战略与国际研究中心-Central-America-s-Costly-Drug-Dilemma_4页_1mb

Central America's Costly Drug Dilemma Summary

Core Content

Central America is experiencing a severe security crisis, marked by high homicide rates and increased drug trafficking. The region has become one of the most violent areas in the world, second only to Iraq and Afghanistan. The situation has drawn significant attention at international meetings, including the Organization of American States (OAS) General Assembly in El Salvador and the Central American Integration System (SICA) conference in Guatemala City. These gatherings highlighted the urgent need for a comprehensive regional strategy to address the security challenges.

Main Points

• Security Crisis: Central America faces a growing security problem, with Honduras and El Salvador reporting homicide rates exceeding 70 per 100,000 in 2010.
• Drug Trafficking: Cocaine shipments through the region have doubled since 2008, now accounting for 84% of all drug shipments entering the United States.
• U.S. Response: The Obama administration increased funding for antidrug efforts through the Central American Regional Security Initiative (CARSI) to nearly $300 million, with additional contributions from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank up to $1 billion.
• Regional Strategy: The SICA plan outlines a five-pronged approach to security, including prevention, prosecution, rehabilitation of criminals, reintegration of ex-prisoners, and strengthening institutions.
• El Salvador's Initiatives: El Salvador plans to implement a three-year tax on upper income brackets and businesses to fund public security, establish social programs for at-risk youth, strengthen police forces, and improve prison security.
• Challenges: Despite foreign aid, small economies in the region struggle to combat drug violence due to limited resources. The U.S. is urged to reduce its demand for illicit drugs and halt arms trafficking to South America.
• Colombia's Role: Colombia is emerging as a key player in security training and cooperation for Central American countries. It is also expected to play a more prominent role in U.S.-Colombia relations, with the free trade agreement being a focus for approval in 2011.

Key Information

• CARSI Funding: Increased to nearly $300 million, with international organizations contributing up to $1 billion.
• SICA Plan: Focuses on five key areas: prevention, prosecution, rehabilitation, reintegration, and institutional strengthening.
• Colombia 2020 Conference: Highlighted Colombia's progress in reducing drug trafficking and civil conflict, and its potential for economic growth and energy production.
• Economic and Political Implications: The U.S. decision to eliminate ethanol subsidies and tariffs on imports may affect Brazil's ethanol production and exports, but it is unlikely to lead to a significant increase in U.S. imports from Brazil in the short term.
• Cuba's Economic Shift: China's investment in Cuba's oil and gas sector, including a $6 billion refinery expansion, signals a deepening economic relationship. Cuba's potential oil reserves and its role as a trading partner with China are noted.
• HydroAysén Project: A controversial hydroelectric dam project in Chile was suspended due to environmental concerns, despite its potential to boost electricity generation. The project's suspension reflects public opposition and the need for sustainable energy solutions.
• Peru's New Leadership: President-elect Ollanta Humala has a 70% approval rating and is seen as a symbol of change. His government is expected to adopt a more moderate approach, distancing itself from Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and aligning with Brazil's Lula da Silva.

Upcoming Events

• July 11-15: OAS Experts Meeting on Chemical Substance Control in Quito, Ecuador.
• July 13: CSIS Conference on Consolidating Security in Colombia, from 2 p.m. to 3:30 p.m.

Contributors and Staff

• Americas Program Staff: Stephen Johnson (Director), Caitlin Watson (Research Assistant), Michael Graybeal (Program Coordinator).
• Senior Associates: Johanna Mendelson-Forman, Phillip McLean.
• Intern Scholars: Samantha Burns, Catrina Clausen, Jordan Franklin, Meenakshi Krishnan, Kennon Pearre, Paul Shortell.

Note: This summary is produced by the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonpartisan, non-proprietary institution. All views expressed are solely those of the author(s).