20260708-国泰君安期货-2026_Mid-Year_Report_Release_New_Energy_Market_Outlook_Invest_10页_1mb

报告摘要

2026 Mid-Year Report Summary: New Energy Market Outlook & Investment Strategy

Disclaimer

This report is intended solely for the reference of professional investors of Guotai Junan Futures. It is not directed at or intended to violate any laws and regulations in any region, country, city, or other legal jurisdiction. The report does not constitute a recommendation for specific business activities or investment advice. Readers are advised to make their own investment decisions based on their risk tolerance and bear the corresponding investment risks independently.

Electricity Market Outlook

Core Content

Supply and Demand: National electricity supply and demand are expected to remain balanced with a modest surplus in the second half of 2026.
Supply Side:
- Thermal power: New installations expected to reach 90-100 GW, potentially up to 103 GW in a high scenario.
- Wind and solar: Total installations expected to reach 305-335 GW, still the main growth driver.
- Hydro and nuclear: Expected to add about 11-13 GW and 7-8 GW respectively, contributing to low-carbon and base load supply.
Demand Side:
- Industrial restructuring, emerging manufacturing, information services, and summer heat loads continue to support demand.
- Under a 4.75% GDP growth assumption, overall social electricity consumption is expected to grow by 5.3% in 2026.

Key Views

Price Trends: The second half of 2026 will exhibit a structural pattern of "pressure on electricity energy prices, rising system operation costs, and limited decline in end-user prices."
Regional Price Differentiation:
- Guangdong: High price elasticity due to gas and electricity costs, high-temperature loads, and external electricity disturbances.
- Shandong: Spot price center is expected to be higher than Shanxi and western Inner Mongolia, with clear peak-valley differentiation.
- Shanxi: Electricity prices remain low, but system operation fees provide a cost floor.
- Western Inner Mongolia: New energy pricing power is strengthening, leading to significant low-price pressure.

New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market Outlook

Core Content

Global Sales: Expected to increase by 4% year-on-year to 21.79 million units in 2026.
China's Domestic Demand: Expected to decline by 7% to 12.94 million units, but total sales including exports are projected to rise by 7% to 17.54 million units.
Export Growth: Overseas sales are expected to increase by 24% year-on-year to 4.74 million units, with strong month-on-month growth of 59%.
Power Battery Cells:
- Output is estimated to reach 1674 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 26%.
- Production volume is expected to exceed 1700 GWh, driven by increased demand in the passenger and commercial sectors.

Key Views

Domestic Demand: Over-exploitation in the lower-income market is expected to be mitigated by the return of consumption power and rural market promotion.
Global Demand: The global demand for power battery installations is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year, with an additional 15 percentage points from end-users.
Policy Impact: Energy transition policies remain a key driver for the cost-effectiveness of NEVs, despite the easing of the war and drop in oil prices.

Energy Storage Market Outlook

Core Content

Global Installations: Reached 306 GWh in 2025, up 62% year-on-year.
2026 Projections:
- Domestic new installations: Expected to reach 300 GWh, a 72% increase.
- United States: New installations expected at 69 GWh, up 38%.
- Europe: New installations expected at 50 GWh, up 83%.
- Emerging Markets: Chile, Australia, the Middle East, and India are key contributors, with new installations expected at 94 GWh, a 75% increase.
- Total Global Installations: Projected to reach 513 GWh in 2026, a 68% increase.

Key Views

Inventory Pressure: The inventory coefficient is expected to face downward pressure, with a neutral scenario of a 2% decline and a pessimistic scenario of a 10% decline.
Cell Shipments:
- Neutral scenario: 1015 GWh, up 60% year-on-year.
- Pessimistic scenario: 930 GWh, up 46% year-on-year.
Market Outlook: The probability of the neutral scenario occurring is higher.

Lithium Carbonate Market Outlook

Core Content

Price Trends: Lithium prices are expected to remain highly volatile and trade within a converging triangle pattern.
Supply Outlook:
- Quarterly supply is expected to rise from 450 kt to 500-560 kt LCE from Q2 to Q4 2026.
- Global supply is projected to reach 2,803 kt LCE in 2027, with YoY growth accelerating from 24% to 33%.

Key Views

Demand Drivers: New battery capacity additions in China are expected to exceed 713 GWh, providing strong demand support.
Inventory and Surplus: A global lithium deficit of 82 kt is expected in 2026, but a surplus of 228 kt is anticipated in 2027.
Risk Factors: Changes in battery anti-excessive competition policies and approval conditions.

Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon Market Outlook

Core Content

Supply Trends:
- Silicon metal: Supply will be driven by production resumption in the Southwest during the high-water season and stable operations in the Northwest.
- Polysilicon: Upstream plants are expected to resume production as the high-water season begins.
Demand Trends:
- Polysilicon demand remains weak due to slowing PV installation growth.
- The silicone sector is implementing self-regulated production cuts.

Key Views

Price Range: Main silicon metal contract is expected to trade between 8,200-9,000 RMB/tonne.
Polysilicon Price Range: Projected to trade between 32,000-40,000 RMB/tonne.
Market Volatility: Increased volatility is expected due to capital trading on energy consumption and policy news.
Risk Factors:
1. Production cuts by upstream silicon metal plants exceeding expectations.
2. Further tightening of energy consumption policies for polysilicon.
3. A sharper-than-expected decline in end-market demand.

Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Outlook

Core Content

Nickel Market:
- The pace of nickel prices will be anchored to Indonesia's quota approval process.
- Moderate quota release is expected, but not exceeding 30%.
- Nickel prices are expected to range between 120,000-140,000 yuan/ton in Q3.
Stainless Steel Market:
- Stainless steel prices are expected to range between 13,500-16,000 yuan/ton in Q3.
- Attention should be paid to the risk of speculation over Indonesia's 2027 quotas.

Key Views

Speculative Factors: Quotas and sulfur logistics are the main drivers of nickel price direction.
Cost Trends: HPAL production costs are converging toward higher spot costs due to high sulfur prices.
Long-Term Outlook: If sulfur prices are pressured downward by industrial waste slag and pyrite-based acid production, Class I nickel may narrow its price discount to Class II nickel in 2027.
Risk Factors:
- Indonesia's nickel ore policies exceeding expectations, including supplementary quotas and taxation.
- Overseas macro risks, including Fed interest rate risks.

Summary of Key Themes

Electricity: Structural rebalancing of prices, regional differentiation, and continued growth in renewable energy installations.
NEVs: Domestic demand moderation, global growth supported by energy transition policies, and strong export performance.
Energy Storage: Continued growth, with emerging markets as key contributors, and inventory pressure expected in 2027.
Lithium Carbonate: Volatility expected, with a potential surplus in 2027.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Inventory accumulation in H1, with a shift to destocking in Q4, and policy-driven demand.
Nickel and Stainless Steel: Quota dynamics and sulfur logistics are central, with attention to 2027 policy expectations.

Analysts: