20210601-拉丁美洲经济委员会-Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean_exports_to_the_United_States_Analysis_of_the_competition_with_China_and_other_regions_at_product_level,_2002-2018_46页_1mb

Summary of Latin America and the Caribbean Exports to the United States: Analysis of the Competition with China and Other Regions at Product Level, 2002-2018

Core Content

This study analyzes the export dynamics of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to the United States over the period 2002-2018, comparing them with China and other regions. The research is based on product-level United States import data from the U.S. Census Bureau, covering over 30,000 products per year for nearly 200 countries. The goal is to understand how LAC countries have fared in the U.S. market in the context of China's growing influence since its WTO accession in 2001.

Main Findings

1. Market Share Trends

• Latin America and the Caribbean: The region's overall market share in the U.S. import market increased only slightly from 17.5% in 2002 to 18.6% in 2018, with an annual growth rate of 0.4%, significantly lower than the 1.8% observed in the previous four decades.
• Mexico: The only LAC country that significantly increased its market share, gaining 17 percentage points. Other countries like Peru, Chile, and Colombia also saw modest gains.
• Asia: Asia's market share grew rapidly, increasing from 22% in 2002 to 33% in 2018, with an annual growth rate of 2.6%. China's market share increased from 9% to 20% over the same period.
• OECD: The OECD remained the dominant exporter to the U.S., with a market share of 44.7% in 2018, down from 56.7% in 2002.
• Geographical Diversification: The U.S. import market became more geographically diversified, with Asia and LAC countries gaining ground, while Africa and the Caribbean saw market share declines.

2. Product Penetration

• Product penetration refers to the share of products exported to the U.S. in relation to all possible products in a given industry.
• LAC countries showed limited product penetration growth, with only a few industries seeing increases.
• China and Asia demonstrated substantial growth in product penetration, especially in manufacturing and machinery.
• The U.S. import market saw an overall expansion in product diversity, with the number of traded products increasing in most industries, except machinery.

3. Export Product Similarity

• The Export Similarity Index (ESI) is used to compare the similarity between LAC and China's export structures to the U.S.
• LAC exports are not very similar to China's, indicating limited direct competition.
• Mexico and some Central American countries showed a higher degree of similarity with China, particularly in machinery and manufactured goods.
• China's export structure is more similar to other Asian countries than to LAC countries, except for Mexico.

4. Export Price and Quality Segments

• Unit Value Analysis: OECD products have the highest unit values, followed by Asian products, and then LAC products.
• In 2002, LAC's average unit value was 1.5 times higher than Asia's, but by 2018, this trend reversed, with Asian products having a 1.5 times higher unit value than LAC's.
• China's products had significantly lower unit values than those of other Asian countries, contradicting the hypothesis that higher-income countries export higher unit value goods.
• LAC countries specialize in high-value segments more than China, suggesting a different competitive position in the U.S. market.

Key Information

• Data Source: United States Census Bureau, using 10-digit product classifications (HST10).
• Time Frame: 2002-2018, with 2002 as the baseline year following China's WTO accession.
• Methodology: The study uses the ESI to assess export structure similarity and unit values to evaluate price competitiveness.
• Regions Analyzed: Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America, Europe, and OECD.
• Key Industries: Food, beverages, crude materials, mineral fuels, chemicals, manufactured materials, machinery, and miscellaneous manufacturing.
• Conclusion: While China has significantly increased its market share and product penetration in the U.S. market, LAC countries, particularly Mexico, have shown some resilience. However, the region as a whole has not kept pace with China's rise, and LAC exports are not very similar to China's, suggesting that the competition is not as direct as previously thought.

Conclusion

The research highlights the increasing dominance of Asia and the OECD in the U.S. import market, with China emerging as a major player. LAC countries, despite some success in niche industries, have not managed to compete effectively with China in most product categories. The analysis underscores the need for LAC countries to focus on improving their export diversification, specialization, and competitiveness in terms of product quality and pricing to maintain their position in the U.S. market.