2025-06-11-花旗集团-Boot_Barn（BOOT）_Boot_Barn（BOOT.N）_因季度初表现强劲上调预期；同店销售额增长表明增长势头可持续_15页_602kb

Boot Barn (BOOT.N) Citigroup Research Summary

Business Momentum and Drivers

Citigroup analyzes Boot Barn's improved momentum post-earnings, attributing it to strong merchandise execution, particularly in work boots and fashion categories. Key drivers include better inventory management, as seen in denim sales, and incremental factors like work boots, which offer growth opportunities.

Financial Estimates and Forecast

• Raised F1Q 2025 EPS to $1.64 (previously $1.53) and SSS estimate to +10.2% for the quarter, exceeding Street expectations.
• Projects FY26 SSS growth of +6%, with potential upside from tariffs passed to consumers and consistent 2-year stack momentum, suggesting significant upside to current guidance.
• Reiterated "Buy" rating based on attractive unit growth story, margin expansion through exclusive brands, and strong runway for earnings.

Valuation and Investment Thesis

Target price of $180, supported by 25x FY27 EPS, reflecting accelerated SSS trends and earnings growth. The stock trades at a premium to its 5-year average, with a long-term EPS growth assumption of ~20%.

Risks

• Primary risks include slower SSS if consumer spending shifts post-reopening or macroeconomic pressures ease demand.
• Margin risks from inflation and potentially high pricing elasticity due to tariffs, which could disrupt unit sales.

Key Statistics

• Current price: $162.03; Market cap: $4,957M.
• Target price: $180.00; Expected share price return: 11.1%.