2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Case_for_a_General_Allocation_of_SDRs_During_the_Tenth_Basic_Period_30页_874kb

Summary of the IMF Report on SDR Allocations

Core Content

The document outlines the IMF's consideration of a potential general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) during the tenth basic period (2012–2016). It details the legal framework, the rationale for SDR allocations, and the implications for global reserves and monetary policy.

Main Points

1. Legal Framework and Timeline

• The SDR allocation process operates within Article XVIII of the IMF's Articles of Agreement.
• The ninth basic period (2007–2011) is ending, and the tenth basic period (2012–2016) will begin on January 1, 2012.
• The Managing Director must submit a proposal for an allocation or cancellation no later than six months before the end of each basic period.
• A proposal requires Executive Board concurrence and a 85% majority of the total voting power of SDR Department participants for approval.
• If no proposal with broad support can be made, the Managing Director must report this to the Board of Governors and Executive Board.

2. Consultation and Support for Allocation

• The Acting Managing Director conducted consultations to assess broad support for an allocation.
• An informal Executive Board meeting on June 23, 2011, considered the case for an SDR allocation.
• While there was openness among many Directors to consider an allocation, it was deemed premature to propose one due to ongoing discussions on SDR reform and the need to evaluate the 2009 allocation experience.
• Therefore, no proposal was made by June 30, 2011, for the tenth basic period.

3. Rationale for Allocation

• A general allocation is justified by the existence of a long-term global need to supplement existing reserve assets.
• The current global economic environment is uncertain, with risks such as commodity price volatility, capital flow reversals, public debt concerns, and growth risks.
• The updated reserve demand estimates suggest an additional need of $800–1,600 billion over the next five years.
• A new reserve adequacy metric indicates a demand of $550 billion over the next five years, with the potential to rise to $1.8 trillion over the next decade.

4. Supply of Reserve Assets

• The supply of reserve assets is limited, especially in the short to medium term.
• SDRs are considered superior to other reserve assets due to their cost-free nature, continuous availability, and liquidity.
• They do not contribute to global imbalances and provide a better store of value than individual basket components.

5. Inflationary Impact

• There is no significant risk of inflation from an SDR allocation, provided policymakers respond appropriately.
• SDRs would not lead to net monetary creation unless they are converted into actual currencies.
• The policy response to the allocation is expected to be neutral or inflationary only in the case of excess demand.

6. No Case for Cancellation

• The existence of a global need implies no case for cancellation of previous allocations.
• The 2009 allocation was made to meet an immediate expression of a long-term need.
• While the global economy has improved since the crisis, uncertainty remains regarding medium-term adjustments.

Key Information

• SDRs are an international reserve asset created in 1969.
• They are allocated in proportion to quotas and can be used as a potential claim on freely usable currencies.
• The global need for reserves is determined by standardized metrics including import coverage, short-term external debt, and broad money.
• SDRs are not a currency or a claim on the IMF and are only held by SDR Department participants and official holders.
• The 10-year reserve demand is estimated at $2,187–3,357 billion, while the 5-year estimate is $824–1,571 billion.
• The new reserve adequacy metric suggests $550 billion in reserve demand over five years.
• SDRs could help attenuate inflationary concerns by staggering the allocation over three years and postponing the first tranche to 2014.
• The Executive Board may request further discussions on SDR allocations at any time.

Conclusion

The document concludes that while no allocation proposal was made for the tenth basic period, further discussion on SDR allocations is open if and when appropriate. The legal and policy framework remains in place, and the global need for reserves continues to be a key consideration for future allocations.