20231116-招银国际-GPM_pressure_persists_despite_possible_sales_beat_4页_836kb

CMB Equity Research Summary: Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US)

• Rating: HOLD (Maintain)
  • Target Price: US$16.00 (Up from previous US$14.00), reflecting fair valuation based on 2x revised FY24E P/S.
  • Current Price: US$17.00, implying a slight downside of -5.9%.
• Key Findings:
  • Sales Volume: Revised FY24E sales volume upward to 0.26mn units (up 20,000 units) due to new models and collaborations (e.g., with Didi).
  • Gross Profit Margin (GPM): Expected to remain low despite potential upside, as Q3 2023 miss indicates ongoing competition; limited margin improvement projected for Q4 23E and H1 24E.
  • Risk: Smart-EV brand image could be challenged by Huawei's autonomous driving (AD) technology, potentially eroding product positioning in premium market.
• Financial Projections:
  • Revenue: Raised FY24E revenue by 13% with higher volume, but net loss widened (from RMB-8.7bn to RMB-9.3bn); P/S multiple unchanged at 2x.
  • Earnings: Holds steady due to valuation, but risks include AD tech advancements by peers, sales/gross margin deviations, and sector re-rating.
• Supporting Data:
  • 12-month price performance indicates volatility; shareholder structure shows concentrated ownership (He Xiaopeng 19.7%, Taobao China 10.7%).
  • Financial metrics: Revenue grows at 69.2% for FY24E, but net margin remains negative and weakening.

Key Risks

• Persistent GPM pressure, competitive threats from Huawei, and uncertainties in AD technology advancements.