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Luxury Advertising Expenditure Forecasts (2016)

Core Content Overview

This report from Zenith, part of Publicis Media, presents the second edition of the Luxury Advertising Expenditure Forecasts for 2016 and 2017. It provides insights into global and regional trends in luxury adspend, highlighting the shift towards digital media and the performance of different luxury subcategories.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Methodology and Scope

• The report covers 18 markets globally, including the 11 largest with over US$100 million in luxury advertising expenditure.
• Luxury adspend is defined as the combined total of luxury fashion & accessories, luxury watches & jewellery, luxury fragrances & beauty, and luxury automobiles.
• All figures are estimated net spend, converted into US dollars using the 2015 average exchange rates.
• Digital advertising is emphasized as the main driver of growth, with 97% of the total adspend increase between 2015 and 2017 attributed to it.

2. Global Adspend Trends (2015–2017)

• Global growth in luxury adspend is expected to rise from 1.9% in 2015 to 3.5% in 2017.
• Asia and Eastern Europe are expected to recover significantly, with 3.8% and 3.3% growth respectively.
• North America will maintain a steady growth rate of 3.6% annually.
• Europe will also see growth, but at a slower pace (1.8% to 2017).
• The USA and China are the main drivers of luxury adspend growth, with the USA expected to reach US$5.076 billion in 2017 and China US$2.423 billion.
• The UK is expected to overtake France in 2017, moving to fourth place in the top five luxury markets.

3. Digital Dominance

• Digital advertising is expected to dominate the luxury market by 2017, with a 32.1% share of total adspend.
• Digital will surpass TV and print as the leading medium.
• China leads in digital adspend, with a 44.7% share in 2015, expected to rise to 57.1% in 2017.
• Digital growth is significantly higher in China compared to other markets.
• Digital adspend is expected to reach US$838 million in total from 2015 to 2017.

4. Subcategory Analysis

• Luxury automotive is the largest segment, with 53% of global adspend in 2017.
• Fragrances & beauty is the second-largest, with 24% of global adspend.
• Fashion & accessories and watches & jewellery are smaller segments, with 11% and 20% of global adspend, respectively.
• Print is the dominant medium for high luxury brands (e.g., fashion & accessories, watches & jewellery), while TV and digital are more important for broad luxury (e.g., automotive, fragrances & beauty).
• Digital share varies by subcategory:
  • Luxury automotive: 27% in 2017
  • Fragrances & beauty: 20% in 2017
  • Fashion & accessories: 10% in 2017
  • Watches & jewellery: 30% in 2017

5. Regional Breakdown

• North America:
  • USA remains the largest market, with US$4.729 billion in 2015, expected to grow to US$5.076 billion in 2017.
  • Digital adspend is expected to grow from 27% in 2015 to 31.8% in 2017.
• Europe:
  • Includes France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK.
  • The UK is expected to overtake France in 2017.
• Latin America:
  • Colombia, Mexico, and Peru are included.
  • Digital adspend is growing, especially in Colombia.
• Asia:
  • Includes China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea.
  • China is the fastest-growing market, with digital adspend increasing from 44.7% in 2015 to 57.1% in 2017.
• Eastern Europe:
  • Russia is included and expected to grow from US$142 million in 2015 to US$152 million in 2017.

6. Market Share and Growth by Medium

• Print:
  • Dominates high luxury adspend (71% in 2015).
  • Losing market share to digital.
• TV:
  • Plays a significant role in broad luxury adspend.
  • Expected to be second to digital by 2017.
• Digital:
  • Becomes the leading medium in 2017 with 32.1% of total adspend.
  • Paid search is a major component, especially in South Africa, but not reported for the UK, Russia, and Singapore.
• Radio, cinema, and outdoor:
  • Remain relatively stable, with minimal growth.
  • Broad luxury spends only 9% on these channels.

7. Summary of Growth by Region (2015–2017)

• North America: Growth of 3.3% in 2017.
• Europe: Growth of 1.8% in 2017.
• Latin America: Growth of 4.7% in 2017.
• Asia: Growth of 4.8% in 2017.
• Russia: Growth of 9.9% in 2017.
• Fast Track Asia: Growth of 5.6% in 2017.
• Advanced Asia: Growth of 1.6% in 2017.
• Mature Markets: Growth of 2.7% in 2017.
• Rising Markets: Growth of 5.8% in 2017.
• World Total: Growth of 3.5% in 2017.

8. Key Trends

• Digital advertising is the primary growth driver, especially in China and Asia.
• High luxury (fashion & accessories, watches & jewellery) still relies heavily on print.
• Broad luxury (automotive, fragrances & beauty) is the main contributor to growth, with digital taking over from TV and print.
• Asia is expected to recover significantly from the slowdown in 2015.
• Eastern Europe (Russia) is a rising market with notable digital growth.
• The UK is expected to overtake France in the luxury adspend rankings by 2017.

9. Summary Table: Top 10 Luxury Ad Markets (2015–2017)

10. Digital Share by Country (2015–2017)

• China: 44.7% (2015) → 57.1% (2017)
• Malaysia: 35.5% (2015) → 35.7% (2017)
• USA: 27.0% (2015) → 31.8% (2017)
• Hong Kong: 26.0% (2015) → 39.7% (2017)
• Netherlands: 25.7% (2015) → 25.7% (2017)
• Germany: 22.2% (2015) → 24.9% (2017)
• Taiwan: 22.0% (2015) → 24.7% (2017)
• France: 15.1% (2015) → 16.5% (2017)
• Spain: 11.4% (2015) → 13.0% (2017)
• Russia: 12.1% (2015) → 12.2% (2017)

11. Conclusion

• The luxury advertising market is shifting towards digital, with 97% of the growth from 2015 to 2017 attributed to it.
• Asia and Eastern Europe are key growth regions, especially for broad luxury.
• High luxury continues to rely on print, while broad luxury is becoming more digital-centric.
• The USA and China are the main drivers of growth, with the UK expected to overtake France in the rankings.