欧洲安全研究所-阿拉伯气候未来-风险与准备（英）-2021.11-80页_7mb

Summary of ARAB CLIMATE FUTURES: Of risk and readiness

Core Content

ARAB CLIMATE FUTURES is a report by the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), authored by Florence Gaub and Clémentine Lienard. It examines the impact of climate change on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, highlighting the risks and the region's preparedness.

The report underscores that despite the MENA region contributing only 3% of global CO₂ emissions since 1850, it will be among the most affected by climate change. Even if emissions are reduced in line with the Paris Agreement, the region is expected to see a temperature increase of around 2°C by 2039, with potential peaks of 2.5°C in summer and autumn. These changes will exacerbate existing challenges, particularly water scarcity, which is already a critical issue in the Arab world.

Main Points

• Water Scarcity: Water is the first victim of climate change in the region. The Arab world is already water-stressed, with 13 of the world's 20 most water-stressed countries located here. Climate change will further reduce water availability, which in turn will impact agriculture, food production, and overall human welfare.

• Climate Change and Disasters: The region is projected to face more frequent and severe weather events, including floods, landslides, and rising sea levels. These will increase the risk of displacement, food insecurity, and economic strain.

• Population and Urbanisation: With growing populations and urbanisation, the region's vulnerability to climate impacts is heightened. Cities are not climate-proof, and the lack of resilient infrastructure and public transport systems makes them particularly susceptible to climate-related disruptions.

• Economic and Energy Impacts: The region is highly dependent on food imports, and climate change will reduce agricultural output. Energy exports, particularly to Europe, will also be affected as the global shift towards renewable energy continues. This will force energy-exporting states to adapt their economic models.

• Climate Awareness and Policy: While some progress has been made in raising awareness among citizens and governments, climate change remains a lower priority compared to economic and security concerns. This is partly due to the abstract and distant nature of its impacts, which make it less urgent in the short term.

Key Information

• Climate Scenarios: The report outlines four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to project climate change impacts:

  • RCP 2.6 (Best Case): Temperature increase of 1°C by 2100.
  • RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 (Not Enough): Temperature increase between 1.8°C and 2.2°C by the end of the century.
  • RCP 8.5 (Worst Case): Temperature increase of more than 3.5°C by the end of the century, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent.

• Regional Variability: The effects of climate change will not be uniform across the region. Countries like Algeria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia are expected to experience more significant temperature increases (up to 2.7°C), while others like Bahrain may see smaller increases. Water availability will also vary, with some countries experiencing a 13% decrease and others a 5% increase.

• Policy and Geopolitical Implications: Climate change is not just an environmental issue but also has significant economic, security, and geopolitical implications. The European Union has acknowledged these risks and has taken steps to integrate climate considerations into its security and defense strategies. However, the region's response has been slow, and countries experiencing conflict are at the highest risk.

• Risk Index: The report introduces a comprehensive climate change risk index, which assesses vulnerability, preparedness, and mitigation potential by country. The index highlights that states in conflict (Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen) are the most vulnerable to both direct and indirect effects of climate change.

Conclusion

The report concludes that climate change is a complex and multifaceted challenge that requires urgent and coordinated action. While the region is not the largest emitter of CO₂, it is among the most vulnerable to its effects. The report calls for increased institutional and citizen awareness, better management of water resources, and a shift towards renewable energy to mitigate the risks. It also stresses the strategic importance of Europe in supporting the Arab world in addressing climate change, given the potential for increased migration, conflict, and geopolitical exploitation.

Annex and Abbreviations

The report includes an annex detailing the indicators used for the Risk Index and their sources. It also provides a list of abbreviations for clarity and reference.