2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kiribati_Staff_Report_for_the_2014_Article_IV_Consultation_57页_1mb

KIRIBATI: 2014 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION SUMMARY

Core Content

The 2014 Article IV consultation with Kiribati, conducted by the IMF, focused on addressing key economic challenges such as reducing structural fiscal imbalances, improving growth and employment opportunities, and enhancing fiscal sustainability. The consultation included a Staff Report, a Debt Sustainability Analysis, a Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director. The reports highlighted the role of fishing license fees, the impact of climate change, and the importance of structural reforms in improving the economic outlook.

Main Recommendations

• Continue fiscal reforms to achieve fiscal consolidation and improve public financial management.
• Maintain high fishing license fees and save windfall revenues to strengthen the Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund (RERF).
• Proceed with reforms of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to reduce fiscal risks and improve efficiency.
• Improve the business climate and infrastructure to foster private sector growth and investment.
• Enhance access to finance for viable business projects while maintaining financial risk management.
• Strengthen the management of the RERF and the Kiribati Pension Fund (KPF).
• Promote temporary migration programs for low-skill labor to reduce unemployment and increase remittances.
• Encourage joint ventures in marine resource development and address funding access issues for local fishermen.
• Facilitate the transition of graduates into modified regional seasonal worker schemes to boost employment and economic growth.

Key Issues

• Fiscal Challenges: Kiribati faces significant fiscal imbalances due to its reliance on fishing license fees, official transfers, and remittances. The country's narrow economic base and vulnerability to external shocks and climate change exacerbate these challenges.
• Structural Constraints: The small and remote nature of Kiribati, combined with a weak business climate, limits private sector growth and strains public finances.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The RERF has been significantly eroded by years of large fiscal deficits, and its real per capita value is now much lower than in 2000.
• Private Sector Role: The private sector remains limited in scope and is concentrated in import distribution, public sector support, fishery-related activities, and niche tourism.
• Climate Change and Natural Disasters: These pose long-term risks to growth and fiscal stability, especially given the country's limited infrastructure and administrative capacity.

Fiscal Policy

• The government has made progress in improving public financial management, including reducing exposure to SOE guarantees and incorporating subsidies into the budget.
• The introduction of VAT on April 1, 2014, is expected to face initial implementation challenges, but could improve tax compliance and revenue collection.
• The report outlines two main fiscal scenarios:
  • Baseline Scenario: Assumes conservative fishing license fees and a fiscal consolidation of more than 10% of GDP by 2019.
  • High Fishing License Fees Scenario: Assumes continued high revenues, which would reduce the need for fiscal adjustment but still require careful management of RERF balances.
• The RERF per capita value is projected to remain below 2000 levels unless further fiscal adjustments are made.

State-Owned Enterprises Reforms

• The government has implemented extensive SOE reforms, including the closure of underperforming enterprises and the introduction of a new SOE Act.
• These reforms aim to reduce fiscal risks and improve operational efficiency.
• The authorities recognize that some SOEs may continue to operate at a loss due to their social mandates, such as serving outer islands.

Private Sector Growth Opportunities

• The private sector is constrained by remoteness, limited market size, and high transport costs.
• Infrastructure development and improved connectivity are seen as key to enhancing private sector activity.
• The government is advised to streamline business permits and reduce bureaucratic red tape to improve the business environment.

Risk Assessment

• Near-term risks to growth are balanced, but external shocks and volatile commodity prices could pose challenges.
• Long-term risks include climate change and natural disasters, which threaten both growth and fiscal stability.
• The country remains at high risk of external debt distress due to large infrastructure financing needs.

Supporting Boxes

Box 1: Seamen Employment and Remittances

• Seamen employment and remittances have declined in recent years, with about 1008 seamen employed in 2013 compared to 1452 in 2006.
• Remittances fell to 6% of GDP in 2013, partly due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and higher transport costs.
• The shipping industry remains unprofitable and automated, reducing demand for seamen.

Box 2: Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability

• The baseline scenario projects a reduction in the current fiscal deficit from 22.3% of GDP in 2014 to 11.8% in 2019.
• The RERF drawdown is expected to decrease from 14.5% of GDP to 11.8% of GDP.
• To stabilize RERF per capita value by 2023–24, the current fiscal deficit must be narrowed to 3.8% of GDP on average.
• Under the high fishing license fees scenario, the RERF per capita value could stabilize at A$4,500, with a smaller fiscal adjustment needed.

Box 3: Linkages Between the Government Sector and Growth and Fiscal Multipliers

• Government spending accounts for a large share of GDP (60% in 2013), and the government sector contributes over 28%.
• Fiscal multipliers in Kiribati are relatively low (0.44–0.47), due to high import dependency and limited domestic industry development.
• The framework allows for projecting GDP growth, with estimates of 3.0% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015.

Box 4: Regional Arrangement for Fishing License Fees

• Fishing license fees are a major revenue source for Pacific Island Countries (PICs), including Kiribati.
• The Parties to the Nauru Agreement (PNA) have implemented a vessel day scheme (VDS) to coordinate fishing activities and increase bargaining power.
• Minimum fees for fishing per vessel day were set at US$5,000 in 2012 and increased to US$6,000 in 2014.
• The PNA members jointly allocate transferable fishing days based on EEZ size and historical catch.

Conclusion

The 2014 Article IV consultation emphasized the need for continued fiscal and structural reforms, particularly in public financial management, SOE efficiency, and private sector development. While fishing license fees have provided a temporary fiscal buffer, their volatility remains a risk. The government is encouraged to maintain high fees, save windfalls, and implement further reforms to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and growth. Climate change and external shocks are identified as ongoing threats, requiring proactive measures to safeguard economic stability.