> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Standing at New Starting Point # -- Review of the Panda Bond Market in 2025 and Outlook for 2026 Over the past year, the Panda Bond market achieved an outstanding performance. By the end of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of the Panda Bond market had exceeded RMB 1 trillion. Although the annual issuance scale in 2025 experienced a slight dip, significant progress was made in market structural optimization: the proportion of pure overseas issuers rose to nearly $50\%$ , and the bond tenors further shifted toward longer maturities. These positive developments signify that Panda Bonds have evolved from an early-stage pilot financing channel into an onshore RMB asset allocation platform, recognized by mainstream international issuers and investors. Entering the first year of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, the global economic landscape is complex and volatile, with cross-border capital flows becoming increasingly sensitive. Amid these challenges, the development opportunities for the Panda Bond market are still clear. China's stable macro-policy stance, the continuous deepening of institutional-level opening up, and its increasingly prominent role as a "stabilizer" in the global industrial and financial landscape, have laid a solid foundation for the high-quality development of the Panda Bond market. Currently, the Panda Bond market stands at a new starting point. If it can achieve steady improvements in market depth, breadth, and resilience through institutional-level opening up and refined governance, it will be able to steadily advance in the process of connecting global markets with Chinese opportunities in the future. # I. Review of 2025: Cumulative issuance scale exceeded RMB 1 trillion, and the issuance scale of pure overseas entities reached a record high. By the end of 2025, the total issuance scale of Panda Bond market had exceeded RMB 1 trillion, with issuance by pure overseas issuers hitting a record high. Although the annual issuance scale moderated compared with the previous year, the number of issuances continued to grow, and the issuance by pure overseas issuers increased significantly. The cumulative issuance scale exceeded RMB 1 trillion. From 2005 to 2025, a total of 710 Panda Bonds were issued by a range of issuers, bringing the total issuance scale to RMB 1,158.95 billion, exceeding RMB 1 trillion. Although the Panda Bond market issuance scale contracted moderately in 2025, the number of issues hit a record high. In 2025, a total of 44 entities issued 124 Panda Bonds in the whole market, with a total issuance scale of RMB 183.56 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of $5.8\%$ in issuance scale but a $13.7\%$ increase in the number of issuances. Figure 1: Issuance of Panda Bonds, 2005-2025 (RMB in billion) Data source: Wind, compiled by CCXI The interbank bond market remained the primary issuance venue for Panda Bonds, while issuance scale on the exchange market edged up slightly in 2025. In 2025, Panda Bond issuance scale on the interbank bond market reached RMB 173.31 billion, accounting for approximately $94.4\%$ of the total. Issuance on the exchange market totaled RMB 10.25 billion, accounting for about $5.6\%$ of the total, up 1 percentage point year on year. The increase in the exchange market's share was mainly driven by returning issuers, including China Shuifa Singyes Energy Holdings Limited and Beijing Enterprises Water Group Limited. In addition, two new issuers debuted on the exchange market this year, namely Hengan International Group Co., Ltd. and Capital Environment Holdings Limited. Figure 2: Issuance Venues, 2005-2025 (RMB in Billion) Data source: Wind, compiled by CCXI The proportion of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and above increased significantly. Issuance scale for bonds with a maturity of 1 year or less was basically unchanged from last year; the share of 2-year bonds fell to $7.3\%$ from $11.5\%$ last year. Although the share of 3-year bonds experienced a slight decline, dropping from $42.5\%$ to $39.5\%$ , it remained the largest category by issuance volume. Meanwhile, the share of 5-year and longer-tenor bonds increased significantly from $23.5\%$ in 2024 to over $30\%$ in 2025. The tenor profile of Panda Bonds is gradually lengthening, showing deepening investors recognition of Panda Bonds. This trend is expected to encourage more issuers to participate in the Panda Bond market. Figure 3: Panda Bond Tenor Profile in 2025 Data source: Wind, compiled by CCXI The issuance shares of non-financial Panda Bond issuers and multilateral institutions further increased. In 2025, non-financial, financial, multilateral development institutions, and sovereign issuers accounted for $65.7\%$ , $10.1\%$ , $20.4\%$ , and $3.8\%$ of the total issuance scale, respectively. Among these, the share of non-financial issuers rose by approximately 8 percentage points compared to the previous year, while that of multilateral development institutions increased by about 10 percentage points. Meanwhile, sovereign issuers returned to the Panda Bond market in 2025. Amid ongoing uncertainties in the international financial markets, the Panda Bond market, as an increasingly mature onshore RMB funding pool, provides an important diversified financing option for non-financial issuers. ure 4: Panda Bond Issuer Types in 2025 Financial Non-financial MFIs Sovereign and Local Government Data source: Wind, compiled by CCXI The proportion of pure overseas issuers further increased in 2025, with their issuance scale hitting a record high. With the expanding demand for RMB usage among pure overseas issuers, their market share significantly increased in 2025. Panda bond issuance by pure overseas issuers reached RMB 86.4 billion, jumping from approximately $40\%$ in 2024 to $47\%$ . This growth is mainly attributed to the following three factors: 1) As the use of RMB in cross-border trade and investment settlement increases, the demand for RMB from overseas entities rises. Panda Bonds serve as an effective channel for them to actively manage RMB liabilities and integrate into China's financial system. 2) Compared with domestic Chinese issuers, Panda Bonds issued by pure overseas issuers provide investors with a certain yield spread advantage. Meanwhile, Chinese investors have gained better understanding of Panda Bond Market and increased their participation; 3) Against the backdrop of a continued relative advantage in RMB interest rates and stable exchange rate expectations, Panda Bonds remain an ideal low-cost financing instrument for overseas enterprises with business in China or trade exposure to China (such as multinational manufacturing and trading companies). Figure 5: Proportion of Pure Overseas Issuance Scale, 2015-2025 Data source: Wind, compiled by CCXI # II. Representative Cases since 2025: More Diversified Issuers and Landmark Financial Institutions. Since 2025, the regional diversification of the Panda Bond market has continued to improve; Against the backdrop of the continuous development of RMB internationalization, several landmark financial institutions have issued their debut Panda Bonds, supporting the RMB internationalization in both investment and financing. # (a) The African Export-Import Bank issued the inaugural Panda Bond by an African multilateral financial institution (MFI), which marks a new stage in China-Africa financial cooperation. In April 2025, the African Export-Import Bank publicly issued Panda Bonds in China's interbank market, with a size of RMB 2.2 billion, a tenor of 3 years, and a coupon rate of $2.99\%$ . CCXI assigned the African Export-Import Bank a AAA issuer credit rating with a stable outlook. The African Export-Import Bank is a multilateral development bank established by 25 African sovereign states and three African multilateral development institutions under the auspices of the African Development Bank. Currently, its member states cover nearly the entire African continent. The Bank mainly provides financing services for entities related to imports and exports in Africa, promotes intra-African and international trade activities through trade finance, and provides direct financing and project financing for the imports and exports of African enterprises in energy, communications, services, manufacturing, metals and mining industries. It also invests in infrastructure projects that enhance Africa's export capacity. Africa is an important trading partner of China. In the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Summit, the President Xi specifically emphasized the need to encourage and support African entities in issuing Panda Bonds in China. The successful issuance of Panda Bonds by the African Export-Import Bank marks a new stage in China-Africa financial cooperation and will encourage more African issuers to enter the market. # (b) German multinational enterprises remain highly active in the Panda Bond market; Henkel Group issued its debut Panda Bond in early January 2026. In 2025, three major German automobile manufacturers, namely Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, issued a total of 10 Panda Bonds, with a combined issuance scale of RMB 17 billion. During the same period, BASF, the world's largest integrated chemical company, and Bayer, a renowned multinational pharmaceutical company, issued 5 Panda Bonds with a combined issuance scale of RMB 7 billion. In terms of issuance scale, German issuers accounted for over one-quarter of the total issuance of pure overseas Panda Bonds in 2025. On January 7, 2026, Henkel Hong Kong Holding Limited issued a Panda Bond, with Henkel AG & Co. KGaA acting as the guarantor. This transaction represents the first pure overseas Panda Bond issued in 2026 and marks the debut of the German industrial giant Henkel Group in the Panda Bond market. Germany and China maintain close economic and trade relations. In 2025, China became Germany's largest trading partner again and remains a crucial investment destination for German enterprises. Going forward, Germany is expected to further deepen its economic and trade cooperation with China. Currently, all German Panda Bond issuers in the market are rated by CCXI. CCXI will continue to support the business operations of German multinational enterprises in the Chinese market. # (c) Several globally renowned financial institutions issued debut Panda Bonds, supporting the internationalization of RMB in both investment and financing. In 2025, multiple globally renowned financial institutions, including Barclays Bank, CIMB, and Morgan Stanley, issued Panda Bonds for the first time. The "25 Morgan Stanley PPN001BC" issued by Morgan Stanley also marked the inaugural Panda Bond issued by a U.S. entity, further enhancing the regional diversification of the Panda Bond market. With the continuous advancement of RMB internationalization, foreign financial institutions' willingness to invest and raise funds in RMB has been steadily increasing. The issuance of Panda Bonds by foreign financial institutions helps supplement RMB liquidity in overseas markets and enriches the usage scenarios for RMB offshore, thereby supporting the RMB internationalization in both investment and financing. CCXI holds a dominant position in providing rating services to foreign financial institutions, having successively provided rating services to institutions such as National Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bank, United Overseas Bank, HSBC, CIMB, Maybank, and Crédit Agricole. In the future, CCXI will continue to support global financial institutions in accessing the Chinese bond market. # (d) Yuexiu Real Estate Trust launched the first listed REITs Panda Bond, further diversifying the issuer composition of the Panda Bond market. In July 2025, Yuexiu Real Estate Trust successfully issued Panda Bonds through an offshore SPV, with an issuance scale of RMB 0.6 billion, a term of 3 years, and a coupon rate of $2.7\%$ . This Panda Bond represents the first listed REITs Panda Bond in the market, marking another innovation in the Panda Bond market and further diversifying the issuer structure. Additionally, this Panda Bond has opened up a new financing channel for listed REITs and provided a positive demonstration for promoting high-quality development of the REITs industry. CCXI has assigned Yuexiu Real Estate Trust a credit rating of AAA with a stable outlook. # III. 2026 Panda Bond Market Outlook: Under the dual drivers of policy impetus and market deepening, the Panda Bond market is set to enter a new phase of development that equally emphasizes expansion opportunities and risk management. In 2026, driven by the combined effects of policy support, the interest rate environment and market demand, the Panda Bond market will maintain a development momentum featuring diversified and parallel growth. Improving the credit rating system, strengthening cross-border information disclosure, and optimizing the capital flow management mechanism will likely become key factors that might shape the further expansion of the Panda Bond market. # (a) Benefiting from multiple positive signals at the policy and infrastructure levels, the Panda Bond market is expected to remain vibrant in 2026. In terms of market infrastructure and the policy environment, a series of favorable developments have recently emerged. At the policy level, supportive signals continue to be released, providing a solid foundation for market growth. In terms of fiscal and tax support, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have explicitly clarified that for the period 2026-2027, corporate income tax and value-added tax (VAT) on bond interest income obtained by overseas institutions from investing in the domestic bond market shall be temporarily exempted, further enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated bonds. The 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China also clearly stated that more eligible overseas entities would be welcomed to issue Panda Bonds, with commitments to further deepen the high-level opening-up of financial markets and facilitate cross-border RMB usage. As RMB internationalization continues to deepen and expand in areas such as cross-border payments and financial transactions, Panda Bonds, as an important vehicle for promoting RMB internationalization, will continue to benefit from this momentum. At the same time, continuous improvements in underwriting service systems have created favorable conditions for introducing a more diverse and high-quality range of issuers into the market. DBS Bank (China) Limited recently obtained general lead underwriter qualification for non-financial enterprise debt financing instruments in the interbank bond market, which is expected to help bring more high-quality issuers from Singapore and Southeast Asia into the market, further enriching the regional and industry composition of Panda Bond issuers. # (b) In 2026, Panda Bonds will maintain financing advantages, but attention should also be paid to the potential impacts of changes in domestic and international macroeconomic situations on financing environment and exchange rate expectations. Although both China and the United States are in a cycle of monetary policy easing, there are marked differences in the certainty of their respective policy paths. Sticky core inflation, a resilient labor market, and uncertainty over the future direction of monetary policy in the United States make US dollar financing costs and their trend difficult to predict, increasing interest rate risks and challenges for overseas issuers' financing plan. In contrast, China's monetary policy remains "self-oriented", providing stable and clear expectations for RMB financing. As outlined at the 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China, China's monetary policy in 2026 will be anchored by the general tone of "moderate easing". The central bank will deploy a combination of structural tools and aggregate policies to maintain reasonably ample liquidity. Overall, RMB financing will retain its attractive cost advantage, and a relatively clear policy path will provide a predictable financing environment for overseas entities, supporting their medium- and long-term funding planning and arrangements. Meanwhile, supported by economic fundamentals and macroprudential regulation, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain generally stable, offering a relatively controllable environment for overseas issuers to manage exchange rate risks. Nevertheless, it should be noted that factors such as global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and cross-border capital flows may still cause periodic disturbances to the exchange rate. Issuers need to incorporate corresponding risk mitigation arrangements into their financing decisions. # (c) Driven by stable economic expectations and the continuous improvement of market # depth, mature issuers and multinational institutions are expected to maintain active in the Panda Bond market. On the one hand, the peak of maturity brings a clear refinancing demand, providing basic support for the market. WIND data shows that the amount to be repaid in the Panda Bond market in 2026 will exceed RMB 100 billion. Issuers such as New Development Bank, Deutsche Bank, Beijing Holdings and BMW China Capital have clear refinancing needs, and such maturity rolling pressure has become a fundamental factor supporting market issuance. More importantly, with the gradual narrowing of the information gap between domestic and overseas markets, investors' understanding of mature issuers has been deepening, which is directly reflected in the gradual convergence of their issuance premiums. Some multinational companies, such as Bayer, BMW, Volkswagen, BASF, have seen their latest issuance spreads decline significantly compared with their initial issuance. This "learning effect" has not only reduced funding cost but also enhanced the predictability and attractiveness of Panda Bonds as a financing channel, driving mature issuers to shift from the initial "trial" layout to viewing it as a long-term and stable RMB financing tool. On the other hand, the structural advantages of China's economy and its favorable long-term development prospects inject sustained growth momentum into the Panda Bond market. With the launch of the 15th Five-Year Plan, China's development potential in strategic sectors such as technological innovation, green energy, and advanced manufacturing will continue to unfold, attracting more multinational enterprises to deepen their presence in China and thus generating normalized RMB financing demand. Meanwhile, international financial institutions are expected to become important issuers in the Panda Bond market, driven by the need to expand their China operations and improve their comprehensive service systems. For example, UBS Group has recently applied to issue Panda Bonds to meet corresponding capital replenishment and operating fund needs amid the rapid growth of its China business. Participation of such institutions in the Panda Bond market can not only help them broaden domestic financing channels and accumulate experience in RMB bond issuance, but also help them build an RMB financial service chain for clients and further enhance their competitiveness in the Chinese market. (d) Amid diverging global financing costs and growing demand for infrastructure and industrial upgrading in developing countries, more issuers from developing economies, including those in Africa and Central Asia, are expected to emerge successively. For lower-rated issuers, "sovereign + credit enhancement" model supported by multilateral # institution guarantees may become an important avenue for exploring the Panda Bond market. Currently, high interest rates in developed economies have pushed up overseas financing costs, while the relatively low interest rate environment in China's bond market offers a more attractive RMB financing alternative for emerging economies. Against this backdrop, two types of developing countries are likely to see a notable increase in financing demand via Panda Bonds: The first consists of countries with steadily improving sovereign credit ratings and experience in international markets. These countries generally have funding needs for infrastructure construction and industrial upgrading, and their improved sovereign credit profiles allow them to access the Panda Bond market at acceptable costs. The second comprises countries with relatively limited creditworthiness and greater difficulties in standalone issuance. Such countries are expected to lower issuance thresholds and reduce financing costs through the "sovereign + multilateral credit enhancement" model, supported by guarantees or credit enhancement from multilateral institutions such as the African Development Bank and the AIIB, while directing raised funds to green and sustainable development projects. The growing preference for RMB financing among emerging economies is mainly driven by the following factors: First, against the backdrop of the China-US interest rate differential, RMB financing costs are significantly lower than those of US dollar bonds. Second, RMB financing helps diversify the currency structure of debt and mitigate exchange rate risks. Third, credit enhancement tools such as multilateral institution guarantees can alleviate investor concerns over the creditworthiness and information asymmetry of overseas entities. Fourth, Panda Bonds can be precisely matched with sustainable projects such as infrastructure, aligning with the funding deployment guidelines of international multilateral institutions. Fifth, as the cross-border usage of RMB expands, emerging markets are increasingly demanding RMB assets and settlement channels, and Panda Bonds provide them with a channel to access and repatriate RMB assets. # (e) The Panda Bond market is facing a strategic balance between scale expansion and quality control. It is recommended that institutional opening-up be adopted to coordinate market expansion and risk prevention, so as to achieve high-quality development in the future. At present, driven by both cost advantages and the need for RMB internationalization, the Panda Bond market has gained strong momentum. However, market expansion may also exacerbate credit risks, information asymmetry and institutional connectivity obstacles. If the market continues to rely on short-term interest rate advantages to drive scale growth, it may easily fall into the dilemma of "emphasizing speed over quality". Especially when involving issuers from developing countries and non-financial enterprises, challenges such as greater difficulty in credit risk identification, cross-border information asymmetry, and high costs of sustainable bond certification may become more prominent. Based on this, we believe that the expansion of the Panda Bond market should be orderly advanced within the framework of institutional opening-up. The core approach is to steadily relax market access while establishing a tiered and categorized management model and a risk buffering mechanism, thereby achieving "managed expansion" through market-oriented means. Specifically, progress can be made in four aspects: First, it is recommended to improve the risk pricing foundation centered on credit rating and information disclosure, support domestic rating agencies in developing global rating scales applicable to cross-border entities, guide issuers to enhance the quality of information disclosure, and strengthen the market's risk identification capabilities. In 2025, CCXI innovatively launched the Global RMB Credit Rating Scale—the first global rating scale benchmarked against RMB repayment capacity, which can measure the willingness and ability of different types of entities to repay RMB debts. This scale would effectively enhance the differentiation of domestic credit ratings and supports the expansion of the Panda Bond market. Second, implement differentiated market access and regulatory procedures. Establish categorized management mechanisms for different types of issuers, streamline approval processes for highly creditworthy entities, encourage high-quality issuers such as resource-riched countries and multilateral institutions to enter the market, and broaden channels for RMB fund repatriation. Third, promote the alignment of sustainable Panda Bond standards with international norms, enrich the benchmarking catalog for green Panda Bonds, reduce certification costs for cross-border projects, and mitigate the risk of "greenwashing". Fourth, improve the cross-border circulation infrastructure for the RMB, optimize connectivity mechanisms such as Bond Connect, expand the scope of investment targets, and strengthen the offshore RMB asset pool to achieve virtuous interaction between onshore and offshore markets. In summary, we believe that the development of the Panda Bond market is not a binary choice between "liberalization" and "restriction". Instead, it requires the establishment of a multi-tiered governance system that accommodates both global and local markets, underpinned by credit risk identification, supported by tiered management, and sustained by efficient cross-border circulation. While enhancing market openness and influence, risks arising from market expansion should be properly managed to promote high-quality development of the Panda Bond market in the future.