斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-全球武器贸易中的新兴供应商（英文）-2020.12-24页_363kb

Summary of "Emerging Suppliers in the Global Arms Trade"

I. Core Content

This paper explores the growing role of emerging arms suppliers in the global arms trade and their implications for international security. It focuses on the diversification of arms suppliers since the mid-2000s, which has led to a more fragmented market and increased risks associated with arms transfers. The study examines four countries—Brazil, South Korea, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—as representative examples of emerging arms exporters. While these countries are not yet major suppliers in terms of volume, their increasing production and export capabilities are raising concerns about the impact of their involvement on global peace and security.

II. Main Points

1. Diversification of Arms Suppliers

• The arms export market has become increasingly diversified since the early 2000s, with the U.S. share of global arms exports declining and other countries gaining prominence.
• The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is used to measure supply concentration in the global arms trade, showing that the market has never been more diffused than in the period 2003–2019.
• Emerging suppliers are playing a significant role in this shift, contributing to the global arms trade in smaller volumes but with growing influence.

2. Emerging Suppliers: Brazil, South Korea, Turkey, UAE

• These four countries are considered emerging suppliers due to their increasing arms production and export capabilities.
• They are not yet among the top global arms exporters but have shown consistent growth in their rankings over the past two decades.
• Despite relying on foreign technologies, they have managed to establish themselves in specific niche areas of armaments or expand the range of arms they export.

3. Impact on International Security

• Arms exports by emerging suppliers can have significant consequences for regional and international security, even if their volumes are lower than those of established suppliers.
• The paper highlights that arms transfers can contribute to the onset or prolongation of armed conflicts, support internal repression, and violate international humanitarian and human rights law.
• These countries tend to export to regions with active armed conflicts, such as Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, increasing the potential for destabilization.

4. Drivers of Arms Exports

• The motivations for arms exports vary among the four countries. Some aim to gain political influence, while others focus on economic benefits.
• For example, the UAE uses offset agreements to develop its domestic arms industry, while South Korea's arms industry growth was partly driven by U.S. policy shifts and technological restrictions.
• Turkey's arms exports have been fueled by domestic military demand and a desire for technological independence, though it still relies heavily on foreign components for advanced systems.

III. Key Information

1. Global Arms Trade Trends

• From 1950 to 2019, the global arms trade has seen fluctuations in supply concentration.
• During the Cold War, the U.S. and the USSR dominated the arms export market, but their influence declined after the fall of the USSR in 1991.
• The 2000s saw a significant increase in supplier diversity, with the UAE, Turkey, South Korea, and Brazil among the fastest-growing arms exporters.

2. Arms Export Volumes

• Between 2010 and 2019, the UAE exported 0.3% of global arms, Turkey 0.8%, South Korea 1.5%, and Brazil 0.2%.
• Despite their relatively small share of global arms exports, these countries have become important players in regional markets, especially in conflict-prone areas.

3. Arms Production and Technology

• The UAE, Turkey, and South Korea have all made strides in developing their domestic arms industries, often through offset agreements and technology transfers.
• These countries export a variety of major weapons, including armoured vehicles, aircraft, and UAVs, with a focus on the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
• The UAE has developed its own arms-producing conglomerate, EDIC, which was later absorbed into EDGE, a state-owned company with a total sales volume of $4.75 billion in 2019.

4. Risks of Emerging Suppliers

• Emerging suppliers can contribute to the spread of arms and increase the likelihood of conflict in recipient states.
• They may also undermine arms control efforts by increasing the number of suppliers and reducing the effectiveness of international regulations.
• The paper suggests that the growing arms production and export capabilities of these countries may lead to more complex and potentially destabilizing arms trade dynamics.

IV. Conclusion and Future Research

• The paper concludes that the rise of emerging suppliers is a significant development in the global arms trade, with potential implications for international security.
• It calls for further research into the role of these suppliers, particularly in regions of instability.
• The study also proposes ways in which these countries can be regulated to mitigate the risks associated with their arms exports, such as through stronger international cooperation and more transparent trade practices.

V. Appendices and Supporting Data

• Table 1 outlines the progression of arms suppliers in terms of their average rank between 2000 and 2019, showing the UAE, Turkey, South Korea, and Brazil as the fastest-growing countries.
• Figures 1–4 illustrate the trends in supplier concentration and the main recipients of arms from these four countries, highlighting their growing influence in the global arms trade.