2024-06-10-世界经济论坛-首席经济学家展望_2024年5月（英）_32页_2mb

Chief Economists Outlook Summary - May 2024

Core Content

The May 2024 Chief Economists Outlook provides a comprehensive assessment of the current and future state of the global economy, based on surveys and consultations with leading chief economists from both public and private sectors. The report highlights a mood of cautious optimism despite ongoing uncertainties and challenges.

Main Points

1. Cautious Optimism in the Global Economy

• Global Growth Outlook: The global economy is expected to improve, with a sharp decline in the percentage of chief economists anticipating weakening conditions (from 56% in January to 17% in April).
• Regional Variations:
  • United States: The most optimistic region, with 97% of respondents expecting moderate or stronger growth in 2024.
  • Asia: All respondents expect moderate or stronger growth, with notable improvements in South Asia (up to 70% expecting strong or very strong growth) and East Asia and Pacific.
  • China: An exception in Asia, with only 4% of respondents expecting strong growth due to weak consumption and property market concerns.
  • Europe: Continues to have weak growth expectations (about 70% of respondents still foresee weak growth).
  • Other Regions: Broadly moderate growth is expected, with slight improvements in Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean.

2. Inflation Trends

• Global Inflation: Projected to settle at 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, down from 6.8% in 2023.
• Regional Inflation Expectations:
  • United States: 66% expect moderate inflation, with 22% expecting high inflation.
  • Europe: 57% expect moderate inflation, 25% expect low inflation.
  • China: 81% expect low or very low inflation, with 35% expecting very low inflation.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: 32% expect high inflation, with the majority still expecting moderate inflation.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: 48% expect high or very high inflation, 43% expect moderate inflation.
  • East Asia and Pacific, Central Asia: Expectations for low inflation have increased significantly.

Key Challenges

1. Complexity and Volatility

• Heightened Complexity: 79% of chief economists see complexity as a growing challenge for decision-makers.
• Political-Economic Tensions: 86% of respondents believe tensions between political and economic considerations will be a growing challenge.
• Data-Sentiment Divergence: About 40% of chief economists expect this divergence to be a challenge, with similar proportions uncertain about its implications.

2. Business Headwinds

• Supply Chain Adjustments: Businesses are adjusting their strategies, including localization and diversification into new geographies.
• Internal Efficiency: Improving efficiency and shifting to leaner business models are key strategies.
• Innovation and Human Capital: Investing in innovation and human capital is seen as a way to unlock productivity growth.
• Capital Allocation: Greater caution in capital allocation is expected.

Policy Responses

1. Monetary Policy

• Less Synchronization: Monetary policy is expected to become less synchronized across regions.
• Europe: 86% of respondents expect looser monetary policy.
• China and the US: Expectations are slightly lower, with 67% and 61% respectively expecting loosening, while around a third in both regions expect unchanged policies.
• Central Banks: The Federal Reserve and ECB are cautious in their communication, signaling potential for future rate cuts.

2. Fiscal Policy

• Policy Continuity: Most regions are expected to maintain their current fiscal stance.
• Developing Economies: Face higher debt servicing costs, with an increase of 10% in developing economies and nearly 40% in low-income economies in 2023-2024.
• China: 66% of respondents expect fiscal loosening by year-end, aligned with government stimulus efforts.
• Europe: 32% expect fiscal tightening, 21% expect loosening, and 46% expect unchanged policies.

Long-Term Prospects

1. Growth Drivers

• Short-Term: Chief economists expect technological transformation, AI, and the green and energy transition to be key growth drivers in high-income economies.
• Long-Term: Growth is expected to rebound, with 70% of respondents anticipating a return to 4% growth within five years, and 42% within three years.
• Challenges:
  • Geopolitical and Domestic Political Factors: Expected to negatively impact growth in both high- and low-income economies.
  • Debt Levels and Climate Change: Also seen as growth inhibitors.
  • Total Factor Productivity: A worrying decline is identified as a barrier to growth acceleration.

2. Policy Effectiveness

• Innovation and Infrastructure: Seen as the most promising growth drivers across all regions.
• Education and Skills: Also highlighted as key for long-term growth.
• Monetary Policy: Expected to be more effective in Europe than in other regions.
• Disagreement: Notable lack of consensus on the impact of environmental policy and industrial policy.

Key Takeaways

• The global economy is showing signs of stabilization, but geopolitical and domestic political factors remain major sources of volatility.
• Technological advances, particularly AI, are viewed as growth drivers, not volatility sources.
• Supply chain complexity and regulatory uncertainty are key challenges for businesses.
• Fiscal and monetary policy are expected to remain largely unchanged in most regions, with China and Europe being exceptions.
• Long-term growth is seen as achievable, but structural challenges such as productivity and debt levels pose significant hurdles.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex and uncertain nature of the global economic environment. While there is cautious optimism about recovery and growth, geopolitical tensions, domestic political instability, and economic volatility continue to shape the outlook. Policy responses are expected to be tailored to regional needs, with a focus on innovation, infrastructure, and education as key levers for long-term growth.