2024-02-13-莱坊-Spain_Logistics_Snapshot_Q4_2023_2页_674kb

Logistics Snapshot Q4 2023 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the logistics market in Spain, focusing on the occupier and investment sectors in Madrid and Barcelona for the fourth quarter of 2023. It highlights the market dynamics, take-up trends, rental growth, and investment activity.

Occupier Market Overview

Madrid

• Logistic Take-up: In Q4 2023, the take-up was 169,000 sq m, down from 381,000 sq m in Q4 2022, representing a 15% decrease compared to the average take-up of the last 5 years.
• Market Uncertainty: The decrease was expected due to the overall uncertainty in the market, although the anticipated recession had a limited impact.
• Supply Side: Approximately 840,000 sq m of new construction was delivered to the market in 2023, a 15% increase compared to 2022.
• Availability Rate: The availability rate reached 7.3% by the end of December 2023, up from 6.5% in Q3 2023.
• Rental Growth: Rents remained stable with slight increases, driven by the arrival of new quality spaces and rising construction costs since early 2022.
• Submarket Performance: Submarkets like Illescas, San Fernando, and Torrejón experienced positive rental growth.

Barcelona

• Logistic Take-up: The take-up in Barcelona was approximately 540,000 sq m, a 20% decrease compared to the previous year.
• Pre-Pandemic Levels: This figure is in line with pre-pandemic years, indicating a return to more normal levels of activity.

Average Prime Rents by Rings

Investment Market Overview

• Q4 2023 Investment Volume: Around €440 million, compared to €250 million in Q4 2022.
• Annual Investment Volume: Nearly €1.5 billion, a 35% decrease from the previous year.
• Investor Behavior: The change in interest rate policies and market uncertainty led to a wait-and-see approach, limiting investment activity.
• Investment Distribution:
  • Secondary areas accounted for over 40% of the total investment.
  • Madrid and Barcelona each represented 30% and 25% respectively.
• Prime Yields:
  • Madrid: 5.40% (up from 5.25% in Q3 2023)
  • Barcelona: 5.25% (up from 5.15% in Q3 2023)

Top 3 Investment Deals Q4 2023

1. €150M | Figueres, Girona

   • Vendor: Eurofund & LCP
   • Purchaser: Amazon
   • Capital Value: 890 €/sq m

2. €107M | Tordera, Barcelona

   • Vendor: Kave Home
   • Purchaser: Aquila Capital
   • Capital Value: 1200 €/sq m

3. €40M | IS&L Fredigoni, Barcelona

   • Vendor: Fredigoni
   • Purchaser: WP Carey
   • Capital Value: 625 €/sq m

Key Transaction

• The German group Aquila Capital purchased a distribution center in Tordera from Kave Home for over €100 million.
• The asset is planned to be expanded to 90,000 sq m.
• Kave Home has secured a long-term lease and is using the freed-up resources to support the expansion of its corporate headquarters in Sils (Girona).

Outlook

• Investment Activity: Expected to increase from mid-2024 as bond yields are projected to decrease.
• Equilibrium Yield: This will provide information to calibrate the new 'equilibrium yield,' potentially unlocking several purchasing processes.

Europe Prime Yields | Q3 2023

Source: Knight Frank Research.