2025-06-10-Jefferies-凯西综合商店（CASY）_稳定的燃料利润率_两位数EBITDA增长_房地产投资信托基金（REIT）买入_9页_215kb

Equity Research Summary: Casey's General Stores (CASY)

Recommendation: Buy
Price Target: $439.29 (Current Price: $439.29, 31% Upside)
Market Cap: $16.4B

Analysis Highlights

Financial Performance

• Strong Q4 results: Revenue grew 11% YoY, beat expectations.
• Adj. EBITDA and EPS significantly beat consensus expectations. Q4 EBITDA margin expanded by 50 bps to 6.6%.
• Fuel margins in Q4 were 38.7 cents/gallon, exceeding expectations, while inside margins improved significantly.
• Guidance for FY'26 maintains solid expectations for SSS growth (Gallons ~0%, Inside 2-5%) and adj. EBITDA growth 10-12%.

Investment Thesis

• Positioned to leverage scale for improved in-store economics and unit growth.
• Ongoing initiatives to enhance the prepared food business (e.g., pilot chicken wings) are expected to drive sales and units.
• Unit growth opportunities and unit economics are key drivers.

Valuation

• Price target $575 (representing a 31% upside).
• Valuation multiple decreased from 17.4x EV/EBITDA to 15.5x, reflecting margin expansion. Future multiple expansion potential exists if unit growth accelerates and the Prepared Foods business strengthens.

Risks & Concerns

• Fuel Margin Volatility: Potential for price pressure affecting margins despite current strength.
• Fikes Integration: Complexity and execution risk associated with the recent acquisition.
• Increased competition in the prepared food segment by other operators or QSRs.

Looking Ahead

• Continued focus on driving stable fuel margins and sustainable same-store sales (SSS) and unit growth.
• Potential for further multiple expansion supported by unit growth execution and Prepared Foods development.
• Valuation scenarios are based on different assumptions around fuel margins and execution risk.

Catalysts

• Unit growth (organic and M&A).
• Progress in prepared food initiatives.
• Announcements of acquisitions.

This report summarizes key elements from the equity research on Casey's General Stores (CASY) dated June 10, 2025.