2025-05-15-Jefferies-Nextracker（NXT）_2025财年第四季度业绩超预期；连胜持续_涉足eBOS_14页_1mb

Summary

Company Background

Nextracker Inc. (NXT) is a provider of solar tracking and software solutions for utility-scale solar projects. The company operates primarily in the US, with exposure to international markets, and has expanded its presence globally.

Financial Performance

NXT reported a strong financial quarter with revenues of $924mn in Q4 2025, exceeding the top end of its FY2025 guidance by ~2%. The company guided for FY2026 topline of $3.2-3.4bn, with an estimated revenue of $3.35bn. EBITDA reached $779mn, above management's prior expectations, but margins declined due to higher operating costs. Balance sheet is healthy, with no debt outstanding.

Key Developments

NXT announced an all-cash acquisition of Bentek Corp. for $78mn to enter the eBOS (electrical balance of system) market. This acquisition is expected to minimize FY2026 contribution but could drive long-term growth. Non-tracker businesses are projected to account for ~1/3rd of revenue over five years, supporting diversification efforts.

Valuation and Recommendation

Jefferies maintained a BUY rating and raised the price target to $63, reflecting blended DCF, EV/EBITDA, and P/E valuations, with ~14% upside. The company's strong execution and expansion potential justify the valuation, despite higher risks. Key drivers include US solar growth and international expansion.

Risks and Outlook

Downside risks include supply chain issues, price competition, project delays, IRA credit elimination, and tariffs. Upside opportunities include raw material cost decreases, market share gains, and strategic acquisitions. Jefferies expects steady revenue growth from $3.35bn in FY2026 to $4.33bn in FY2029, with EBITDA expansion supported by non-tracker segments.