2001年-世界发展银行全球_India___Power_Supply_to_Agriculture_Volume_4_Methodological_Framework_and_Sampling_Procedures_Report_43页_38mb

Summary of Report No. 22171-IN: India Power Supply to Agriculture

Introduction

This report provides a detailed analysis of the power supply to the agricultural sector in Haryana and Andhra Pradesh, with a focus on the methodological framework and sampling procedures. It highlights the challenges faced by farmers due to the limited availability and unreliable nature of electricity, and explores the cost structures of alternative irrigation options. The report also outlines proposed policy reforms and justifies the chosen methodological approach.

Core Content

A. Characteristics of Power Supply and Its Impact on Farmers

• Power Supply Rationing: Electricity supply to agriculture is heavily rationed due to shortages. Farmers often face long waiting periods (3–5 years) to obtain connections and have limited access to 3-phase power.
• Scheduled Supply: Three-phase power is typically scheduled for specific hours each day. However, this supply is frequently interrupted due to transformer burnouts and power cuts.
• Unreliability of Supply: In Haryana, farmers reported an average of 2 hours of daily power cuts during scheduled supply hours.
• Transformer Burnouts: On average, 16 days of supply are lost annually due to transformer burnouts.
• Voltage Quality: Voltage fluctuations are a significant issue, with 73% of farmers reporting "frequent" or "always" experiencing voltage problems. These fluctuations affect motor performance and lead to higher investment in robust motors and higher capacity pumps.
• Electricity Pricing: Most farmers in Haryana pay a flat rate based on installed horsepower, while in Andhra Pradesh, all farmers are charged based on a flat rate. Despite subsidies, the real costs of irrigation are high due to supply constraints.

B. Cost Structure of Alternative Irrigation Options

• Electric Pumps: While the fixed cost is low, variable costs include motor repair and maintenance. However, the low reliability and quality of supply make electric pumps less attractive.
• Diesel Pumps: These are more costly to operate due to higher fuel expenses, but they offer more flexibility and reliability. Diesel pumps may be more profitable at low consumption levels.
• Canal Irrigation: It is the lowest cost alternative in areas where it is available, but it comes with quotas and limited flexibility in timing.
• Water Purchasing: For farmers without wells, purchasing water from neighbors is an option, but it is limited due to high transaction costs and social norms.

C. Proposed Policy Reforms

• Increase Supply Hours: Extend the number of hours electricity is supplied to the agricultural sector.
• Improve Reliability: Reduce the frequency and duration of unscheduled power cuts and transformer burnouts.
• Enhance Quality of Supply: Minimize voltage fluctuations and improve overall power quality.
• Adjust Tariff Structure: Consider increasing tariffs or moving towards a pro-rata system based on metered consumption.
• Policy Objectives: The reforms aim to reduce the real costs of irrigation, improve production efficiency, and enhance farm incomes. The impact of these reforms on input demand, cropping patterns, and incomes will be assessed.

D. Review of Alternative Approaches and Justification for the Proposed Approach

• Micro vs. Macro Analysis: The study focuses on micro-level analysis of farm behavior, while macro-level considerations include regional and state-level impacts.
• Econometric Model: Used to estimate the impact of policy reforms on farmers. It accounts for both short-run and medium-run responses.
• Contingent Valuation (CV): Considered but not used due to sensitivity to question phrasing and timing. The econometric model is preferred for its empirical simplicity and ability to capture first-order effects.
• Short-Run vs. Medium-Run Analysis: In the short run, capital stock remains constant, while in the medium run, it can adjust. The model is designed to assess how farmers respond to changes in supply conditions.

Key Information and Main Points

• Electricity Supply Issues: The main challenges are low availability, unreliable supply, and poor quality, which increase farmers' costs and reduce productivity.
• Cost Impacts: Farmers often invest in backup strategies like diesel pumps and tractors to mitigate supply risks, which significantly increase their effective irrigation costs.
• Policy Implications: The current pricing and supply structure leads to inefficiencies. Improving supply reliability and quality could be more beneficial than simply increasing tariffs.
• Technological Choices: Farmers choose different technologies based on water availability, cost, and reliability of supply. The study includes all irrigation technologies (electric, diesel, canal, rainfed, and water purchasing) in its analysis.
• Sampling and Data Collection: Extensive metering at the farm and feeder levels, along with recall and attitudinal surveys, were used to collect primary data. The sample included a broad range of farmers to avoid selection bias and to understand differences in technology adoption and outcomes.

Questions to be Addressed

Part I: Current Situation Analysis

• What are the different irrigation sources and technologies used by farmers?
• What are the direct and indirect costs associated with each technology?
• What are the cropping patterns, input use intensities, and yields associated with each irrigation method?
• What are the elasticities of input demand and output supply for different technologies?
• What factors influence farmers' technology choices?
• How do farmers perceive the quality of electricity supply?
• What coping strategies do farmers use, and what are their costs?
• What is the production loss for farmers without backup strategies?
• Do well owners sell water to neighbors, and what are the terms of such contracts?

Part II: Partial Equilibrium Analysis

• What is the impact of policy changes on technology adoption, cropping patterns, electricity demand, groundwater use, yields, and incomes?
• What is the willingness to pay for an extra hour of electricity?
• What is the willingness to pay for improved reliability and quality of supply?

Methodological Framework

• Econometric Model: Developed based on data from Haryana and Andhra Pradesh. It estimates the effects of policy changes on input and output variables.
• Production Function: The model assumes a production function where yield depends on water, variable inputs, and other farm-specific characteristics.
• Water Constraints: Water input is constrained by rain, canal allocation, and the capacity of electric and diesel pumps.
• Sampling Design: The report outlines the sampling procedures for both states, including the formation of regions based on agro-climatic and irrigation parameters, and the connected load and sample size for metering and surveys.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for policy reforms to improve the reliability and quality of electricity supply in the agricultural sector. It argues that the current system results in inefficiencies and high real costs for farmers. The proposed reforms include increasing supply hours, reducing interruptions, and improving voltage stability. The use of an econometric model allows for a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of the impacts of these reforms on farm productivity and income.