20220520-招银国际-万国数据-SW-09698.HK-Lockdowns_add_uncertainty_to_move-in_schedule_9页
报告摘要
GDS (9698 HK) Company Update Summary
Core Content
GDS, a Chinese company in the data center sector, reported FY1Q22 results that were in line with expectations. The company maintained its FY22E revenue and adj. EBITDA growth guidance despite delays in the move-in schedule caused by lockdowns. The analysis highlights the impact of macroeconomic and pandemic-related uncertainties on the company's performance and valuation.
Main Points
-
FY1Q22 Results:
- Revenue: RMB2,244mn (+32% YoY, +3% QoQ)
- Adj. EBITDA: RMB1,051mn (+29% YoY, +2% QoQ)
- Gross profit: RMB486mn (+23% YoY, +0% QoQ)
- Gross margin: 21.7% (-1.6 pct pts YoY, -0.6 pct pts QoQ)
- Net loss widened to RMB574mn, missing both estimates and consensus.
-
Guidance and Adjustments:
- Revenue guidance for FY22E: RMB9,320-9,680mn (+19.2% to +23.8% YoY)
- Adj. EBITDA guidance for FY22E: RMB4,285-4,450mn (+15.7% to +20.2% YoY)
- Capex: RMB12,000mn (-12.4% YoY)
- The company expects 2Q22 tariffs to stabilize at current levels.
-
Customer Mix and Growth:
- The company's full-year target of +90k sqm organic net adds in committed area was partially met in 1Q22 with 20% of the target achieved.
- Top two customers, Alibaba and Tencent, contributed 45% of revenue in 1Q22, but their growth rates slowed to +31% and -5% YoY respectively, compared to +44% and +5% in 4Q21.
- Large enterprise and FSI revenue contribution is expected to increase gradually.
-
Valuation and Recommendation:
- The company maintains a BUY recommendation with a revised target price of HK$44.55 (18x FY22E adj. EV/EBITDA, down from prior 20x).
- The recommendation reflects macro/pandemic uncertainty but is based on the long-term trend of increasing cloud investment in China.
- EV/EBITDA is used as the valuation method due to its better reflection of IDC operating profitability compared to P/E.
Key Financial Figures
| Financial Metric | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 5,739 | 7,819 | 9,129 | 10,921 | 13,197 |
| Adj. EBITDA (RMB mn) | 2,681 | 3,703 | 4,192 | 5,041 | 6,148 |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) | (669) | (1,191) | (1,638) | (1,832) | (899) |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 20.4 | 20.0 | 20.6 | 18.7 | 16.3 |
Shareholder and Market Data
- Market Cap: US$41,922 mn
- Avg 3 mths t/o: 103.14 mn
- 52w High/Low (US$): 78.60/18.90
- Total Issued Shares: 1,457 mn
- Shareholding Structure:
- STT GDC: 31.8%
- William Huang - Chairman: 5.6%
- Ping An: 2.2%
Share Performance
| Timeframe | Absolute Return | Relative Return |
|---|---|---|
| 1-month | -20.4% | -17.0% |
| 3-months | -30.8% | -18.5% |
| 6-months | -50.0% | -38.6% |
Key Assumptions and Growth Projections
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Total Area in Service:
- FY20A: 333,853
- FY21A: 487,883
- FY22E: 575,702
- FY23E: 702,356
- FY24E: 828,781
-
Total Area Utilized:
- FY20A: 234,731
- FY21A: 319,475
- FY22E: 376,565
- FY23E: 465,678
- FY24E: 557,186
-
Utilization Rate:
- FY20A: 72%
- FY21A: 67%
- FY22E: 67%
- FY23E: 66%
- FY24E: 67%
-
Average MSR (RMB/sqm/month):
- FY20A: 2,333
- FY21A: 2,260
- FY22E: 2,159
- FY23E: 2,126
- FY24E: 2,133
-
Depreciation (RMB mn):
- FY20A: 1,638
- FY21A: 2,617
- FY22E: 3,111
- FY23E: 3,695
- FY24E: 3,695
Valuation Comparison with Peers
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Market Cap (US$ mn) | Price (LC) | TP (LC) | EV/EBITDA (FY22E) | EV/EBITDA (FY23E) | EBITDA Margin (FY22E) | EBITDA Margin (FY23E) | Revenue CAGR (FY21-24E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDS | 9698 HK | BUY | 5,342 | 27.50 | 44.55 | 20.6 | 18.7 | 46% | 46% | 19% |
| 21Vianet | VNET US | NR | 866 | 5.85 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.7 | 27% | 27% | 15% |
| Sinnet | 300383 CH | NR | 2,568 | 9.66 | N/A | 9.4 | 8.3 | 23% | 24% | 13% |
| Baosight | 600845 CH | NR | 9,621 | 48.61 | N/A | 20.8 | 15.7 | 20% | 21% | 30% |
| AtHub | 603881 CH | NR | 1,213 | 24.93 | N/A | 11.2 | 8.9 | 70% | 70% | 23% |
| ChinData | CD US | NR | 2,322 | 6.33 | N/A | 8.3 | 6.2 | 50% | 50% | 37% |
| Equinix | EQIX US | NR | 58,021 | 637.44 | N/A | 20.9 | 18.8 | 46% | 47% | 11% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR US | NR | 36,410 | 125.29 | N/A | 20.6 | 18.8 | 53% | 53% | 8% |
Financial Summary Highlights
-
Net Cash from Operating Activities:
- FY20A: 321 mn
- FY21A: 1,208 mn
- FY22E: 271 mn
- FY23E: 2,478 mn
- FY24E: 2,620 mn
-
Capital Expenditures:
- FY20A: (8,021) mn
- FY21A: (9,699) mn
- FY22E: (8,307) mn
- FY23E: (6,880) mn
- FY24E: (6,880) mn
-
Net Change in Cash:
- FY20A: 11,087 mn
- FY21A: (4,364) mn
- FY22E: 1,499 mn
- FY23E: (3,052) mn
- FY24E: (1,484) mn
-
Cash at the End of the Year:
- FY20A: 16,259 mn
- FY21A: 9,968 mn
- FY22E: 11,462 mn
- FY23E: 8,409 mn
- FY24E: 6,925 mn
Key Ratios
| Ratio | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total area in service (‘000 sqm) | 334 | 488 | 576 | 702 | 829 |
| Avg. UTR | 72% | 67% | 67% | 66% | 67% |
| Avg. MSR (RMB/sqm/month) | 2,333 | 2,260 | 2,159 | 2,126 | 2,133 |
| Revenue YoY Growth | 39.2% | 36.2% | 16.8% | 19.6% | 20.8% |
| Gross Profit YoY Growth | 48.7% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 28.6% | 49.1% |
| Adj. EBITDA YoY Growth | 47.0% | 38.2% | 13.2% | 20.3% | 22.0% |
| Net Profit (loss) YoY Growth | 51.0% | 78.0% | 38.0% | 12.0% | -51.0% |
Summary
GDS's FY1Q22 results were in line with expectations, showing strong revenue and adj. EBITDA growth despite challenges from lockdowns affecting move-in schedules. The company maintains its growth guidance for FY22E, but adjusts adj. EBITDA forecasts downward due to lower utilized area. The recommendation to maintain a BUY rating is based on a revised target price reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty. The company's key customers, Alibaba and Tencent, show a slowing growth rate, while large enterprise and FSI contributions are expected to rise. The valuation approach focuses on EV/EBITDA, highlighting the company's operating performance and growth potential. Financial data indicates a stable cash flow and a gradual increase in total area in service, with a focus on improving utilization rates and maintaining profitability.
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