> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 美国经济四重风险 当前来看，美国经济呈现出多重结构性错位与分化特征：一是虚实部门的错位。实体部门与金融部门运行节奏明显背离，高利率通过融资成本与信贷可得性对投资与消费形成实质约束，而金融市场则在降息预期与叙事主导下提前修复估值。名义紧缩的政策环境中，金融条件趋于宽松，而实体压力则被阶段性延后。二是地区经济的分化。不同地区因产业结构、人口流动与财政条件差异，对高利率冲击和产业政策的敏感度明显不同，区域经济分化加剧，空间层面的不均衡特征愈发突出。三是社会信心的冷却。收入与财富分配结构失衡叠加高通胀后遗效应，使中低收入与中产群体的风险缓冲能力持续削弱，社会信心由长期改善预期转向谨慎防御，内需结构持续分化。最后是制度预期的动摇。长期以来，美联储的政策独立性被视为美元信用与资产价格稳定的重要锚点，而近期围绕央行职责边界、政策取向以及未来反应函数的讨论明显升温，反映出市场正对货币政策可预期性进行重新评估。值得注意的是，制度性预期一旦发生扰动，不仅可能加剧货币与财政政策之间的协调难度，还可能通过影响市场定价逻辑与风险偏好，放大宏观波动，对美国经济的长期稳定性与生产率提升构成更深远的约束。 一是虚实部门的错位。近年来，美国政策利率保持高位，但货币政策对经济的约束避免了衰退式的剧烈调整方式，而是通过更为缓慢、分散、相对滞后的渠道向实体部门传导。在此过程中，实体经济与金融部门之间的运行表现呈现出明显背离。实体部门方面，高利率抬高了企业再融资成本，通过收紧信贷可得性，迫使企业在资本开支上趋于审慎。这导致私人投资决策周期被动拉长，企业更倾向于追求短回报周期的项目，而非长期的增长布局。与此同时，居民部门对耐用品与住房支出的利率敏感性显著增强，实体经济从扩张驱动转向渐进式降温。然而，金融部门则遵循着另一套由叙事主导的运行逻辑。资产价格对政策利率的线性反应被通胀回落预期以及对未来政策转向的想象所对冲。在阶段性流动性改善与结构性增长主题的驱动下，即使是在政策利率实质性回落有限的情况下，风险资产估值也在降息预期主导下提前修复。这种错位导致在实体部门持续面临约束的同时，金融市场提前进入了宽松状态，形成了一种以预期为主导的温差。金融条件在名义紧缩环境中保持相对宽松，货币政策紧缩效应弱化。从宏观层面看，这种错位并未消除实体部门的收缩压力，而是通过金融条件的内生反馈机制对其进行阶段性延缓。风险资产价格上行改善了部分企业的外部融资环境，并通过财富效应与信心渠道对消费与投资形成支撑，但这一支撑具有明显的结构偏向性，更易作用于资本市场参与度较高、融资渠道相对通畅的主体。换言之，金融部门的宽松并非抵消了实体部门的紧缩，而是通过时间置换的方式推迟了部分风险的集中暴露。这也解释了为何在高利率环境持续时间较长之后，实体经济并非线性下行，而更容易在特定节点出现阶段性脆弱性的集中显现。 2026年2月12日 程实，博士 (852) 2206 8049 shi.cheng@icbc.com.cn 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.com # 相关研究： 9/2/2026：《结构性货币政策的传导与边界》 4/2/2026：《区间有序、路径难测——混沌演化视角下的人民币汇率再探索》 2/2/2026：《全球生产网络与绕不开的中国——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之三》 1/30/2026：《分位数视角下的美元指数走势》 1/29/2026：《独立性承压下的货币政策路径——2026年1月美联储议息会议点评》 1/26/2026：《以历史主动精神应对混沌演化——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之二》 1/22/2026：《人工智能重塑劳动力市场的理论认知》 1/14/2026：《从银价波动看“变乱交织、动荡加剧”》 1/7/2026：《价值链攀升的中国坐标——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之二》 1/6/2026：《人工智能时代的中国比较优势》 1/5/2026：《如何充分挖掘经济潜能？——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之一》 12/30/2025：《纵横捭阖：全球价值链重构与中国产业体系突破——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之一》 12/23/2025：《中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向》 12/16/2025：《每一代人都有自己的Labubu——从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局》 12/12/2025：《格物致知，成势在人——投资于物和投资于人的时代逻辑》 图1：近年来美国固定投资不同类别增速分化 $(\%)$ 资料来源：Wind以及工银国际 图2：美国2025年3季度GDP不同行业增加值同比增速分化（%） 资料来源：Wind 以及工银国际 二是地区经济的分化。在统一的政策框架下，美国地区经济因其产业结构与人口特征的差异，呈现出高度异质化的反应路径。这一点在美国历史上屡见不鲜，美国现任副总统万斯就曾在其早年著作《乡下人的悲歌》中刻画美国地区性经济失衡现象，以其中所描绘的铁锈地带为缩影，表达边缘化群体在经济全球化与技术范式转移中被遗忘的失落感。地区经济分化主要通过三条路径不断强化：一是产业结构。不同地区对新技术扩散、资本深化与生产率提升的承接能力存在显著差异，高端产业聚集区能够持续吸引资本与高技能劳动力，而传统产业占比较高地区的转型成本显著更高，调整周期更长。二是人口与要素流动。人口向就业机会更集中、公共服务质量更高、资产回报更具确定性的地区迁移，进一步削弱落后地区的内生增长能力，并放大区域间收入与财富差距。三是财政与公共服务。地方财政对经济结构高度依赖。经济基础较弱地区在税基收缩的同时，社会支出与基础设施维护压力上升，形成低增长、高负担的长期约束。参考美联储褐皮书通过各联储辖区的定期走访与信息汇总，可以窥见美国区域经济的细微变化。具体而言，不同地区对高利率的敏感度，取决于其 产业结构与融资依赖程度。以制造业、商业地产或对信贷依赖度较高的地区为例，利率上行通过融资成本、库存周期与订单波动，更快地传导至实体活动，企业在扩产、招聘与资本支出上的表述趋于谨慎，经济活动更容易停留在持平或温和放缓区间。相比之下，服务业占比高、或受财政支出与公共投资支撑较多的地区，其经济韧性相对更强，对利率的短期敏感度也更低。这种结构性差异，使美国经济在空间维度上的不均衡格局更加显著。 图3：美国各州2025年3季度GDP增速（%） 资料来源：美国经济分析局以及工银国际 三是社会信心的冷却。在宏观政策环境持续调整的背景下，美国社会深层的阶层分化正逐步演化为制约其长期增长潜力的重要结构性约束。我们在此前的研究报告《被遗忘的中产》<sup>1</sup>中曾系统性提出，美国经济表面的韧性背后，隐藏着中产阶级收入增长滞后、财富积累受限以及风险承受能力持续弱化的问题。事实上，自上世纪七十年代以来，美国中产阶级实际收入增长明显落后于生产率提升，而财富分配则持续向高收入群体集中，这使得美国中产阶级在宏观冲击面前缺乏足够的缓冲空间。在近几年的高通胀环境下，这一结构性弱点被进一步放大。住房、医疗和教育等刚性支出长期跑赢整体通胀水平，使美国中产家庭的可支配收入弹性持续下降。与高收入群体相比，中产家庭资产配置对金融资产价格上涨的受益有限。与低收入群体相比，其又难以通过转移支付对冲冲击，从而成为宏观政策调整中最容易被遗忘的群体。2026年以来，“斩杀线”这一概念在美国社会语境中的广泛讨论，正是这种结构性压力的集中体现。该概念通常被用于描述中低收入群体在维持基本生活与陷入财务失序之间所剩无几的缓冲空间。在通胀调整后，住房、医疗与教育等刚性支出持续抬升，劳动收入的可支配结余被显著压缩，使得即使是轻微的宏观扰动，无论是利率的边际上行，还是非预期的医疗支出，都可能引发家庭资产负债表的快速恶化。在这一状态下，社会底层的经济行为逐步由长期改善预期转向防御性生存逻辑，导致内需结构的K型收缩与边际消费倾向的系统性下移。这种信心冷却可能进一步通过削弱人力资本投入意愿，压低潜在劳动生产率增速，并转化为更高的政策不确定性。 四是制度预期的动摇。当前来看，美国经济的核心风险正从短期波动转向中长期预期的动摇，多重结构性因素共同构成当前宏观经济层面需要审慎评估的不确定性变量。一是经济政策反复摇摆。当前，美国政治周期对宏观预期形成持续扰动，经济政策不确定性明显抬升，尤其是在能源转型、劳工与移民政策以 及财税安排等领域表现尤为突出。对于企业部门而言，政策路径的非连续性显著提高了中长期投资决策的复杂性。市场在评估经济基本面的同时，不得不将政策不确定性纳入风险管理框架之中，从而推高整体风险溢价。二是产业格局调整压力。在对外经贸与产业布局层面，美国经济运行环境正在经历从全球化向区域化结构的再平衡。这一调整在一定程度上有助于降低供应链脆弱性、提升关键领域的安全冗余，但同时也意味着其产业分工效率的弱化与要素成本的重新配置。短期来看，结构性调整可能推升生产成本与通胀粘性，对潜在增长形成一定约束。三是制度信任面临考验。长期以来，美联储的制度独立性被视为美元信用与价格稳定的重要锚点。近期，围绕央行职责边界、政策取向以及未来反应函数的讨论升温，促使市场对货币政策可预期性进行再评估。2026年1月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布提名前美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。决策公布后，全球金融市场出现阶段性波动，贵金属价格大幅回调，风险资产显著承压，市场风险偏好迅速收敛。这反映出投资者对美联储政策稳定性以及独立性的高度敏感与系统性重估。值得注意的是，制度预期一旦发生扰动，不仅可能加剧货币与财政政策之间的协调难度，还可能通过影响市场定价逻辑与风险偏好，放大宏观波动，对美国经济的长期稳定性与生产率提升构成更深远的约束。 图4：美国政治经济不确定性指数 资料来源：EPU以及工银国际 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其载明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # 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