> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 快递件量增速趋缓，反内卷助盈利修复 物流仓储 ——快递行业更新报告 Nan Yu nan.yu@htisec.com # 本报告导读： 过去半年快递反内卷效果显现，件量增速放缓且份额集中趋缓，头部企业盈利能力开始修复。我们认为反内卷有望持续，建议关注监管力度变化及企业竞争策略趋势。 # 投资要点： 投资建议：继续看好快递板块。反内卷驱动电商快递盈利修复，推荐龙头企业中通快递、国内盈利改善且海外件量高增的极免速递。顺丰激活经营机制驱动件量增速持续跑赢同业，短期业绩波动主要因公司积极主动的市场拓展策略和必要的长期战略投入所致，我们预计未来将随着公司费用管控加强而展现效果，建议关注时效快递龙头底部布局时机。维持中通快递-W、极免速递-W、顺丰控股优于大市。 快递件量增速Q4降至个位数，双十一大促峰值继续平滑。2025年11月全行业快递件量同比 $+5\%$ ，继续维持个位数增速。过去两年轻小件是驱动件量维持较快增长的重要驱动，2025年7月以来快递反内卷有效推动电商快递行业性价格修复，我们推测或影响轻小件增长趋势并提升快递需求品质。其中，电商双十一大促期间件量同比 $+9\%$ ，较2024年大促日均件量 $21\%$ 的增速放缓，或源于2024年大促首次大幅延长造就高基数，及2025年大促进一步提前启动致件量前移。大促日均件量是日常的1.18倍，单日件量峰值同比 $+6.6\%$ ，均连续三年收窄，反映大促对消费拉动的边际效应继续减弱，背后或是日常促销与直播带货继续分散消费，及过去一年以旧换新政策分散以往大促集中家电的大件消费，亦致快递提价幅度小于往年。 反内卷执行有力且效果显现，份额集中趋缓且盈利能力开始修复。1）反内卷有效提升单票收入：圆通/韵达/申通11月单票收入较7月累计提升0.16/0.25/0.44元。2)反内卷下行业份额集中趋缓：11月行业CR8为86.9，较9月持平。其中，中通/圆通/韵达/申通/极兔25Q3市占率分别为 $19.4\% / 15.6\% / 13.0\% / 13.2\% / 11.3\%$ ，环比-0.1/-0.4/-0.2/+0.2/+0.2pct。圆通25Q4以来份额小幅回升，反映公司凭借AI全链路赋能和基础设施升级，件量恢复较行业更快增长。申通则通过收购丹鸟物流，份额升至行业第三，且11月继续保持上升趋势。3）反内卷驱动盈利能力修复：中通/圆通/韵达/申通25Q3净利率分别同比-0.9/+0.07/-1.5/+0.5pct，环比+4.8/+0.5/-0.07/+0.6pct，头部企业普遍实现盈利能力修复，我们预计Q4盈利修复趋势将持续，未来盈利能力修复持续性取决于快递行业反内卷政策持续性。 快递反内卷效果良好，建议关注监管力度与企业竞争策略趋势。快递业2021年曾执行反内卷，并成就电商快递业绩估值双重修复，得益于邮管局保障网络稳定性、头部企业盈利修复目标坚定以及快递员权益保障政策三者共同推动。本轮反内卷由国家邮政局强调旗帜鲜明反对“内卷式”竞争开启，地方邮管局以“锁价”“锁份额”方式监督有力推进，核心产粮区率先有效提价，后向其他重点区域逐步扩散。考虑本轮反内卷取得的良好效果，以及快递企业盈利修复后的正反馈效应，我们预计反内卷政策将有望持续，在件量继续稳健增长的基础上保障行业良性竞争与盈利能力继续修复。未来建议重点关注行业反内卷监管力度与企业竞争策略趋势。 风险提示：经济波动、行业政策变化、非理性竞争、油价波动等。 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) # 目录 1. 投资建议 2. 行业量价 3 2.1. 件量增速Q4降至个位数，双十一促峰值继续平滑 2.2．行业单价环比上升，旺季提价幅度小于往年 5 2.3.异地业务核心地位稳固，中西部地区业务比重持续上行 2.4．近两年行业集中进入高位阶段，集中趋势减缓 3. 公司量价 8 3.1. 顺丰增速持续跑赢同业，头部份额小幅波动 3.2．反内卷监管下各家单价回升，盈利改善明显 9 4. 中长期观点：行业良性竞争，龙头崛起仍将可期 10 4.1. 2019年：“春秋”入“战国” 10 4.2. 战国终局：龙头崛起仍将可期 11 5. 风险提示 12 # 1. 投资建议 继续看好快递板块。反内卷驱动电商快递盈利修复，推荐龙头企业中通快递、国内盈利改善且海外件量高增的极免速递。顺丰激活经营机制驱动件量增速持续跑赢同业，短期业绩波动主要因公司积极主动的市场拓展策略和必要的长期战略投入所致，我们预计未来将随着公司费用管控加强而展现效果，建议关注时效快递龙头底部布局时机。维持中通快递-W、极免速递-W、顺丰控股优于大市。 表 1: 快递行业重点公司盈利预测与估值 <table><tr><td rowspan="2">代码</td><td rowspan="2">简称</td><td colspan="2">股价</td><td>市值</td><td colspan="3">EPS（元人民币）</td><td colspan="3">PE</td><td rowspan="2">PB</td><td rowspan="2">评级</td></tr><tr><td>2025/12/31</td><td>亿元人民币</td><td>2024</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>2024</td><td>2025E</td><td>2026E</td><td>(LF)</td></tr><tr><td>002352.SZ</td><td>顺丰控股</td><td>38.32</td><td>元</td><td>1,931</td><td>2.11</td><td>2.37</td><td>2.73</td><td>18.16</td><td>16.17</td><td>14.04</td><td>1.97</td><td>优于大市</td></tr><tr><td>2057.HK</td><td>中通快递-W</td><td>162.30</td><td>港元</td><td>1,291</td><td>11.55</td><td>13.07</td><td>14.53</td><td>14.05</td><td>12.42</td><td>11.17</td><td>1.93</td><td>优于大市</td></tr><tr><td>1519.HK</td><td>极兔速递-W</td><td>10.45</td><td>港元</td><td>938</td><td>0.05</td><td>0.33</td><td>0.45</td><td>224.37</td><td>31.54</td><td>23.03</td><td>4.28</td><td>优于大市</td></tr></table> 数据来源：Wind，HTI 注：顺丰控股、中通快递-W、极兔速递-W2025-2026年EPS采用HTI的预测EPS，中通快递-W和极兔速递-W市值单位为港元。 # 2. 行业量价 # 2.1. 件量增速Q4降至个位数，双十一大促峰值继续平滑 快递件量增速Q4降至个位数。根据国家邮政局官网，2025年11月，全国快递企业实现业务量180.6亿件，同比增长 $5.0\%$ 根据图1，2023年，疫情影响逐渐消除，快递行业回暖，快递业务量累计完成1320.7亿件，同比增长 $19.4\%$ 。2024年，小件化、逆向件、快递网络下沉以及直播电商、社区团购新模式等多重作用下，快递行业保持高位运行，快递业务量累计完成1750.8亿件，同比增长 $21.5\%$ （可比口径）。进入2025年快递行业进入中位数增长阶段，2025年1-11月，全国快递企业实现业务量1807.4亿件，同比增长 $14.9\%$ 图1：2019年1月-2025年11月快递行业月度业务量同比增速情况（%） 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 图2：2009-2025年11月月度快递业务量及同比增速情况 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 图3：2009-2025年11月累计快递业务量及增速情况 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 图4：2019年1月-2025年11月快递行业月度收入同比增速情况（%） 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 双十一大促峰值继续平滑，即时零售分流效应有限。2025年电商双十一大促收官，10月21日至11月11日全国快递件量超139亿件，同比增长 $9\%$ 较2024年日均件量 $21\%$ 的增速放缓，或源于2024年大促首次大幅延长造就高基数，及2025年大促进一步提前启动致件量前移。日均件量6.34亿件，是日常的1.18倍；单日件量峰值7.77亿件，同比增长 $6.6\%$ ，倍数和峰值增速均连续三年收窄，反映双十一大促对消费拉动的边际效应继续减弱，背后或是日常促销与直播带货继续分散全年消费，及过去一年以旧换新政策分散以往大促集中大件消费。此外，据星图统计，大促周期内全网电商GMV同比增长 $14\%$ ，其中综合电商同比 $+12\%$ ，即时零售同比 $+138\%$ 。我们认为即时零售对传统电商快递产生一定分流，但主要聚焦生鲜、日用、3C类等时效性本地商品，未对异地快递核心盘形成冲击。 表 2: 2022-2025 年双十一件量、日均业务量、单日峰值及增速情况 (亿件) <table><tr><td>年份</td><td>时间周期</td><td>业务量</td><td>业务量同比</td><td>日均业务量</td><td>相较于日常业务量倍数</td><td>单日峰值</td><td>单日峰值同比</td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>10/21-11/11</td><td>139.38</td><td>9%</td><td>6.34</td><td>1.18</td><td>7.77</td><td>6.6%</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>10/21-11/11</td><td>127.83</td><td>143%</td><td>5.81</td><td>1.25</td><td>7.29</td><td>14.1%</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>11/1-11/11</td><td>52.64</td><td>23%</td><td>4.79</td><td>1.40</td><td>6.39</td><td>15.8%</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>11/1-11/11</td><td>42.72</td><td>-37%</td><td>3.88</td><td>1.30</td><td>5.52</td><td>-20.7%</td></tr></table> 资料来源：国家邮政局，HTI # 2.2．行业单价环比上升，旺季提价幅度小于往年 2023年1-12月，单票收入整体低位运行，低于2021年及2022年同期水平，但是单票收入增速仍高于2021年同期水平。2024年，由于包裹统计口径改变，从图5可以看出单票收入整体降幅较大，但按可比口径来计算，从图6可以看出，2024年单票收入增速高于2020年，与2023年同比增速差距较小。 2025年11月，快递行业单票收入为7.62元，同比下滑 $8.3\%$ ，环比增长 $1.9\%$ 。2025年1-11月，快递行业单票收入为7.50元，同比下滑 $6.8\%$ 图5：2019年1月-2025年11月快递行业月度单票收入情况（元） 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 图6：2019年1月-2025年11月快递行业月度单票收入同比增速情况（%） 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 # 2.3.异地业务核心地位稳固，中西部地区业务比重持续上行 根据国家邮政局官网，2025年1-11月，同城、异地、国际/港澳台快递业务量分别占全部快递业务量的 $8.0\%$ 、 $89.9\%$ 和 $2.1\%$ 。与24年同期相比，同城快递业务量的比重下降1.0个百分点，异地快递业务量的比重上升1.1个百分点，国际/港澳台业务量的下降0.1个百分点。 图7：2019年1月-2025年11月快递行业分板块业务量同比增速情况（%） 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 根据国家邮政局官网，2025年1-11月，东、中、西部地区快递业务收入比重分别为 $73.7\%$ 、 $15.7\%$ 和 $10.6\%$ ，快递业务量比重分别为 $70.7\%$ 、 $19.8\%$ 和 $9.5\%$ 。与24年同期相比，东部地区快递业务收入比重下降1.2个百分点，快递业务量比重下降1.7个百分点；中部地区快递业务收入比重上升0.8个百分点，快递业务量比重上升1.1个百分点；西部地区快递业务收入比重上升0.4个百分点，快递业务量比重上升0.6个百分点。 图8：2019年1月-2025年11月快递行业分区域业务量同比增速情况（%） 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 图9：2019年1月-2025年11月快递行业分区域收入同比增速情况（%） 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 图10：2019年1月-2025年11月快递行业分区域单票收入同比增速情况（%） 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 注：2024 年增速按可比口径 # 2.4. 近两年行业集中进入高位阶段，集中趋势减缓 2021Q3后在监管政策“托底”之下，行业恶性竞争结束。2022年初到2024年底，行业长期CR8维持在84-85.3区间，主要系由于政策监管下价格竞争相对温和，份额向头部集中较为缓慢。 2025年1-11月，快递与包裹服务品牌集中度指数CR8为86.9，同比增长1.7，环比下滑0.1。 图11：2013年5月-2025年11月快递服务品牌集中度指数CR8 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI # 3. 公司量价 # 3.1. 顺丰增速持续跑赢同业，头部份额小幅波动 2021年春节后，韵达、圆通、申通业务量增速已经回归到正常水平。2022年，受到疫情影响，3家通达系快递公司业务量增速均呈现不同程度的回落，其中，韵达受疫情影响最为明显，随着疫情对经济的影响逐步减弱，3家公司业务量逐步恢复。2023年，申通、圆通业务量的增速表现强劲，市场份额上升明显，而韵达份额降幅较大，23年圆通市场份额赶超韵达，申通与韵达份额差距缩窄。2024年，申通业务量增速仍领先韵达与圆通，与韵达的市占率差距进一步缩窄。 业务量：2025年11月，顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通业务量分别同比 $+20.13\% / + 13.58\% / - 4.19\% / + 14.67\%$ ；2025年1-11月，业务量分别同比 $+27.25\% / + 18.10\% / + 9.27\% / + 15.43\%$ 。 市占率：2025年11月，顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通市占率分别为 $8.5\% / 16.0\% / 12.0\% / 13.9\%$ ；2025年1-11月，市占率分别为 $8.4\% / 15.6\% / 13.0\% / 13.1\%$ 。2025年Q3中通/圆通/韵达/申通/极兔市占率分别为 $19.4\% / 15.6\% / 13.0\% / 13.2\% / 11.3\%$ ，同比变化 $-0.6/+0.2/-0.8/-0.3/-0.3pct$ ，较Q2环比变化 $-0.1/-0.4/-0.2/+0.2/+0.2pct$ 。圆通25Q4以来份额小幅回升，反映公司凭借AI全链路赋能和基础设施升级，件量恢复较行业更快增长。申通则通过收购丹鸟物流，份额升至行业第三，且11月继续保持上升趋势。 图12：申通快递、韵达股份、圆通速递 2017 年 10 月 -2025 年 11 月业务量及同比增速情况 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 图13：主要快递公司2025年11月市场份额（%） 数据来源：申通快递、圆通速递、韵达股份、顺丰控股月度经营数据公告，Wind，HTI 图14：主要快递公司2025年1-11月市场份额（%） 数据来源：申通快递、圆通速递、韵达股份、顺丰控股月度经营数据公告，Wind，HTI 图15：主要快递公司2025年Q3市场份额（%） 数据来源：申通快递、圆通速递、韵达股份、顺丰控股月度经营数据公告，中通快递2025年三季报，极免速递2025年三季度经营数据公告，国家邮政局，HTI # 3.2. 反内卷监管下各家单价回升，盈利改善明显 单票收入：2025年11月，顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通单票收入分别同比 $-8.49\% / -2.18\% / +6.40\% / +15.87\%$ ；2025年1-11月，单票收入分别同比 $-12.2\% / -4.5\% / -3.6\% / +0.9\%$ 。圆通/韵达/申通25年11月单票收入相较于7月分别变化 $+0.16 / +0.25 / +0.44$ 元，中通Q3单票收入环比上升0.04元，反映反内卷监管下价格回升明显。顺丰25年11月单票收入相较于7月-0.08元，公司以价换量策略明显。 净利率：中通/圆通/韵达/申通25Q3净利率分别为 $21.4\% / 5.7\% / 1.6\% / 2.2\%$ 同比-0.9pct/+0.07pct/-1.5pct/+0.5pct，环比+4.8pct/+0.5pct/-0.07pct/+0.6pct，反映头部企业盈利修复明显。顺丰25Q3归母净利率同比下滑0.6pct至 $3.3\%$ 主要受公司Q3积极主动市场拓展策略和必要长期战略投入影响。 图16：申通快递、韵达股份、圆通速递2017年10月-2025年11月单票收入及同比增速情况 数据来源：国家邮政局，HTI 表 3：主要快递公司 2025 年 11 月业务量、收入、单票收入情况 <table><tr><td colspan="5">业务量(亿件)</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>2025年11月</td><td>11月同比</td><td>11月环比</td><td>11月份额</td></tr><tr><td>申通快递</td><td>25.02</td><td>14.67%</td><td>10.07%</td><td>13.9%</td></tr><tr><td>韵达股份</td><td>21.75</td><td>-4.19%</td><td>1.87%</td><td>12.0%</td></tr><tr><td>圆通速递</td><td>28.86</td><td>13.58%</td><td>3.44%</td><td>16.0%</td></tr><tr><td>顺丰控股</td><td>15.34</td><td>20.13%</td><td>0.66%</td><td>8.5%</td></tr><tr><td>行业</td><td>180.60</td><td>4.94%</td><td>2.61%</td><td>——</td></tr><tr><td colspan="5">收入(亿元)</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>2025年11月</td><td>11月同比</td><td>11月环比</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>申通快递</td><td>60.28</td><td>33.10%</td><td>21.78%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>韵达股份</td><td>46.98</td><td>2.17%</td><td>4.52%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>圆通速递</td><td>64.74</td><td>11.08%</td><td>4.15%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>顺丰控股</td><td>206.60</td><td>9.88%</td><td>2.83%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>行业</td><td>1376.50</td><td>-3.73%</td><td>4.54%</td><td></td></tr><tr><td colspan="5">单票收入(元)</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>2025年11月</td><td>11月同比</td><td>11月环比</td><td>11月环比(元)</td></tr><tr><td>申通快递</td><td>2.41</td><td>15.87%</td><td>10.55%</td><td>0.23</td></tr><tr><td>韵达股份</td><td>2.16</td><td>6.40%</td><td>2.37%</td><td>0.05</td></tr><tr><td>圆通速递</td><td>2.24</td><td>-2.18%</td><td>0.45%</td><td>0.01</td></tr><tr><td>顺丰控股</td><td>13.47</td><td>-8.49%</td><td>2.20%</td><td>0.29</td></tr><tr><td>行业</td><td>7.62</td><td>-8.27%</td><td>1.88%</td><td>0.14</td></tr></table> 数据来源：申通快递、圆通速递、韵达股份、顺丰控股月度经营数据公告,国家邮政局,Wind,HTI # 4. 中长期观点：行业良性竞争，龙头崛起仍将可期 2019年电商快递龙头企业加大份额诉求，价格战成为拉开份额差距的主动手段，电商快递行业由“春秋”入“战国”。2020-2021年行业新进入者引发非理性价格战，网络稳定性风险隐现，引发监管关注。2022-2024年行业竞争阶段性趋缓，阶段休养可修复加盟商长期信心与资本开支意愿，为龙头企业在行业出清长跑中的下一赛段发力积聚充足能量，龙头企业拥有定价权与主导权，长期崛起仍将可期。 # 4.1. 2019年：“春秋”入“战国” 春秋时代：2019年之前，电商市场高增长红利期，快递企业融资扩产你追我赶，份额差距有限。 图17：2009-2021年行业快递量维持高速增长 数据来源：Wind，HTI 图18：主要快递公司资本开支（亿元） 数据来源：Wind，中通快递投资者关系业报，HTI 战国时代：2019年起，电商快递龙头企业希望建立长期竞争壁垒，加大份额诉求，行业价格战开启。价格战，不同于成本端规模效应推动的价格下降，而是龙头拉开份额差距的主动手段，反映为净利率的下降。 图19：价格战致通达系净利率普降，21Q4开启盈利修复 数据来源：Wind，HTI 图20：2019-2021年通达系间市场份额差距拉大 数据来源：中通快递、圆通速递、韵达股份、申通快递公司年报，HTI # 4.2. 战国终局：龙头崛起仍将可期 2020-2021年行业新进入者引发非理性价格战，导致快递网络不稳定，并损害快递员权益，引发监管关注。2021年4月地方监管率先出手，快递企业亦自发开展价格规范。我们认为监管较为理性克制，出手干预源于资本扰乱市场秩序，旨在保障行业回归良性竞争。快递行业规模经济显著，长期仍将走向自然集中。 2022-2024年，监管干预下行业迎来阶段性休养修复，期间总体价格竞争温和，修复了加盟商长期信心与资本开支意愿，为龙头企业在行业出清长跑中的下一赛段发力积聚充足能量，龙头企业拥有定价权与主导权，长期崛起仍将可期。 价格端，2022年至今，消费降级、包裹小件化趋势对行业单票收入产生一定影响，但是价格竞争烈度远不及2020年水平。进入2025年，头部企业份额关注度普遍提升，春节后快递企业价格竞争增强。7月上旬国家邮政局强调将旗帜鲜明反对“内卷式”竞争，7月起义乌、广东产粮区陆续提升底价。我们认为此轮“反内卷”自上而下将继续深化，后续多地或跟进治理。“反内卷”短期将缓和竞争压力，更重要的是中长期继续保障良性竞争，有利于行业自然集中。 数据来源：中通快递、圆通速递、韵达股份、申通快递公司年报与收购交易报告书,Wind,HTI 图21：战国终局，预计电商快递：业务量集中度<利润集中度<市值集中度 # 5. 风险提示 经济波动风险、恶性价格竞争、政策风险、油价波动等。 # APPENDIX 1 Summary Investment Highlights: Investment advice: we remain positive with the outlook of the express delivery. Anti-involution drives e-commerce express profit recovery, recommending leaders ZTO Express and J&T Global Express Limited with high overseas growth. S.F. Holding's active market strategy causes short-term performance fluctuations, expected to improve with cost control. Maintain Outperform for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., J&T Global Express Limited, and S.F. Holding. Q4 express volume growth slows to single digits, with Double 11 peak smoothing. November 2025 industry volume up $5\%$ YoY, maintaining single-digit growth. Light parcels drove growth, but anti-involution since July 2025 improved pricing, affecting light parcel trends and demand quality. Double 11 volume up $9\%$ YoY, slower than $21\%$ in 2024, due to high base and early start. Daily peak volume 1.18 times normal, peak up $6.6\%$ YoY, reflecting diminishing marginal effect of promotions. Anti-involution effectively improves ASP and profitability. November ASP for YTO/Yunda/Shentong up $0.16 / 0.25 / 0.44$ RMB since July. Industry CR8 stable at 86.9. ZTO/YTO/Yunda/Shentong/J&T Q3 market share at $19.4\% / 15.6\% / 13.0\% / 13.2\% / 11.3\%$ . YTO's share rises with AI and infrastructure upgrades. Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics boosts share to third. Profitability recovery driven by anti-involution: ZTO/YTO/Yunda/Shentong Q3 NPM YoY $-0.9 / +0.07 / -1.5 / +0.5\mathrm{pct}$ , QoQ $+4.8 / +0.5 / -0.07 / +0.6\mathrm{pct}$ . Expect Q4 profitability recovery to continue, dependent on anti-involution policy. Anti-involution shows good results, focus on regulatory strength and competition strategy. 2021 anti-involution led to dual recovery in e-commerce express valuation and performance. Current round initiated by State Post Bureau, with local bureaus enforcing 'price lock' and 'share lock'. Core areas lead price increases, spreading to other regions. Expect policy to continue, ensuring healthy competition and profitability. Focus on regulatory strength and competition strategy. Risk Warning: Economic fluctuations, policy changes, irrational competition, oil price volatility. # 附录APPENDIX # 重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K. (HTJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。 # IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), Haitong International Japan K.K. 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The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services. # 评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）： 海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。 # 分析师股票评级 优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。 弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本-TOPIX,韩国-KOSPI,台湾-TAIEX,印度-Nifty100,美国-SP500;其他所有中国概念股-MSCIChina. # Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020): Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. # AnalystStockRatings Outperform:The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below. Neutral: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Underperform:The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock's listed region are as follows: Japan - TOPIX, Korea - KOSPI, Taiwan - TAIEX, India - Nifty100, US - SP500; for all other China-concept stocks - MSCI China. <table><tr><td rowspan="2"></td><td colspan="3">截至2025年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布</td><td colspan="3">截至2025年6月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布</td></tr><tr><td>优于大市</td><td>中性(持有)</td><td>弱于大市</td><td>优于大市</td><td>中性(持有)</td><td>弱于大市</td></tr><tr><td>海通国际股票研究覆盖率</td><td>92.3%</td><td>7.5%</td><td>0.2%</td><td>92.6%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>投资银行客户*</td><td>3.3%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>2.9%</td><td>4.1%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr></table> *在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。 上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。 只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。 # 此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）： 买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。 卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本-TOPIX,韩国-KOSPI,台湾-TAIEX,印度-Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股-MSCIChina. Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2025 <table><tr><td></td><td>Outperform</td><td>Neutral(hold)</td><td>Underperform</td></tr><tr><td>HTI Equity Research Coverage</td><td>92.3%</td><td>7.5%</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>IB clients*</td><td>3.3%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr></table> Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2025 <table><tr><td>Outperform</td><td>Neutral(hold)</td><td>Underperform</td></tr><tr><td>92.6%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>2.9%</td><td>4.1%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr></table> *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. # Previous rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020): Buy: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. NEUTRAL: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. SELL: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock's listed region are as follows: Japan - TOPIX, Korea - KOSPI, Taiwan - TAIEX, India - Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks - MSCI China. 海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。 Haitong International Non-Rated Research: Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only. 海通国际A股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。国泰海通证券（601211.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与国泰海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与国泰海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。 Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares: Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen. GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES (601211 CH), the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai, covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China. However, the rating system employed by GTHS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and GTHS ratings for the same A-share stocks. 海通国际优质100A股（Q100）指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由国泰海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对国泰海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。 Haitong International Quality 100 A-share (Q100) Index: HTI's Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at GTHS in Shanghai. These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the GTHS A-share team's bottom-up research. The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly. 盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据通免责声明条款：在使用盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据之前，请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明： 第一条 义利（FIN-ESG）数据系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司（以下简称“本公司”）基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成，本公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。对公司的评估结果仅供参考，并不构成对任何个人或机构投资建议，也不能作为任何个人或机构购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。本公司不对任何个人或机构投资者因使用本数据表述的评估结果造成的任何直接或间接损失负责。 第二条 盟浪并不因收到此评估数据而将收件人视为客户，收件人使用此数据时应根据自身实际情况作出自我独立判断。本数据所载内容反映的是盟浪在最初发布本数据日期当日的判断，盟浪有权在不发出通知的情况下更新、修订与发出其他与本数据所载内容不一致或有不同结论的数据。除非另行说明，本数据（如财务业绩数据等）仅代表过往表现，过往的业绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。 第三条 本数据版权归本公司所有，本公司依法保留各项权利。未经本公司事先书面许可授权，任何个人或机构不得将本数据中的评估结果用于任何营利性目的，不得对本数据进行修改、复制、编译、汇编、再次编辑、改编、删减、缩写、节选、发行、出租、展览、表演、放映、广播、信息网络传播、摄制、增加图标及说明等，否则因此给盟浪或其他第三方造成损失的，由用户承担相应的赔偿责任，盟浪不承担责任。 第四条如本免责声明未约定，而盟浪网站平台载明的其他协议内容（如《盟浪网站用户注册协议》《盟浪网用户服务（含认证）协议》《盟浪网隐私政策》等）有约定的，则按其他协议的约定执行；若本免责声明与其他协议约定存在冲突或不一致的，则以本免责声明约定为准。 SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer: Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these terms before using SusallWave FIN # ESG Data Service. 1. 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If there is any difference between this claim and other agreements, this disclaimer shall be applied. # 重要免责声明： 非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International (Japan) K.K.（“HTUKK”）的协助下发行，HTUKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。 印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities India Private Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为「印度交易所」）的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。 所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。 本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。 除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。 请访问海通国际网站www.equities.htisec.com，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。 非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。 # IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER For research reports on non-Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group Limited ("HTISGL") and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities) for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) of Hong Kong, with the assistance of Haitong International (Japan) K.K. ("HTJKK"), a wholly owned subsidiary of HTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan. For research reports on Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India ("SEBI") registered Stock Broker, Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that, inter alia, produces and distributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited ("BSE") and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited ("NSE") (collectively referred to as "Indian Exchanges"). HSIPL was acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies ("HTISG") on 22 December 2016. All the research reports are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL") and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions. 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Non U.S. Analyst Disclosure: The HTI analyst(s) listed on the cover of this Research is (are) not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and are not subject to U.S. FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with companies that are the subject of the Research; public appearances; and trading securities by a research analyst. # 分发和地区通知： 除非下文另有规定，否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。 香港投资者的通知事项：海通国际证券股份有限公司("HTISCL")负责分发该研究报告，HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动（从事证券交易）的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成《证券及期货条例》（香港法例第571章）（以下简称"SFO")所界定的要约邀请，证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。 美国投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由HTIRL，HSIPL或HTIKK编写。HTIRL，HSIPL，HTIKK以及任何非HTISG美国联营公司，均未在美国注册，因此不受美国关于研究报告编制和研究分析人员独立性规定的约束。本研究报告提供给依照1934年"美国证券交易法"第15a-6条规定的豁免注册的「美国主要机构投资者」（“Major U.S. Institutional Investor”）和「机构投资者」（"U.S. Institutional Investors"）。在向美国机构投资者分发研究报告时，Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc.（"HTI USA"）将对报告的内容负责。任何收到本研究报告的美国投资者，希望根据本研究报告提供的信息进行任何证券或相关金融工具买卖的交易，只能通过HTI USA。HTI USA位于130 West 42nd Street, FL 18, New York, NY 10036 USA, 电话+1 212-351-6052。HTI USA是在美国于U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission（"SEC"）注册的经纪商，也是Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc.（"FINRA"）的成员。HTI USA不负责编写本研究报告，也不负责其中包含的分析。在任何情况下，收到本研究报告的任何美国投资者，不得直接与分析师直接联系，也不得通过HSIPL，HTIRL或HTIKK直接进行买卖证券或相关金融工具的交易。本研究报告中出现的HSIPL，HTIRL或HTIKK分析师没有注册或具备FINRA的研究分析师资格，因此可能不受FINRA第2241条规定的与目标公司的交流，公开露面和分析师账户持有的交易证券等限制。投资本研究报告中讨论的任何非美国证券或相关金融工具（包括ADR）可能存在一定风险。非美国发行的证券可能没有注册，或不受美国法规的约束。有关非美国证券或相关金融工具的信息可能有限制。外国公司可能不受审计和汇报的标准以及与美国境内生效相符的监管要求。本研究报告中以美元以外的其他货币计价的任何证券或相关金融工具的投资或收益的价值受汇率波动的影响，可能对该等证券或相关金融工具的价值或收入产生正面或负面影响。美国收件人的所有问询请请联系： Haitong International Securities (USA) Inc. 130 West 42nd Street, FL 18 New York, NY 10036 联系人电话：+1212-351-6052 # DISTRIBUTION AND REGIONAL NOTICES Except as otherwise indicated below, any Recipient wishing to discuss this research report or effect any transaction in any security discussed in HTI's research should contact the Haitong International salesperson in their own country or region. 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