2025-05-15-Jefferies-格兰杰公司（GRI）_2025年上半年在房地产投资信托基金（REIT）转换和租金主导收益之前交易利润下滑_9页_352kb

Summary of Grainger Plc Equity Research Report (May 15, 2025)

Key Ratings and Analyst Information

• Buy Rating with a 12-month price target of 280p, a 31% increase from the trailing price of 213.50p.
• Analysts: Sarim Chaudhry and Mike Prew.
• Trading day prior price: 213.50p.

Financial Highlights

• Trading profits tail off ahead of REIT conversion, but NRI (Net Rental Income) grew 15% year-on-year to £61.3m from strong rental growth.
• Rental growth at 4.4%, driven by new lets and renewals, but trading profits expected to decline due to slowdown in sales of trading properties.
• EPS forecast revision to negative for FY25, offset by REIT conversion benefits.

Portfolio Performance

• Strong NTA (Net Tangible Assets) valuation increase of 1%, with BTR portfolio outperforming.
• Occupancy at 96%, predominantly targeting 22–44-year-olds, supporting recurring cashflow.
• Diversification efforts into sustainable areas (e.g., energy efficiency), with EPC retrofitting costs projected to be minimal in context.

REIT Conversion and Strategy

• Targeted conversion to REIT status by October 2025, expected to increase total returns by 50bps and deliver early-year tax savings of c. £15m.
• REIT model enhances earnings through operational efficiencies, with EPRA earnings growth targeted up to 50% by FY29.

Risk Assessment

• Principal risks include slower development deliveries, interest rate uncertainty, and housing market shifts depressing affordability and rentals.

Outlook and Valuation

• CEO emphasizes strong structural tailwinds in the sector, with focus on operational recovery and portfolio stability.
• Valuation based on DCF model, with a current discount to NAV and recommended buy position despite near-term profit headwinds.

Potential Catalysts

• Successful REIT conversion tax benefits, operational improvements, and capital growth in BTR segment.