2025-06-10-Jefferies-德扑之王（DKNG）_FLUT宣布对伊利诺伊州投注加收附加费-_DraftKings似乎可能效仿_7页_182kb

USA Gaming Equity Research: DraftKings (DKNG) Report Summary

June 10, 2025

Key Highlights

• Rating and Price Target: FLUT (Flutter Entertainment) and DKNG (DraftKings Inc.) are discussed. FLUT announces a surcharge on Illinois bets, which DKNG is likely to follow. DKNG's rating is BUY with a price target of $36.20 to $60.00, representing a +66% upside potential.

• FLUT Policy Change: FLUT will implement a $0.50 per bet transaction fee starting September 1, 2025, in response to Illinois taxes. This fee is expected to offset some of the $0.25 tax on the first 20M wagers, leading to net revenue gains and a potential $70M EBITDA headwind for DKNG if not mitigated.

• DKNG Expected Action: Analysts believe DKNG will adopt a similar fee structure to counteract the tax increase. This could boost net revenue by $5M–$70M, offsetting potential handle growth headwinds.

• IL Tax Impact: Illinois' aggressive tax policies may influence other states, though FLUT and DKNG's leadership suggests less risk from smaller operators. The increase could stem regulatory competition in the US gambling industry.

• Valuation and Risks: DKNG's valuation considers market conditions, with upside potential under 4x EV/Sales and 22x EV/EBITDA. Downside risks include EBITDA burn, regulatory issues, and competition, but the surcharge strategy supports positive outlook.

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY for DKNG.
• Price Target: $60.00 range.
• Issue date: June 10, 2025.