2015年-世界发展银行全球_Connectivity_for_Caribbean_Countries___An_Initial_Assessment_100页_3mb

Connectivity for Caribbean Countries: An Initial Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report provides an initial assessment of air and maritime connectivity in the Caribbean region, focusing on 15 countries that account for 64% of the region's population and 59% of its GDP. It highlights the challenges and opportunities for improving connectivity in the context of small island economies, high vulnerability to natural disasters, and the need for regional cooperation and integration.

Main Points

1. Geographic and Economic Characteristics

• The Caribbean region is defined by its geographic location, with many countries being "sea-locked," which makes connectivity a critical challenge.
• The region is characterized by:
  • Small economies
  • High vulnerability to natural disasters
  • A need for regional cooperation and integration
• The Caribbean is also a region of islands with limited land area, which affects infrastructure development and economic resilience.

2. Logistics Challenges

• High Logistics Costs: The most salient issue is the high cost of trade, driven by inefficiencies in customs systems and document preparation.
• Customs System Inefficiencies:
  • Customs and excise taxes account for an average of 35% of GDP in the Caribbean, compared to less than 4% in developed countries.
  • Customs primarily serve as a revenue source rather than facilitating trade, leading to inefficiencies and increased costs for traders.
• Cost Premium for Infrastructure: The need to build climate-resilient infrastructure adds to the unit cost of investment, further increasing the burden on small economies.

3. Air Connectivity

• Fragmented Network: Air transport in the Caribbean is dominated by competition for international tourists rather than regional coordination.
• High Proportion of Extra-Regional Flights: 82% of air traffic involves direct flights to non-Caribbean international destinations.
• Suboptimal Routing: Many routes are unsustainable due to low load factors and distorted subsidy schemes (Minimum Revenue Guarantee, MRG).
• Need for Route Consolidation: A hub-and-spoke model with a single hub could reduce the number of non-sustainable intercontinental flights and improve efficiency.
• Weak Intra-Regional Connectivity:
  • Domestic and regional air traffic is minimal, with some countries having less than 150,000 aggregate seat capacity.
  • Intra-Regional air traffic is shrinking and often not viable due to low demand and high costs.
• Opportunities for Private Sector Services: There is potential for developing alternative services such as inter-island ferries and low-cost air shuttles.

4. Maritime Connectivity

• Freight Connectivity: The maritime network is well-structured around two hub-and-spoke systems:
  • Intra-regional hub in Trinidad
  • Extra-regional hub in the Miami area
• High Freight Tariffs: Despite the efficient structure, freight tariffs are high by global standards.
• Market Concentration: High tariffs are likely due to the dominance of a few shipping liners, resulting in low competition.
• Correlation with Market Concentration: There is a positive correlation (0.6) between market concentration (measured by Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) and freight tariffs.

5. Tourism as a Key Economic Sector

• Tourism is a vital economic pillar in the Caribbean, contributing up to 12% of all jobs and 14% of the region's GDP.
• In 2011, the sector contributed about US$50 billion to the region's economy.
• Tourism is a major source of foreign exchange and has indirect and induced effects on the economy, including capital investment, service industries, and multiplier effects.
• However, the tourism industry is highly dependent on international tourists and is vulnerable to high costs of fuel and food, which affect competitiveness.

6. Regional Integration and Coordination

• Regional coordination is essential for improving connectivity and promoting sustainable growth.
• Key areas for regional cooperation include:
  • Coordinated investment in air transport infrastructure
  • Regional negotiation of tourism agreements to increase bargaining power
  • Integrated customs and immigration systems
  • Unified policies for air and ferry services to increase load factors
• Despite progress in economic unions and agreements, convincing countries to coordinate investment and market decisions remains a challenge.

Key Information

• Logistics Costs: Customs and document handling account for 48% of import costs in the Caribbean, much higher than in Singapore (34%).
• Air Traffic Trends:
  • 82% of air traffic is extra-regional.
  • Intra-regional and domestic air traffic is minimal and often unsustainable.
• Maritime Freight:
  • Two hub-and-spoke systems effectively serve the region.
  • High freight tariffs are linked to market concentration.
• Economic Indicators (Table 1):
  • Most Caribbean countries have high debt-to-GDP ratios and current account deficits.
  • Tourism accounts for a significant portion of GDP (24% to 74%).
  • The sector is a major foreign exchange earner and contributes to job creation and economic growth.

Conclusion

The report underscores the critical role of connectivity in the development of Caribbean countries, emphasizing the need for improved logistics, regional coordination, and the development of alternative transport services. It calls for a shift from fragmented, competitive models to integrated, efficient systems that can support sustainable economic growth and reduce costs for both trade and tourism.