2022年新兴科技趋势报告（英）-perkinscoie-2022.2-161页_3mb

2022 Emerging Technology Trends Summary

Core Content Overview

This report outlines the current and future trends in 10 emerging and nascent technologies, focusing on their market and legal implications. It emphasizes how these technologies are transforming industries, society, and the law, and highlights the increasing convergence of advanced technologies.

Main Technologies Covered

• Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Machine Learning (ML)
• Quantum Computing
• Cloud Computing & Distributed Infrastructure
• Digital Media & Entertainment
• Greentech
• Healthtech & Medtech
• Mobile Wireless Technology
• Privacy & Security
• Retail & E-Commerce
• Robotics & Autonomous Systems
• Spacetech

Key Trends and Impacts

Disruption and Transformation

• New technologies are reshaping traditional industries and enabling the development of innovative products and services.
• The pandemic has accelerated the adoption and integration of these technologies across various sectors.
• These technologies are not only disrupting current markets but also influencing future ones.

Convergence of Technologies

• Advanced technologies are converging, leading to new business models and categories.
• This convergence is expected to drive significant economic growth over the next decade.

Economic Impact

• AI could add up to $13 trillion to the global economy by 2030.
• AI is used to reduce labor costs and automate repetitive tasks, which may widen the gap between countries and workers.
• The retail industry is becoming a top AI spender, surpassing banking due to broader applications such as inventory management and customer engagement.

Social Impact

• AI may increase social inequalities and political instability, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
• Algorithmic discrimination can perpetuate social inequities, and managing biases is crucial for fair outcomes.
• The use of AI in social media content moderation has raised concerns about the suppression of legitimate speech and biased enforcement.

Environmental Impact

• AI is helping countries meet their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in climate modeling and environmental monitoring.
• Companies like NASA, IBM, and Microsoft are leveraging AI to improve the efficiency of climate models.

Legal and Regulatory Implications

• AI development is subject to legal and regulatory scrutiny, with a focus on risk assessments, accountability, and continuous review.
• U.S. financial regulators and the FTC are closely examining the use of AI and ML, with new guidelines on truth, fairness, and equity.
• The use of AI in decision-making systems, such as immigration risk assessment, has led to legal challenges and class-action lawsuits.

AI, Machine Learning & Quantum Computing

Sector Overview

• AI, ML, and quantum computing are key areas of focus in the report.
• AI is divided into narrow (domain-specific) and general (human-like) forms.
• Quantum computing leverages quantum properties such as superposition and entanglement to solve complex problems more efficiently.

Enabling Science and Technology

• Deep Learning: A subset of ML that uses neural networks to process and analyze data, enabling autonomous systems.
• Quantum AI: A new frontier in AI development, with companies like Google investing in quantum computing research.
• Cognitive Computing: Combines computer science and cognitive science to simulate human thought processes, used in decision support and data analytics.

Sector and Industry Signals

• NASA's Tipping Point Program: Uses AI and IoT to develop autonomous robots for lunar exploration.
• Apple's Acquisitions: Apple has acquired several AI startups to enhance its speech and image recognition capabilities.
• Industrial AI Growth: Expected to grow at a 24.1% CAGR, with applications in agriculture, supply chain optimization, and predictive analysis.

Legal Implications

• Transactions: Venture capital and private equity investments in AI and ML are increasing, with a rise in strategic M&A and public listings.
• Quantum Computing: Investment and M&A activity in quantum computing are growing, though it remains a nascent subsector.
• Litigation: There is an increase in lawsuits related to AI bias, particularly in decision support systems and content moderation.
• Privacy: The use of personal data for AI training raises privacy and compliance concerns, necessitating proper notice and consent.
• Regulatory: U.S. financial regulators and the FTC are developing new guidelines to ensure safe and equitable AI use.

Copyright and Patent Issues

• AI as Inventor: The question of whether AI can be recognized as an inventor is being debated internationally.
• Copyright Protection: In the U.S., AI-created works are not eligible for copyright unless there is human input. Some countries offer statutory protection for computer-generated works.
• USPTO Comments: The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has sought public comments on AI's role in intellectual property, indicating ongoing regulatory developments.

Authors

• John Delaney – Partner, New York
• Dean Harvey – Partner, Dallas
• Samuel Jo – Partner, Seattle
• Marc Martin – Partner, Washington, D.C.
• Justin Moon – Partner, Seattle
• Lisa Oratz – Senior Counsel, Bellevue | Seattle

About Us

• The firm provides legal and strategic guidance to companies and government agencies on AI, ML, and quantum computing.
• They assist in developing technologies related to machine perception, deep learning, data analytics, and more.
• Their expertise spans engineering, biometrics, optics, and neural networks, with a focus on both technological and legal aspects.