> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Leapmotor (9863 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Overview Leapmotor, a leading new energy vehicle (NEV) startup in China, has posted its third consecutive profitable interim result for the second quarter of 2026. This performance indicates a strong recovery and growth trajectory. The company is expected to deliver significantly stronger earnings in the second half of 2026 (2H26E) due to volume growth and margin expansion. Leapmotor is also expanding its international presence through its joint venture with Stellantis, with exports forming a second growth engine. The firm maintains a BUY rating and a target price of HK\$60.00, based on a 15x FY27E P/E ratio. ## Main Points and Key Information - **Financial Performance:** - 2Q26 revenue reached a record high of RMB27.3bn, up 92% YoY and 4% above estimates. - Net profit in 2Q26 was RMB598mn, reaching an all-time high, but slightly below the projected RMB878mn due to lower government grants and forex losses. - Gross margin improved to 12.6%, aligning with forecasts. - Operating profit for 2Q26 was RMB538mn, showing a strong recovery. - **Sales and Product Strategy:** - FY26E sales volume forecast was raised by 3% to 1.0mn units, with 2H26E deliveries expected to reach 0.64mn units (+72% YoY, +81% quarter-over-quarter). - The A05 model was launched on 11 August 2026, extending the A-series down-market, and is expected to maintain monthly volumes above 30,000 units in 2H26E. - Leapmotor has completed its A/B/C/D matrix spanning RMB60k-300k, and is set to launch new D-series models and upgrade B/C-series in 2027, expecting more launches than in 2026. - **Export Strategy:** - Leapmotor International, a joint venture with Stellantis, posted a net loss in 1H26E due to forex losses but is expected to turn profitable for the full year. - The company targets 0.35-0.4mn overseas units in 2027, primarily through direct exports, with local assembly in Malaysia, Spain, and Brazil. - Localization is a long-term goal, but volume growth is currently prioritized over near-term profitability. - **Earnings and Valuation:** - Revised FY26-28E net profit forecasts are RMB3.2bn, RMB4.9bn, and RMB7.6bn, respectively. - The target price is HK\$60.00, with a 40.3% upside from the current price of HK\$42.76. - Key valuation metrics include a P/S ratio of 0.5 for FY26E and a P/E ratio of 16.6 for FY26E, decreasing to 10.7 for FY27E and 7.0 for FY28E. - The P/B ratio has decreased from 3.4 in 2023A to 1.7 in 2028E, indicating potential value appreciation. - **Stock Performance:** - Over the past 12 months, the stock has shown a price performance of -4.4% absolute and -0.4% relative. - 1-month and 3-month returns were 17.7% and 0.2%, respectively. - The 52-week high and low are HK\$69.00 and HK\$33.46. - **Shareholding Structure:** - Mr. Jiangming Zhu and his concert party hold 25.5% of the shares. - Stellantis N.V. holds 20.0%. ## Financial Highlights ### Income Statement (YE 31 Dec) | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 16,747 | 32,164 | 64,732 | 103,541 | 120,569 | 145,651 | | Gross profit (RMB mn) | 80 | 2,694 | 9,412 | 13,790 | 16,023 | 19,940 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | -2,820.8 | 538.4 | 3,160.5 | 4,949.2 | 7,647.0 | 8,312 | ### Balance Sheet (YE 31 Dec) | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Total assets (RMB mn) | 28,453 | 37,647 | 62,818 | 91,784 | 108,349 | 132,101 | | Total liabilities (RMB mn) | 15,955 | 27,576 | 48,700 | 73,816 | 84,953 | 100,573 | | Total equity and liabilities (RMB mn) | 28,453 | 37,647 | 62,818 | 91,784 | 108,349 | 132,101 | ### Cash Flow (YE 31 Dec) | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Net cash from operations (RMB mn) | 1,082 | 8,471 | 12,623 | 23,823 | 15,612 | 22,167 | | Net cash from investing (RMB mn) | -4,860 | -13,323 | -11,086 | -14,415 | -9,840 | -14,380 | | Net cash from financing (RMB mn) | 8,552 | -503 | 3,097 | -664 | -792 | -1,244 | ## Profitability Metrics | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Gross margin (%) | 0.5% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.7% | | Operating margin (%) | -26.1% | -9.9% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | | Net margin (%) | -1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | | ROE (%) | -40.6% | -25.0% | 4.5% | 19.7% | 23.9% | 27.8% | ## Key Risks - Lower sales or gross margin than expected. - Slower overseas ramp-up than anticipated. - Sector de-rating. ## Analysts and Ratings - **Analysts:** Wenjing DOU, Ji SHI, and Austin Liang. - **Rating:** BUY. - **Target Price:** HK\$60.00. - **Upside:** 40.3%. - **CMBIGM Ratings:** - BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months. - HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10%. - SELL: Potential loss of over 10%. - OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant market benchmark. - MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant market benchmark. - UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant market benchmark. ## Legal and Disclosures - The report is not individually tailored and should not be relied upon for investment decisions without independent evaluation. - CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and may not be subject to U.S. regulations on research reports. - The report is intended solely for major U.S. institutional investors. - In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser, and may be subject to legal responsibility only to the extent required by law. - In the UK, the report is only for persons within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. ## Conclusion Leapmotor is positioned well for continued growth in both domestic and international markets. Its strong performance in 2Q26 and optimistic outlook for 2H26E, combined with its product roadmap for 2027, supports the BUY rating. The company's focus on volume growth and the expansion of its product range are key drivers of future performance. Investors are advised to consider the risks and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.