2021-08-29-UNDP-UNDP_Social_Construction_of_Systemic_Risk_Towards_an_Actionable_Framework_for_Risk_Governance_12页_4mb

Summary of the Case Study: The Social Construction of Systemic Risk in Zimbabwe

Core Content

This case study explores the multifaceted nature of systemic risk in Zimbabwe, highlighting how socio-political, economic, environmental, and health vulnerabilities interact to create a complex risk landscape. It is part of a series of case studies aimed at developing an actionable framework for risk governance.

Zimbabwe, a landlocked country in Southern Africa, is known for its rich natural resources and diverse ecosystems. Despite its potential, the nation has faced significant challenges, including economic decline, political instability, environmental hazards, and health crises, which have collectively shaped its systemic risk profile.

Main Economic Pillars and Vulnerabilities

Zimbabwe's economy is primarily based on agriculture, mining, and services. The main export items include platinum, cotton, tobacco, ferroalloys, gold, and textiles. Agriculture contributes significantly to the GDP and is mostly rain-fed, making it highly vulnerable to climatic shocks such as droughts.

• Agricultural Output: 19% of GDP is derived from agriculture, with maize being the staple crop.
• Land Use: 16.2 million hectares are used for agriculture, of which 4.1 million hectares are cultivated.
• Economic Decline: Since independence, poor monetary and fiscal policies, government mismanagement, and sustained conflict have led to high inflation, unemployment, and poverty.
• Land Alienation: Historical land expropriation policies have created income inequality, poverty, and vulnerability in the rural and urban populations.

Environmental Vulnerabilities

Zimbabwe is highly susceptible to natural disasters and environmental degradation due to its subtropical climate and geographical diversity.

• Climate Patterns: The country experiences one rainy season (November–March), cool winters (April–August), and hot, dry periods (September–mid-November).
• Rainfall Variability: Rainfall decreases from north to south and east to west, with Regions IV and V being most prone to droughts.
• Natural Hazards: Includes droughts, floods, earthquakes, landslides, HIV/AIDS, road traffic accidents, and land degradation.
• Drought Impact: Droughts have historically caused severe food shortages, loss of livestock, and economic instability. Notable droughts occurred in 1982/83, 1991/1992, 2002, 2004, and 2019.
• Water Scarcity: Urban centers like Harare, Bulawayo, and Kadoma face chronic water shortages, exacerbated by infrastructure decay, corruption, and economic constraints.
• Cholera Outbreaks: Linked to contaminated water sources and poor sanitation, cholera outbreaks have occurred in 2008, 2018, and 2019, resulting in high mortality and public health crises.

Political Conflicts and Social Displacement

Zimbabwe has experienced political instability and governance failures that have contributed to systemic risk and social displacement.

• Military Dominance: The Zimbabwean army has become a political actor, with military purges and regime protection fueling political violence and instability.
• Diamond Industry: The Marange fields have been sites of conflict, crimes, and human rights violations.
• Migration: Political and economic crises, coupled with ecological shocks, have led to mass migration and population displacement, particularly since the 2000s.
• International Isolation: Zimbabwe's international isolation and economic crisis have led to increased dependence on China for military and economic support.

Health Risks

Health risks in Zimbabwe are deeply intertwined with social, economic, and environmental factors.

• Road Traffic Accidents: A major public health hazard, caused by corruption, poor infrastructure, and unsafe public transport.
• HIV/AIDS: Zimbabwe has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in sub-Saharan Africa at 12.8% (2019), with 24.6% in the 15–49 age group.
• Gender and HIV: Women, especially adolescent girls and young women, are disproportionately affected due to social and economic pressures.
• Stigma and Discrimination: Section 73 of the Criminal Law Act criminalizes consensual same-sex conduct between men, contributing to stigma and discrimination against LGBT communities.
• Health System Strain: The health infrastructure is deteriorating, and limited access to clean water and sanitation exacerbates disease transmission and public health challenges.

Risk Governance in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe's risk governance framework is currently fragmented and insufficient to address systemic risks comprehensively.

• Legal Framework: The Civil Protection Act of 1989 is the primary legislation for disaster risk management, but it focuses mainly on civil protection and emergency response.
• Coordination Structures: Includes the National Civil Protection Committee and the National Food and Nutrition Council.
• Weaknesses: The Act lacks community participation, adequate funding, and a holistic approach to risk reduction and resilience building.
• Policy Gaps: The Draft DRM Bill and National DRM Policy remain unimplemented, while the National Climate Change Response Strategy provides a framework for climate adaptation and mitigation.

Conclusion

Zimbabwe's systemic risk is shaped by interconnected socio-political, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities, which have led to food insecurity, health crises, water scarcity, and political instability. The governance framework for risk management is inadequate, and decentralization, community engagement, and holistic policy implementation are critical for improving national and local resilience. The social construction of risk underscores the importance of addressing root causes such as poverty, corruption, and historical injustices to build a more resilient and equitable society.