Taxation of digital activities could be a means for states to fund necessary social and economic policies.

Conclusion

The digital transformation, particularly through AI and data flows, is reshaping global trade and value chains. While it has already had a significant impact on manufactured goods, the next phase will likely see a greater transformation in service trade, driven by technological innovation and geopolitical shifts. The EU must address domestic and trade policy challenges to ensure fair competition, data protection, and socio-economic stability in this evolving landscape.