2025-06-04-Jefferies-帕拉贡银行集团（PAG）_另一组稳健的数据_9页_247kb

Equity Research Summary: Paragon Banking Group

Rating and Price Target

• Jefferies rates Paragon Banking Group (PAG LN) HOLD.
• 12-month price target revised from 815p to 930p, reflecting a +3% change.

Key Highlights

• Paragon beat market expectations in H1 2025 with a 7% pre-provision profit margin, exceeding Visible Alpha consensus.
• Despite a 1 bps sequential drop in NIM due to SONIA effects, performance was strong amid falling rates.
• Volume growth expectations: Commercial loans held steady, but undrawn facilities increased by 12%, supporting fee income.
• EPS forecast: Up 4-7% through 2027, driven by higher income and share reduction from buybacks.

Financial Outlook

• Margin pressure anticipated in H2 2025 due to base rate cuts and deposit beta dynamics.
• Full-year 2025 margin guidance revised to 3.09%, a 9 bps improvement from initial expectations.
• Revenue growth: 2-4% annual increase expected through 2026-2027.

Valuation & Metrics

• Trading at 9.1x FY 2025E P/E, below 2024 levels but justifying a 10% TSR potential.
• Tangible net asset value (TNAV) of 706p in 2026, with a 9% total yield.
• Return on tangible equity (ROTE) projected at 16.0% post-2027.

Risks and Catalysts

• Downside Risks: CET1 capital position, BTL market volatility, regulatory fines, conduct costs (e.g., motor finance).
• Upside Catalysts: Improved BTL margins, lower impairments, IRB accreditation, operational efficiencies.
• Positive catalysts include a FY results announcement on 29th July 2025 and potential Supreme Court rulings impacting ESG factors.

Dividend and Buybacks

• Dividend yield expected at ~9% through 2027.
• Announced buyback program: £50m annually to reduce share count.