> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) Summary ## Core Content BYD's 1Q26 financial results showed resilience in earnings, with average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM) exceeding prior forecasts. This was largely driven by strong overseas performance, which accounted for 46% of total sales volume. Despite a 30% YoY decline in sales volume, the company's net profit reached RMB4.1bn, RMB0.7bn higher than the forecast. ## Main Points - **Earnings Performance**: - Revenue for 1Q26 fell by 12% YoY but was 13% higher than the prior forecast. - GPM increased by 1.4ppts QoQ to 18.8%, 0.3ppts above the forecast. - Net profit beat expectations by RMB0.7bn, reaching RMB4.1bn. - **Overseas Contribution**: - Overseas sales volume in 1Q26 was 46% of total, contributing to higher GPM. - Estimated overseas GPM is 6-8ppts higher than China's. - FY26E total sales volume is forecasted at 5mn units, with overseas sales revised up by 0.1mn units to 1.6mn units. - This revision leads to a 2% increase in FY26E revenue forecast. - **R&D Capitalization**: - R&D capitalization ratio rose to 17% in 1Q26 from 9% in FY25, contributing to earnings resilience. - Revised FY26/27E R&D capitalization ratio assumptions to 15% / 12%, leading to a 4% and 6% increase in net profit forecasts to RMB37.9bn / RMB46.3bn. - **Valuation and Target Price**: - Maintain "BUY" rating with a target price of HK$125/RMB125, based on a 22x FY27E P/E ratio. - Current price is HK$103.7/RMB101.5, implying a 20.5%/23.2% upside. - **Key Risks**: - Lower-than-expected sales volume or margins. - Sector de-rating risk. ## Financial Highlights | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |----------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 777,102 | 803,965 | 888,026 | 966,928 | 1,017,597| | YoY Growth (%) | 29.0 | 3.5 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | | Net Profit (RMB mn) | 40,254.3 | 32,619.0 | 37,884.1 | 46,257.5 | 49,092.9 | | YoY Growth (%) | 34.0 | -19.0 | 16.1 | 22.1 | 6.1 | | Net Profit Margin (%) | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | ## Earnings Revisions | Metric | New (CMBIGM) | Old | Diff (%) | |----------------------|-------------|-----|----------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 888,026 | 872,654| 1.8% | | Gross Profit (RMB mn) | 156,700 | 155,061| 1.1% | | Operating Profit (RMB mn) | 46,156 | 45,152 | 2.2% | | Net Profit (RMB mn) | 37,884 | 36,305 | 4.3% | ## CMBIGM vs Consensus | Metric | CMBIGM | Consensus | Diff (%) | |----------------------|-----------|----------|---------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 888,026 | 927,553 | -4.3% | | Gross Profit (RMB mn) | 156,700 | 170,262 | -8.0% | | Operating Profit (RMB mn) | 46,156 | 46,721 | -1.2% | | Net Profit (RMB mn) | 37,884 | 41,921 | -9.6% | ## Profitability Metrics | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |----------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | Gross Margin (%) | 18.6 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 17.6 | 17.8 | 17.8 | | Operating Margin (%) | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | | ROE (%) | 24.0 | 24.8 | 15.1 | 14.4 | 15.4 | 14.5 | ## Key Financial Ratios | Ratio | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |----------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | P/E (x) | 8.7 | 6.5 | 25.0 | 21.7 | 17.8 | 16.8 | | P/B (x) | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | | P/CFPS (x) | 1.5 | 2.0 | 13.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.2 | | Dividend Yield (%) | 3.4 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | ## Analysts and Contact Information - **Ji SHI, CFA**: (852) 3761 8728 | shiji@cmbi.com.hk - **Wenjing DOU, CFA**: (852) 6939 4751 | douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk - **Austin Liang**: (852) 3900 0856 | austinliang@cmbi.com.hk ## CMBIG Ratings | Rating | Description | |---------------|-------------| | BUY | Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months | | HOLD | Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months | | SELL | Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months | | OUTPERFORM | Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark | | MARKET-PERFORM | Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark | | UNDERPERFORM | Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark | ## Disclaimer - The research analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal views. - No part of their compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views expressed. - CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage incurred from relying on the information. - The report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. - The information is based on analyses and interpretations and is not guaranteed. - CMBIGM may issue other reports with different conclusions and recommendations. - The report may contain conflicts of interest due to CMBIGM's market-making activities.