2025-06-12-Jefferies-土地证券（LAND）_管理层演示_居家受限_7页_369kb

Land Securities Equity Research Summary

June 13, 2025

• Strategic Shift: Land Securities (LAND LN) announced via Management Presentation "House Bound" an accelerated rotation from its portfolio, primarily London office and smaller assets, into the premium Build-to-Rent (BTR) residential sector. This move, initially forecasted with a significant price target reduction to 556p (down 12% from 631p), aims for an EPRA EPS of ~5p in FY30 in a challenging sector, despite a target growth rate increase to +5% annually.
• Market View & Investment Execution: Land Securities believes the REIT has a structural income growth potential in the premium BTR market, correlated with wage growth, in urban locations. It is executing its strategy by selling assets and investing in BTR through a combination of development and acquisition (targeting ~£3bn of asset sales). Private equity involvement is noted on development sites with mid-teens IRR target.
• Portfolio & Asset Sales: The focus is on avoiding sectors like life sciences (renant market uncertainty) and urban logistics (high fulfillment costs). There are 3 development sites and 2 office sites for sale, with active interest, particularly for co-living repurposing. Development risk includes uncertain exit yields post-policy changes.
• Premium BTR Focus: LAND focuses on the premium BTR market, targeting 3% pa rental growth based on want-to-rent, not can't-afford tenants. It plans to ultimately manage BTR properties in-house after acquiring scale via outsourcing or direct purchase, viewing BTR as politically neutral with potential for 2-4% EPS/DPS growth driven by policy.
• Financials & Capital: Guidance is difficult due to sticky interest rates. Norges (25% owner) 's Covent Garden acquisition is noted as attractive. Capital inflows to the UK from the US are viewed positively. Current market cap is £4.7Bn ($6.4Bn).
• Valuation & Risk: Cited as HOLD by analysts with a Price Target of 556p, implying potential underperformance (-10%+/15%- range from Hold target or underlying issues like softening guidance and policy risks impacting returns).