20260429-招银国际-比亚迪-002594.SZ-Overseas,_R_D_support_1Q26_earnings_resilience_5页_899kb

报告摘要

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) Summary

Core Content

BYD's 1Q26 financial results showed resilience in earnings, with average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM) exceeding prior forecasts. This was largely driven by strong overseas performance, which accounted for 46% of total sales volume. Despite a 30% YoY decline in sales volume, the company's net profit reached RMB4.1bn, RMB0.7bn higher than the forecast.

Main Points

Earnings Performance:
- Revenue for 1Q26 fell by 12% YoY but was 13% higher than the prior forecast.
- GPM increased by 1.4ppts QoQ to 18.8%, 0.3ppts above the forecast.
- Net profit beat expectations by RMB0.7bn, reaching RMB4.1bn.
Overseas Contribution:
- Overseas sales volume in 1Q26 was 46% of total, contributing to higher GPM.
- Estimated overseas GPM is 6-8ppts higher than China's.
- FY26E total sales volume is forecasted at 5mn units, with overseas sales revised up by 0.1mn units to 1.6mn units.
- This revision leads to a 2% increase in FY26E revenue forecast.
R&D Capitalization:
- R&D capitalization ratio rose to 17% in 1Q26 from 9% in FY25, contributing to earnings resilience.
- Revised FY26/27E R&D capitalization ratio assumptions to 15% / 12%, leading to a 4% and 6% increase in net profit forecasts to RMB37.9bn / RMB46.3bn.
Valuation and Target Price:
- Maintain "BUY" rating with a target price of HK$125/RMB125, based on a 22x FY27E P/E ratio.
- Current price is HK$103.7/RMB101.5, implying a 20.5%/23.2% upside.
Key Risks:
- Lower-than-expected sales volume or margins.
- Sector de-rating risk.

Financial Highlights

Metric	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue (RMB mn)	777,102	803,965	888,026	966,928	1,017,597
YoY Growth (%)	29.0	3.5	10.5	8.9	5.2
Net Profit (RMB mn)	40,254.3	32,619.0	37,884.1	46,257.5	49,092.9
YoY Growth (%)	34.0	-19.0	16.1	22.1	6.1
Net Profit Margin (%)	4.2	4.6	4.3	4.8	4.8

Earnings Revisions

Metric	New (CMBIGM)	Old	Diff (%)
Revenue (RMB mn)	888,026	872,654	1.8%
Gross Profit (RMB mn)	156,700	155,061	1.1%
Operating Profit (RMB mn)	46,156	45,152	2.2%
Net Profit (RMB mn)	37,884	36,305	4.3%

CMBIGM vs Consensus

Metric	CMBIGM	Consensus	Diff (%)
Revenue (RMB mn)	888,026	927,553	-4.3%
Gross Profit (RMB mn)	156,700	170,262	-8.0%
Operating Profit (RMB mn)	46,156	46,721	-1.2%
Net Profit (RMB mn)	37,884	41,921	-9.6%

Profitability Metrics

Metric	2023A	2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
Gross Margin (%)	18.6	19.4	17.7	17.6	17.8	17.8
Operating Margin (%)	5.5	5.2	3.1	4.2	4.5	4.8
ROE (%)	24.0	24.8	15.1	14.4	15.4	14.5

Key Financial Ratios

Ratio	2023A	2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
P/E (x)	8.7	6.5	25.0	21.7	17.8	16.8
P/B (x)	1.9	1.4	3.3	2.9	2.6	2.3
P/CFPS (x)	1.5	2.0	13.8	4.7	4.6	4.2
Dividend Yield (%)	3.4	4.6	0.4	0.9	1.1	1.2

Analysts and Contact Information

Ji SHI, CFA: (852) 3761 8728 | shiji@cmbi.com.hk
Wenjing DOU, CFA: (852) 6939 4751 | douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk
Austin Liang: (852) 3900 0856 | austinliang@cmbi.com.hk

CMBIG Ratings

Rating	Description
BUY	Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
HOLD	Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
SELL	Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
OUTPERFORM	Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
MARKET-PERFORM	Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
UNDERPERFORM	Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Disclaimer

The research analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal views.
No part of their compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views expressed.
CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage incurred from relying on the information.
The report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
The information is based on analyses and interpretations and is not guaranteed.
CMBIGM may issue other reports with different conclusions and recommendations.
The report may contain conflicts of interest due to CMBIGM's market-making activities.

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