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U.S.-India Insight Summary: India Looks to Afghanistan's "Year of Transition"

Core Content

The December 2013 edition of U.S.-India Insight focuses on Afghanistan's 2014 "Year of Transition," highlighting the political, security, and economic changes the country is expected to undergo. The document emphasizes the importance of India's role in supporting Afghanistan through this period, particularly in ensuring stability and fostering economic development.

Main Transitions in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is set to experience three major transitions in 2014:

• Security Transition: By the end of 2014, all U.S. and NATO combat forces will withdraw, and Afghan security forces will take full responsibility for the country's safety.
• Political Transition: Presidential and provincial council elections are scheduled for April/May 2014, marking the first peaceful transfer of power in Afghanistan's history.
• Economic Transition: The country will begin to reduce its reliance on foreign aid and develop a more self-sufficient economy.

India's Role in Afghanistan's Transition

India is seen as a key partner for Afghanistan during this transition period, particularly in the economic domain. President Karzai has engaged in high-level diplomatic visits to India, seeking support for the security transition and economic development. During his visit to New Delhi, he discussed the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, though India was cautious in its military support.

Key Economic Initiatives by India

• Invested over $2 billion in Afghan infrastructure, including highways, hospitals, and rural electricity projects.
• Provided Indian-made light helicopters, transport and logistics equipment, and continued training for Afghan security forces.
• Constructed the Salma hydroelectric dam near Herat with Indian assistance.
• Building the new parliament building and advancing the $11 billion Hajigak iron ore project.
• Committed to supporting Afghanistan's integration into regional trade and investment networks.

Regional Cooperation and Non-Interference

The document suggests that regional cooperation and a commitment to non-interference are essential for Afghanistan's stability. It recommends:

• A regional compact among Afghanistan and its neighbors to prevent external interference.
• A neutral state declaration by Afghanistan, witnessed by neighbors and endorsed by the UN Security Council.
• A monitoring mechanism to ensure compliance with the compact, including an observer force or a complaint mechanism to the Security Council.

U.S.-India Strategic Partnership

Both the U.S. and India have strategic interests in Afghanistan's future as a stable and independent state. The Joint Statement from their September 2013 meeting in Washington highlights the need for coordinated international support to strengthen Afghan security forces.

• The U.S. and India are both committed to economic development in Afghanistan, particularly through the New Silk Road initiative.
• The goal is to integrate Central Asia with the Indian subcontinent via trade, energy, and investment, benefiting all Afghan neighbors, including Pakistan.

Conclusion

India is expected to play a central role in Afghanistan's transition, especially in economic development and regional stability. The U.S. and India should continue to collaborate to ensure Afghanistan's future is secure and prosperous. The document underscores the importance of a strategic U.S.-India partnership in this endeavor.

Key Figures and Institutions

• Amb. Karl F. Inderfurth: Senior Adviser & Chair of the CSIS Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies.
• Amb. Chinmaya Gharekhan: Former UN Under-Secretary General and India's special envoy for West Asia.
• CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies): A nonpartisan, nonprofit organization providing strategic insights to decision-makers.

Call to Action

• The U.S. and India should hold bilateral consultations to explore ways to support Afghanistan's transition.
• The Afghan government should initiate regional cooperation to limit foreign interference.
• The UN Secretary General should be involved in facilitating such cooperation, given the mandate from the Bonn I declaration of 2001.

Additional Information

• The U.S.-India Insight is produced by the CSIS Wadhwani Chair.
• Amb. Karl F. Inderfurth is concluding his three-year tenure as Chair and will remain as a nonresident senior adviser.
• The publication encourages support from individuals, foundations, and governments to continue its mission of advancing U.S.-India relations.