美国财政部-美国主要贸易伙伴宏观经济和外汇政策报告（英）-2023.11-47页_823kb

Executive Summary

Global economic growth in both 2022 and 2023 has surpassed initial expectations, with the IMF forecasting a slight increase for 2023 to 2.9% and further recovery to 3.2% in 2024 under a Q4/Q4 basis. Continued stabilization in price volatility, supply chain, and domestic demand supported this growth, though risks such as geopolitical tensions, high core inflation, and potential stresses in China's property sector persist. The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to 3.3% of GDP in the four quarters through June 2023.

Currency fluctuations were influenced by diverging monetary policies and economic fundamentals, with the broad dollar strengthening against several major currencies, particularly the yen and renminbi, and weakening modestly against emerging markets. Countries like China, Germany, and Singapore maintain large current account surpluses. The Treasury concluded that no trading partner met the criteria for currency manipulation for unfair competitive advantage or preventing effective balance of payments adjustments, as defined by the 1988 and 2015 Acts. Despite resilient short-term performance, elevated uncertainties persist, emphasizing the need for sustained policy efforts to foster external rebalancing.

Key Findings Summary

• Legal Framework: Treasury evaluates currency manipulation under two statutes, the 1988 Act and the 2015 Act. The 1988 Act focuses on preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or unfair competitive advantage, while the 2015 Act assesses three specific criteria for enhanced analysis of major trading partners.

• Current Review Period (Through June 2023): No trading partner met all three criteria under the 2015 Act, which include a significant bilateral trade surplus ($15B threshold in goods and services), a material current account surplus (at least 3% of GDP or a substantial gap as estimated by Treasury’s GERAF framework), and persistent, one-sided intervention (meeting a specific quantitative threshold). The Monitoring List remains with six economies: China, Germany, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Korea and Switzerland were removed from the list.

• Currency Manipulation Determination: Based on a comprehensive review of factors beyond the 2015 criteria—including currency developments, exchange rate practices, foreign exchange reserves, and monetary policy—Treasury again finds no manipulation under the 1988 Act during the relevant period.

USD Exchange Rate Trends

Recent Performance (Through End of September 2023):

• The broad USD index saw fluctuations, with a relatively stable level in the first half but an 11% appreciation against the yen in the past few months, pushing it to near 150 yen per dollar.
• Against a basket of advanced economies' currencies, the USD increased by 1.9%, while in emerging markets, the USD declined by 0.4%.
• In 2023, the USD appreciated significantly against emerging market currencies, with France seeing a 9% depreciation against the basket, but it weakened by about 2.4% from June to September.

Factors Influencing Trends:

Monetary policy divergence, core inflation, supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical tensions, and safe haven buying/avoidance played key roles. Though there have been steady appreciations throughout 2023, the non-manipulation determination is based on a holistic assessment including intervention proxies and exchange rate dynamics.

Methodologies for Currency Data Collection

Treasury uses diverse sources including balance of payments data, official statements, and derivative calculations from foreign exchange reserves. Limited transparency from some trading partners requires proxy measurements. Recommendations emphasize improving currency intervention reporting and fostering inclusive growth through reforms and domestic demand enhancement.