世界银行-贸易增长的纽带：来自创新贸易工具的因果关系证据（英）-2023.12-32页_1012kb

Trade-Openness Causal Effect and Economic Growth

Breakthrough contribution to causal estimation of the trade–growth nexus through novel instrumental variables.

New Instrumentals Introduced

• Lagged air transport freight capacity
• Mean GDP of top five trade partners
• Mean distance to top five largest traders

Key Findings

• ∎ 1. Trade intensity positively affects GDP per capita by 0.45-0.96% (confidence interval)
• ∎ 2. Emerging markets and developing economies report significantly stronger trade elasticity (∼0.58–0.71%) than advanced economies
• ∎ 3. Robust across
  • Different estimators (IV/GMM)
  • Alternative measurement adjustments
  • Control variables
  • Regional effects

Implications

• Trade-support investments yield substantial economic returns
• Effects are particularly pronounced in EMDEs

Robustness Checks

• Country fixed effects
• Regional fixed effects
• Including institutional quality
• GMM estimation

Methodology Highlights
-解決原教旨主義內生性問題

• Gravity models with temporal geographical variables
• Dynamic panel setting

延伸研究方向

1. 資訊通訊技術對貿易影響的邊際貢獻
2. 各類貿易組成（出口vs進口）的分化成效
3. 國際分工角色差異
4. 新型貿易型態(數位貿易)的實證影響