20260227-招银国际-Inline_4QFY26_results_strong_AgentForce_momentum_to_support_2HFY27_reacceleration_6页_663kb

Salesforce (CRM US) Summary

Core Content

Salesforce, a leading CRM provider, reported its 4QFY26 results, showcasing strong performance with total revenue increasing by 12% YoY to $11.2 billion and non-GAAP operating income rising by 16% YoY to $3.8 billion, both in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates. The company's constant currency (CC) cRPO (constant revenue plus organic revenue) grew by 13% YoY to $35.1 billion, including a contribution of approximately 4 points from Informatica. This performance aligns with the company's guidance, indicating a solid quarter.

Main Points

• Revenue Growth:

  • 4QFY26 revenue: $11.2 billion (up 12% YoY)
  • FY27E revenue guidance: $45.80–46.20 billion (10–11% YoY growth)
  • FY27E revenue target: $46.1 billion (CMBIGM estimate), with a 11% CAGR from FY26 to FY30E.

• Organic Growth:

  • Organic revenue growth is expected to reaccelerate in 2HFY27E.
  • Management expects 6–7% organic revenue growth for 1QFY27E.

• AgentForce Momentum:

  • AgentForce and Data 360 ARR grew by over 200% YoY to $2.9 billion in 4QFY26.
  • AgentForce ARR reached $800 million, up 169% YoY.
  • Key factors driving growth:
    • 29,000 AgentForce deals closed since launch (up 50% QoQ).
    • Over 19 trillion tokens processed and 2.4 billion Agentic Work Units handled.
    • 60% of 4QFY26 bookings came from existing customer expansion.

• Margin Expansion:

  • Non-GAAP OPM rose by 1.1 percentage points YoY to 34.2% in 4QFY26.
  • Management guided FY27E non-GAAP OPM to expand by 0.2 percentage points YoY to 34.3%, supported by AI-enhanced efficiency.

• Valuation Update:

  • Target price lowered to $320.00 from $392.00, based on a 15x FY27E EV/EBITDA.
  • The SaaS sector valuation has declined due to investor concerns over competition from LLM providers.
  • Despite the lower target price, the firm remains optimistic about the reacceleration of organic growth in 2HFY27E and the recovery of sentiment and valuation.

• Financial Highlights:

  • Revenue growth is expected to remain steady, with CMBIGM's forecast for FY27E at $46.1 billion.
  • Non-GAAP operating profit and net profit are projected to grow, though at a slower rate than previous years.
  • The firm maintains a BUY rating, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.

Key Information

• Earnings Summary:

  • FY25A Revenue: $37,895 million
  • FY26A Revenue: $41,525 million
  • FY27E Revenue: $46,076 million
  • FY28E Revenue: $50,985 million
  • FY29E Revenue: $56,610 million

• Valuation Table:

  • Target EV/EBITDA: 15x FY27E
  • Target EV: $303,347 million
  • Valuation per share: $320.00

• Stock Performance:

  • Market Cap: $187,102.9 million
  • 12-month price performance: -12.7% absolute, -12.3% relative.
  • Shareholding structure: The Vanguard Group (8.7%), BlackRock (7.6%).

• Analyst Rating:

  • CMBIGM maintains a BUY rating, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.

• Sector Comparison:

  • Salesforce's EV/EBITDA is at a discount to the sector average of 17x.
  • It is expected to outperform the SaaS sector in terms of valuation and growth.

Business Forecasts

• Revenue Growth:

  • FY27E: $46.1 billion
  • FY28E: $51.0 billion
  • FY29E: $56.6 billion

• Non-GAAP Operating Profit:

  • FY27E: $15.8 billion
  • FY28E: $17.8 billion
  • FY29E: $20.3 billion

• Non-GAAP Net Profit:

  • FY27E: $12.4 billion
  • FY28E: $14.0 billion
  • FY29E: $15.9 billion

Profitability Metrics

• Gross Margin: Expected to increase from 78.2% in 4QFY26 to 79.0% in FY29E.
• Operating Margin: Projected to rise from 21.2% in 4QFY26 to 23.5% in FY29E.
• Adjusted Net Profit Margin: Expected to grow from 26.9% in FY27E to 28.2% in FY29E.

Risk and Disclaimer

• The report is not tailored to individual investors and is based on publicly available data.
• There are risks involved in trading any securities, and actual results may differ materially.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and is not subject to U.S. research regulations.
• The report is intended for distribution to "major U.S. institutional investors" only.