2003年-世界发展银行全球_Sri_Lanka_Electric_Power_Technology_Assessment_141页_963kb

Sri Lanka Electric Power Technology Assessment (SLEPTA) Summary

Core Content

This document provides an economic and financial assessment of various power generation technologies and fuel options for Sri Lanka, focusing on the transition from hydroelectric to thermal generation. It evaluates the long-term implications of different technologies and fuels, including coal, oil, LNG, and renewables, in the context of energy security, cost, and environmental impact.

Main Findings

• Technology and Fuel Options Evaluated:

  • Steam cycle plants: coal and imported heavy fuel oil
  • Diesels: residual oil, imported heavy fuel oil, diesel oil
  • Combustion turbines (combined and simple cycle): diesel oil, naphtha, LNG
  • Hydro: conventional and mini-hydro
  • Renewables: wind, dendro-thermal

• Economic Analysis:

  • Screening Curve Analysis:
    • The analysis shows that for baseload operation, coal is the least-cost option.
    • For cycling duty (load factors 20-50%), combined cycle plants using auto-diesel or naphtha are most economical.
    • For thermal peaking, open cycle combustion turbines using auto-diesel are least cost.
  • Fuel Price and Discount Rate Impact:
    • The economic viability of technologies is highly dependent on fuel prices and discount rates.
    • A 10% discount rate is used as the standard, but sensitivity analyses for 8%, 12%, and 14% are also provided.
    • At higher discount rates, the cost advantage of coal over oil-steam is reduced.
  • Capital Cost Uncertainty:
    • Capital cost is the most significant source of uncertainty.
    • Only oil-steam and diesel using residual oil are in the competitive range with coal for baseload duty.
  • LNG and Oil-Based Technologies:
    • LNG is the most expensive option but the most environmentally friendly.
    • Oil-steam cycle plants are more economically viable than coal in some scenarios, but they face challenges in meeting sulfur emission standards.
    • The cost of compliance with environmental standards (e.g., FGD, ESPs) is factored into the analysis.

• Financial Analysis:

  • The cost of capital significantly affects the financial viability of projects.
  • Private financing is more expensive than concessionary financing.
  • The impact of debt denomination and terms is also considered.
  • Fuel taxes and excise duties have a smaller impact than the financing assumptions.

• Power Systems Planning:

  • The study includes a screening curve analysis and sensitivity analysis to evaluate the long-term cost implications.
  • A power systems planning model is used to compare the results of one-on-one technology comparisons with the CEB Generation Expansion Plan.
  • The analysis highlights the importance of considering the cost of delay in decision-making.

Key Recommendations

• Capital Cost Consistency:

  • Future analyses should adopt more consistent assumptions, particularly regarding capital costs and fuel prices.
  • The current study includes a detailed screening curve analysis and switching values for different technologies.

• Technology Selection:

  • For baseload duty, steam cycle (coal or oil) is the least-cost option.
  • For cycling duty, combined cycle plants using auto-diesel or naphtha are more cost-effective.
  • For thermal peaking, open cycle combustion turbines using auto-diesel are preferred.

• Environmental Considerations:

  • While oil avoids particulate and solid waste pollution from coal, it has higher sulfur emissions.
  • LNG is the most environmentally friendly but also the most expensive.
  • Environmental compliance costs (e.g., FGD) must be considered in the cost analysis.

• Institutional and Financial Factors:

  • The shift from concessionary to private financing has significant implications for the cost of power.
  • Private financing options are generally more expensive, which may affect the feasibility of certain technologies.

Conclusion

• The study emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and consistent economic and financial analysis in selecting power generation technologies.
• It highlights the importance of considering the long-term implications of technology choices, particularly in relation to fuel prices, discount rates, and environmental compliance.
• The analysis suggests that while coal is currently the most economically viable option for baseload generation, the choice of technology must be made with careful consideration of the trade-offs between cost, environmental impact, and long-term sustainability.