2022-10-17-国际清算银行-政策制定者的历史货币和金融统计_走向统一框架（英）_108页_928kb

Summary of "Historical Monetary and Financial Statistics for Policymakers"

• Background and Objectives: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) launched the Historical Monetary and Financial Statistics (HMFS) project in response to policymakers' growing need for long-run historical data. The project aims to create a unified framework for international comparison, addressing gaps in existing data, which were constructed through nationally focused efforts with varying methodologies.

• Key Drivers: The 2007–09 financial crisis highlighted the importance of understanding historical events. Interest rates, credit, and house prices serve as critical indicators, but their construction involves significant methodological challenges.

• Methodological Challenges:

  • Interest Rates: Issues of anachronism, illiquidity, embedded options, and data quality. Reliance on specific assets or indices can be misleading without proper context.
  • Credit Aggregates: Statistorians ("statisticians + historians") are essential for navigating regulatory idiosyncrasies. Coverage is limited due to historical and database issues, affecting comparability.
  • Historical House Prices: Are at risk of being non-directional and biased due to differing definitions and data availability. Hedonic and repeat-sales models provide better control for quality, but must be contextualized.

• Need for Collaboration: HMFS promotes partnership among central banks, academics, and statisticians. The creation of a knowledge infrastructure is vital for transparency and long-term data applicability.

• Call to Action: HMFS fosters future research to address "statistical dark matter" and improve understanding. The goal is to inform policymaking by bridging historical data gaps for better financial stability and macroeconomic insights.