战略与国际研究中心-Improving-the-US_56页_2mb

Summary of "Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership" by Anthony H. Cordesman

Core Content

This document, prepared by Anthony H. Cordesman for the ACRPS Conference on Arab-U.S. Relations, analyzes the current military balance in the Gulf and proposes ways to improve the security partnership between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. It highlights the evolving security threats, the need for better coordination and integration among GCC states, and the role of US, French, and British allies in supporting the region's defense.

Main Security Threats and Military Balances

The Gulf region faces a complex mix of security threats, including:

• Internal stability: Each GCC state must address internal tensions, economic disparities, demographic pressures, and social issues, which compete with military resources.
• Violent Islamist and extremist groups: GCC states are primarily responsible for counterterrorism, but intelligence cooperation and joint training are essential.
• Iran's influence: Iran has been increasing its role in the region, particularly in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, through covert operations and support for Shi'ite movements. It has also been developing asymmetric capabilities to threaten Gulf shipping and petroleum exports.
• Iran's military build-up: Iran has developed a significant arsenal of ballistic missiles and artillery rockets that can reach GCC states. It is also pursuing the development of cruise missiles and UCAVs, which could increase the lethality of its attacks.
• Iran's nuclear ambitions: Iran is suspected of developing nuclear warheads, which would significantly increase the threat to GCC and US interests.

The document argues that the GCC has a clear military advantage over Iran in most categories, particularly in air and land forces, but this advantage is undermined by a lack of integration, interoperability, and coordinated planning.

Current Military Balance in the Gulf

The GCC states, supported by the US, Britain, and France, have a strong military position relative to Iran. Key findings include:

• Land Forces: The GCC has a significant lead in modern armored vehicles and combat effectiveness. However, internal coordination and training are lacking.
• Artillery: Iran has a large number of artillery systems, but many are outdated. The GCC has a better balance of modern and self-propelled systems.
• Naval Forces: The GCC has more modern combat ships, but readiness and sustainability are issues. Iran has a smaller navy but is building asymmetric capabilities like anti-ship missiles and submersibles.
• Air Forces: The GCC has a strong lead in modern combat aircraft, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Iran's fleet is largely outdated and lacks effective maintenance and upgrades.
• Air Defense: The GCC has superior air defense systems, including modern missile launchers and radar capabilities. Iran's air defense is outdated and lacks integration, making it vulnerable to countermeasures.

US Strategic Priorities and Commitment

The US has a strong commitment to the Gulf, especially in light of the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review and the FY2015 budget. The document emphasizes that the US must continue to support the GCC in the following areas:

• Force modernization: The US provides critical support in modernizing GCC forces, particularly in air and naval capabilities.
• Interoperability: The US, along with other allies, can help improve the interoperability of GCC forces through joint operations and training.
• Integrated command and control: The GCC needs to develop integrated and interoperable command and control systems to enhance mission effectiveness.
• Joint intelligence and training: The GCC should focus on creating a joint intelligence center and improving training facilities and standards to ensure effective coordination in real-world missions.

Recommendations for Strengthening the Alliance

To improve the US-GCC security partnership, the following recommendations are proposed:

• Improve coordination: Establish a joint coordination mechanism to enhance military cooperation and planning.
• Create common training and exercise capacity: Develop a GCC-wide training infrastructure and standards to ensure better readiness and joint operations.
• Develop a joint intelligence center: Enhance intelligence sharing and coordination among GCC states and their allies.
• Build a technology and procurement directorate: Coordinate the acquisition and development of military technology to ensure compatibility and efficiency.
• Establish a logistics and sustainability directorate: Improve the logistics and readiness of GCC forces to support sustained operations.
• Improve force planning: Conduct a GCC-wide force planning exercise to align national capabilities with common security objectives.
• Address internal divisions: Work to reduce internal tensions within the GCC to enhance collective defense capabilities.
• Enhance arms control efforts: Create a working group to manage arms transfers and ensure responsible use of military assets.

Conclusion

The document concludes that while the GCC has a significant military advantage over Iran, this advantage is not fully realized due to internal divisions and a lack of coordination. A stronger US-GCC alliance, based on improved interoperability, integrated command and control, and common training and intelligence efforts, is essential for addressing the evolving security threats in the region. The US, along with other allies, has a vital role to play in supporting this transformation, but the GCC must take the lead in developing a more unified and effective defense posture.