NBER-土地制度和分配不当对农业生产力的影响（英文）-2020.5-36页_2mb

NBER Research Summary: March 2020

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonprofit research organization that conducts objective quantitative analysis of the American economy. The NBER Reporter provides a quarterly summary of research findings from the NBER's Public Economics Program and other research initiatives.

Main Research Areas

1. Take-up and Targeting of Government Programs

• Take-up rates are not always high, even among eligible individuals.
• Barriers to take-up include informational and transactional obstacles.
• Informational barriers can be significant in some contexts, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), where reminder letters from the IRS influence participation.
• Transaction costs also affect take-up, as seen in the case of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and disability insurance programs.
• Targeting effects vary depending on the nature of the barriers:
  • Informational barriers can exclude the least needy or encourage higher socioeconomic status individuals.
  • Transaction costs can improve targeting among enrollees but worsen it among applicants.
• Policy implications suggest that the design of government programs must consider how different barriers affect participation and targeting.

2. Impacts of Government Programs and Tax Policies

• Tax policies can significantly influence individual and corporate behavior.
• Income and wealth inequality studies have used administrative tax data to show that much of the wealth at the top comes from human capital rather than financial capital.
• Affordable housing programs have been shown to affect neighborhood dynamics, with the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit revitalizing low-income areas but having negative effects in higher-income regions.
• Income dynamics have been studied using panel data, revealing sharp variations in intergenerational mobility across geographic areas.
• Causal effects of government programs are context-dependent, with no one-size-fits-all solution.

3. Rare Events and Financial Markets

• Rare disasters are events with a small probability of causing extreme economic damage, such as global warfare, pandemics, and financial crises.
• Financial markets often anticipate rare events, even before they occur, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
• Risk premia in financial markets are influenced by investors' beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters.
• Put options and credit default swaps (CDS) provide insights into how investors perceive the probability of rare events, with out-of-the-money options reflecting higher perceived risk.

Key Findings

• Take-up rates of government programs are influenced by both informational and transactional barriers.
• Targeting effects of these barriers vary, with some excluding the least needy and others encouraging the most vulnerable.
• Tax policies have diverse impacts on behavior and economic outcomes, with no universal result.
• Rare disasters are a key factor in explaining financial market volatility and risk premia.
• Asset pricing models that incorporate rare events can better explain market behavior and pricing anomalies.

NBER Structure and Funding

• Leadership:
  • President and CEO: James M. Poterba
  • Controller: Kelly Horak
  • Corporate Secretary: Altera Milone
• Board of Directors includes notable economists from various universities and organizations.
• Funding comes from individuals, corporations, and private foundations, ensuring the NBER's independence and flexibility.
• Subscriptions to the NBER Reporter are available through the NBER website or by mail.

Conclusion

NBER research highlights the complexity of government program take-up and the nuanced effects of tax policies. It also emphasizes the role of rare disasters in shaping financial market behavior and the importance of data and empirical methods in understanding these dynamics. The findings suggest that further research is needed to better inform policy design and economic analysis.