2025-02-09-世界银行-日益脆弱_十年来欧洲中产阶级发生了什么_（英）_38页_1mb

Growing Vulnerability: Europe's Middle Class Over a Decade

Summary

This paper examines the vulnerability-based definition of the middle class, exploring whether its size or composition changed in Europe between 2005–08 and 2015–18. The focus is on two aspects: first, the increase in the income needed to be almost immune from poverty risk (vulnerability threshold), and second, how the composition of middle-class households has evolved.

Key findings indicate that, on average, the vulnerability threshold rose by about 10% in real terms between these two periods. This means that households needed higher incomes to maintain low poverty vulnerability. Across countries, the 10% average rise masks significant differences: some nations saw thresholds increase by over 20%, while others recorded declines.

The composition of the middle class shifted noticeably. More middle-class households had tertiary-educated heads and those employed in managerial or professional roles. By contrast, households with lower education levels or elementary occupations saw fewer opportunities to qualify as middle class. These changes reflect polarization driven by technology, demography, and globalization trends.

The stability of the middle-class size at ~28% hides substantial heterogeneity. Countries experiencing sharp increases in the vulnerability threshold witnessed substantial reductions in the middle class—by about eight percentage points. These improvements point to policies enhancing economic security through education and workforce development.

The rising threshold and widening vulnerability gap reinforce that maintaining or aspiring to middle-class status has become more challenging for many households in Europe. Understanding this shift becomes crucial for policies aimed at fostering economic resilience and inclusive growth.