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REP Roundtable Summary: Latest Trends in Russia's Energy Policy

Core Content

This summary outlines the key trends and challenges in Russia's energy policy as discussed in a roundtable by Andrei Belyi from the Higher School of Economics, Moscow, on 2 September 2010. The document highlights the tension between the need for efficiency and the desire to maintain a stable, state-controlled energy sector.

Main Trends in Energy Policy

• Shift to Natural Gas: Since the mid-1990s, Russia has increasingly oriented its domestic energy consumption towards natural gas. This has led to a potential conflict with its role as an international supplier, as rising domestic demand could reduce export volumes.
• Low Energy Efficiency: Russia's energy intensity and emission intensity are twice the OECD averages. The IEA estimates that efficiency savings could free up up to 240 bcm of gas.
• Post-Crisis Oil Sector: The oil sector has seen consolidation since 2003, with six major companies controlling over 90% of production. However, the business model still favors short-term profit over sustainable investment.
• Gas Reforms: The Russian government initiated gas reforms in 2009 to reduce flaring and create a limited internal gas market. These reforms aim to differentiate between old and new gas fields, with the latter allowed to enter the market.
• Electricity Sector Liberalization: The electricity sector has seen more progress, with the creation of a wholesale market and the unbundling of RAO UES in 2007. The Market Council now plays a quasi-regulatory role.

Key Issues and Challenges

• Gazprom's Dominance: Gazprom remains a central player in the gas sector, and its monopoly structure may hinder the development of a competitive market. The government is cautious about unbundling Gazprom.
• Energy Price Regulation: The regulated downstream domestic gas price is a major barrier to reforms. Keeping prices low reduces incentives for private companies to invest and may maintain Gazprom's dominance.
• Infrastructure Obstacles: The heating and building sectors face significant infrastructural challenges, making it difficult to achieve energy efficiency targets. Upgrading the Soviet-era housing stock is expensive and complex.
• Renewable Energy Targets: Russia aims to produce 4.5% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020, but support mechanisms are still under development.
• Shale Gas and Market Competition: The emergence of shale gas in Europe could challenge Russia's position as a major gas supplier. Gazprom is not likely to invest in shale due to its high costs and risks.
• Central Asian Gas Trade: The gas trade with Central Asian countries is not explicitly included in the government's new strategy. Russia is seen as a middleman rather than a transit state.
• Pipeline Network Access: There is ongoing discussion about access to the MRG pipeline network. Gazprom seeks monopoly control, while Rosneft advocates for a UK-style model of access.
• Oligopolistic Reforms: The reforms are seen as limited liberalization, favoring efficiency over true market competition. This may not lead to significant changes in investment behavior.
• Transparency and Market Design: The success of the new market design depends on appropriate institutions and market conditions. The tax system for the new model is still being developed.
• Potential Return to PSAs: There is early-stage consideration of using production sharing agreements (PSAs) if world prices fall, though no concrete plans are in place.

Conclusion

Russia's energy policy is navigating a complex landscape, balancing the need for efficiency and market liberalization with the desire to maintain stability and control over its vast hydrocarbon resources. While reforms are underway, particularly in the gas and electricity sectors, the path to a fully liberalized and transparent market remains uncertain. The role of Gazprom, the impact of shale gas, and the challenges of infrastructure and regulation will be critical in shaping the future of Russia's energy sector.